Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

It's good to see the OP guidance point toward what the Ensembles have been saying over the Pacific. This at least makes me feel a little better that the warm up is transient between a stable background pattern that has settled on the Aleutian ridge for winter. Unfortunate Christmas had to be the in the middle of a relaxing pattern though. I'm hoping models are completely wrong for the weekend system and that it can yet dig a little further south and move more east. At least some cold would be nice...


No doubt OLR has been strongest over Indonesia and southeast Asia. This connects well with the Aleutian ridge and ridging over the dateline favored in weak Nina events. So you can believe ensembles will be right.

[wxman57]

Just looked at the 12Z GFS-Para. Quite an impressive front toward the end. The only problem is that it's beyond 10 days out, and the previous run had lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s during that period.

Meanwhile, my favorite Christmas decorations. I saw the guy putting Gumby up last week and asked if he'd ever considered adding Pokey. He said he'd been thinking about it. I grew up watching Gumby & Pokey. We make it a point to pass by his house frequently this time of year to see Gumby.

[Tireman4]

I'm Gumby dang it (Eddie Murphy SNL Skit)

[ravyrn]

Just looked at the 12Z GFS-Para. Quite an impressive front toward the end. The only problem is that it's beyond 10 days out, and the previous run had lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s during that period.

Meanwhile, my favorite Christmas decorations. I saw the guy putting Gumby up last week and asked if he'd ever considered adding Pokey. He said he'd been thinking about it. I grew up watching Gumby & Pokey. We make it a point to pass by his house frequently this time of year to see Gumby.

http://i66.tinypic.com/wmb98g.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/5f5928.jpg

December 28th is my 34th birthday. I'd very much like a week of your alter ego for a birthday present

[Honey'sForecast]

I'm really hoping that the rain stays in the forecast for Christmas. I moved to north Texas from Los Angeles in 2010 and have come to loathe warm and sunny Christmas days; that's all we ever had out there and having them here is even worse since the never ending summers are taxing. Will the clouds stay in the forecast? I mean we can more easily pretend that it's cold out if it's cloudy and dreary.

[Brent]

GFS looks quite unsettled next week after Christmas too. Appears the front never entirely clears until the end of the week

Much colder and active approaching New Years weekend and stays cold into 2017(fantasy land but yeah). No obvious winter storms but a couple are close

0z Euro also in agreement that towards New Years it's much colder

[Ntxw]

0z Euro is a major EPO break around new years day. Usual caveats apply, but big cold diving south per the run. Perhaps the model will vary on it run to run but evidence towards another arctic outbreak is looming. Ensembles having been telling us to look for it to come.

[Snowman67]

0z Euro is a major EPO break around new years day. Usual caveats apply, but big cold diving south per the run. Perhaps the model will vary on it run to run but evidence towards another arctic outbreak is looming. Ensembles having been telling us to look for it to come.

Even if it is in "la la" land, still good to see the potential of a pattern change.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yep, the dam breaks

[gpsnowman]

Kinda quiet in here today. Must be some serious Christmas shopping being done. Is the New Year cold front still on the models?

[ronyan]

Kinda quiet in here today. Must be some serious Christmas shopping being done. Is the New Year cold front still on the models?

I finished my shopping early, the front on the 12z Euro.

[Portastorm]

Kinda quiet in here today. Must be some serious Christmas shopping being done. Is the New Year cold front still on the models?

A lot of us are busy working and shopping. For me, I'm out looking for something special for that special someone -- wxman57. Like a nice Arctic cold front with two days of a wintry mix which would fall on Austin and Houston!

[Brent]

Looks pretty boring til the end of next week(GFS says even warmer after Christmas!)... FWD says the severe threat on Christmas has diminished... hopefully the LR is right.

[Ntxw]

There is a risk in the LR though. Eastern trough and western ridge could send the core of cold air to the east.

[Brent]

There is a risk in the LR though. Eastern trough and western ridge could send the core of cold air to the east.

I was thinking that... the upper air charts I saw look to favor east of us so I'm not convinced yet, but it is a 10-day map which usually is wrong anyway.

[STX Expat]

I'll be traveling home to San Antonio today so I wanted to wish all here a Blessed and Merry Christmas/peaceful holiday season. Yes, even the heat miser himself.

May all have a prosperous and maybe wintry New Year! Thanks, S2K!

[wxman57]

A lot of us are busy working and shopping. For me, I'm out looking for something special for that special someone -- wxman57. Like a nice Arctic cold front with two days of a wintry mix which would fall on Austin and Houston!

Why, thank you, Portastorm! I do like snow. The only problem is that the temperature has to be so cold for it to snow. If only it could snow in July with temps in the 90s...

Merry Christmas, to you!

[Brent]

Happy New Year! Front on NYE spreads cold everywhere and it stays largely cold the rest of the run

[wxman57]

Happy New Year! Front on NYE spreads cold everywhere and it stays largely cold the rest of the run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_46.png

That equates to lows in the upper 30s and highs in the 53-56 degree range for New Year's. Certainly colder than it will be all of next week, but only a little below normal. Problem is the source region of that air, at least initially, will be the NE Pacific and SW Canada.

[Brent]

quite a few sub-freezing lows at DFW in that timeframe... even some in the mid 20s. Highs some days around 40.