Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

Three things --

1) the SE ridge is forecasted to be much weaker via the long range teleconnections than it is on Christmas Day.
2) We aren't in a healthy -EPO pattern on Christmas (we are in a positive EPO), and for our part of the world, a healthy -EPO would flex on the SE Ridge (especially a weaker one in the forecast)
3) Healthy - PNA is delivering our Christmas trof out West.

A look at the long range teleconnections centered on the first week of January has the NAO relaxing big time from +2-3 SDs to less than 1 sd from normal. Meanwhile, we get a favorable Pacific.

I know you've been doing this much longer than me, and have an incredible wealth of knowledge, but I don't think I'm missing anything here....

I'm not saying that winter is over, merely that the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks looks more warm than cold. Certainly, I see no sign of another significant Arctic blast through early January. And, of course, you can't really believe the specifics of the model projections beyond this week (too much). Generally, though, we'll be in a fast-moving flow pattern (zonal), which will make it hard to get some really cold air south to Texas in the coming weeks.

This isn't so unusual. We typically see a big cold blast near or before Christmas followed by a warm period. The warm period is usually followed by more cold, though often not as cold as pre-Christmas. It could be a pattern that would produce ice/snow in Texas by mid January or beyond.

[JDawg512]

It's looking like we'll see at least a couple decent shots of rain starting Friday through Christmas. Nothing major but anthing between 0.25-0.75 is fine by me. 1+inches would be a Christmas present.

[Ntxw]

I think the children are looking for some warm weather after this past weekend's Arctic blast. Time for some Christmas heat!

Them fightin words ! Come'on your honor you must give Portastorm our resident snow miser a chance. His confidence has melted over the years to little more than a bout of freezing drizzle. We can settle this diplomatically.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Just read that snow fell in the Sahara for the first time in 37 years. If the Sahara can get snow, surely Austin, TX can.

[tolakram]

Posting this to the most active winter thread.

 https://twitter.com/simon_rp84/status/811582964404486144

[JDawg512]

I think the children are looking for some warm weather after this past weekend's Arctic blast. Time for some Christmas heat!

Them fightin words ! Come'on your honor you must give Portastorm our resident snow miser a chance. His confidence has melted over the years to little more than a bout of freezing drizzle. We can settle this diplomatically.

(Cue dramatic music)
https://youtu.be/diS9mTaZIlM


It's too late Ntwx. The Heat Miser has already begun his attack. It's short sleeve weather today. We will have to wait and see if the Snow Miser can counter it...

[orangeblood]

Long range models are showing signs this Warm Up might be short-lived, 10-14 days....if you like cold and live in the central US, this is exactly what you want to see on the Long Range ensembles

This type of 500 mb pattern will eat away at that Southeast Ridge


Pretty impressive anomalies for a 5 day average

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Ha, you beat me to it! I was just about to post that. It appears after a brief mild period, our chances for more wintry weather will rise again!

January 2007 has been showing up in the Day 11+ Analogs for several days. While no two patterns are alike, some will recall the January 14th through 18th, 2007 period across Texas and much of the United States.

We had a multi-day winter storm here in Austin with sleet and freezing rain. I remember it well. We had 80 consecutive hours of at/below freezing as well. And you folks in Houston seemed to have it as bad if not worse than south central Texas. Oh my ... that would be kinda fun to have a storm like that again. It's been so long since we've had a real winter storm down here and we have so many new people who have moved here (unfortunately) in the last few years ... they would be in shock!

Yeah, we got a dog that weekend. She would not go outside to do her business. Had to melt some. I was off work from Martin Luther King Day thru that Wednesday. It was awesome!

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe...bicycle riding weather.



"@BigJoeBastardi: RT @RyanMaue: Brutal cold -->
Calm night in Surgut, Russia
Currently -58°F ... has been as cold as -62°F during last 72-hours...."

[Snowman67]

Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe...bicycle riding weather.



"@BigJoeBastardi: RT @RyanMaue: Brutal cold -->
Calm night in Surgut, Russia
Currently -58°F ... has been as cold as -62°F during last 72-hours...."

Let's start a "Go Fund Me account" to raise money to send Wxman57 there on a bike trip

[lrak]

You got problems in your life of weather
You got a broken heart
He's double dealin' with your best friend
That's when the teardrops start, fella
Pick up the phone
I'm here alone
Or make a social call
Come right in
Forget about him
We'll have ourselves a ball

Dirty Deeds DONE DIRT CHEAP

Dirty deeds and they're done dirt cheap
Dirty deeds and they're done dirt cheap

Mr. Wxman57

[WeatherGuesser]

I think the children are looking for some warm weather after this past weekend's Arctic blast. Time for some Christmas heat!

Right. Think of the kids. They don't need frostbite.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon ECMWF and ECMWF EPS solutions suggest a strong shot of Arctic air arrives later next week prior to New Years Eve.

[gpsnowman]

You got problems in your life of weather
You got a broken heart
He's double dealin' with your best friend
That's when the teardrops start, fella
Pick up the phone
I'm here alone
Or make a social call
Come right in
Forget about him
We'll have ourselves a ball

Dirty Deeds DONE DIRT CHEAP

Dirty deeds and they're done dirt cheap
Dirty deeds and they're done dirt cheap

Mr. Wxman57

Haha I like it. Concrete shoes, cyanide, TNT!!!! Now bring on a New Years front!

[orangeblood]

The afternoon ECMWF and ECMWF EPS solutions suggest a strong shot of Arctic air arrives later next week prior to New Years Eve.

Even stronger shot the following week....McFarland alert as well, 576 Ridge poking up into Alaska towards the end of it's run - 850 cold anomalies of 40-50 Deg F below normal showing up in the central plains

[lrak]

The afternoon ECMWF and ECMWF EPS solutions suggest a strong shot of Arctic air arrives later next week prior to New Years Eve.

Even stronger shot the following week....McFarland alert as well, 576 Ridge poking up into Alaska towards the end of it's run

Woohoo because that last front kept S TX in the 40s for 3 days straight which made the GOM water too COLD to surf. So now I'm all in for whatever mother nature has to throw at us

[Portastorm]

The afternoon ECMWF and ECMWF EPS solutions suggest a strong shot of Arctic air arrives later next week prior to New Years Eve.

Even stronger shot the following week....McFarland alert as well, 576 Ridge poking up into Alaska towards the end of it's run

Woohoo because that last front kept S TX in the 40s for 3 days straight which made the GOM water too COLD to surf. So now I'm all in for whatever mother nature has to throw at us

Brother, we got to get you active during the tropical season. You can do a Texas Gulf Coast Surf Report on our Texas Summer weather thread.

[lrak]

Portastorm I would be honored to help! My knowledge is 0 to none regarding real weather statements with all the big words and maps but I'll do my best I know enough about our local weather to determine surf conditions, and I've studied a little on the southern hemi swells that hit the west coast of Mexico.

[gatorcane]

Mischief long-range GFS parallel

And wintry precip for Dallas area hour 336

[wxman57]

It's sad when you winter-lovers have to pin your hopes on the 384-hr GFS panel...

Meanwhile, it's a nice evening (70 deg) and I think we'll go for a walk to look at Christmas lights (in shorts). There's a giant Gumby down the street (about 30 ft tall).