WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Here is a Wind Probability map for selected cites and how they might fare.



No recurve as all agencies are almost coming in agreement as to where this might make landfall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The STR is building up, a Philippine hit is inevitable, either South Luzon or Eastern Visayas and probably exit thru Mindoro

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ensembles starting to trend, just like Alyono has said

[mrbagyo]

Microwave eye, can't wait to see its appearance under the WPAC sunshine.

This must be upgraded into typhoon category soon.

Ensembles starting to trend, just like Alyono has said

http://i.imgur.com/czpqsUG.jpg

That's eerily similar to Durian's track.
If that track really do happen, Manila would barely feel Nockten (provided it remains fairly compact - much like Durian, otherwise - that could be another storey)

[euro6208]

Peak intensity increased to 105 knots before a Catanduanes landfall.

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING OF CENTRAL CONVECTION
AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. A 221627Z AMSR-2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP, TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INDICATIONS THAT A MICROWAVE EYE
IS STARTING TO FORM. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALSO SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO
INCREASED, RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS). TS NOCK-TEN IS
LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND PRODUCT AND THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE THAT A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE MAY ALSO
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS), DUE TO
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE, PRIOR TO
REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 72. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COTC AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A 90-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETE A RE-CURVE DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF VIGOROUS NORTHEAST MONSOON FLOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. TS 30W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES,
DECREASING BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120, WHERE IT WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER, DRIER AIR AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST SURGE. THE DIVERGENCE IN DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS HAS
INCREASED TO 275-NM AT TAU 120 DUE TO COMPETING FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
STARTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND SOUTH OF SUBIC BAY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES
IN THE MODEL TRACKERS. DUE TO THIS INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FOUR
FORECASTS, JUST SOUTH OF THE MOST RECENT CONSENSUS TRACK, WITH LOW
OVERALL CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 DEC 2016 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 11:08:55 N Lon : 134:30:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 981.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.4

Center Temp : -68.1C Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.1 degrees

****************************************************

[mrbagyo]

Poleward outflow is now improving which would aid intensification and it would cross the magical waters of the Philippine Sea.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 230600Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS NOCK-TEN REMAINS IN A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND A
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS), DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
PRIOR TO REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES. AFTERWARDS TS NOCK-TEN WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
THE NORTHEAST MONSOON FLOW AND ENCOUNTER COOLER, DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE LONG RANGE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 230918

A. TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 12.37N

D. 131.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN
E# AND DT (-0.5 ADJ FOR CMG) OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0.
DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0512Z 12.07N 132.20E ATMS
23/0600Z 12.02N 132.27E SSMI
23/0633Z 12.20N 131.90E MMHS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 230907
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 12.3N

D. 131.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...B EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W WITH 1.0
SUBTRACTED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET=4.0 AND
PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[1900hurricane]

Officially a typhoon now.

TY 1626 (Nock-ten)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 December 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 December>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°35' (12.6°)
E131°00' (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°05' (13.1°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E127°25' (127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E124°30' (124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°00' (14.0°)
E119°30' (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[ManilaTC]

JTWC now also has Nock-Ten as a Typhoon with 70kts.

30W NOCK-TEN 161223 1200 12.7N 131.1E WPAC 70 970

[1900hurricane]

It also appears an eye may be trying to emerge.

[euro6208]

Much stronger peak with 115 knots!





WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A
NEWLY-FORMED 10-NM EYE (AS OF 23/1320Z). A 231235Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. TY NOCK-TEN REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES,
BASED ON THE IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE. TY 30W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS WITH RI EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 06
TO 24 HOURS.
B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TY NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RI AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND AFTER TAU 36, AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN LUZON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR MANILA
AT TAU 72 OF ONLY 83-NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE DOMINANT NORTHEAST FLOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY (BUT REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT) AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

Boom.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely around 110 knots now with a CMG CDO and an OW eye on BD.

[mrbagyo]

Typhoon Durian - 10 years ago.


Nock-Ten : present

[Alyono]

remember the lag time. May only be 80-85 kts. Winds take a bit of time to catch up to Dvorak signature

[Cunxi Huang]

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 3
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
finalTNumberType: 1

How come JMA results in T5.0/5.0 at 18Z Dvorak analysis??? Cloud Pattern Type of DT# is 3 (Eye Pattern), DT would be at least 6.0 (Ragged eye, no EA)...