WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Up to 130 knots!

30W NOCK-TEN 161224 0600 13.3N 128.2E WPAC 130 926

[1900hurricane]

Outer eyewall clearly developing.

[euro6208]

Catanduanes in for a ride.

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED
WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5
(127-150 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU
24, AND THEN DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON THROUGH MANILA BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-TEN WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
LAND. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EMERGE OVER THE SCS AT TYPHOON
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING
SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
SURGE OVER THE SCS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND STRONG VWS. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Dr Jeff Masters has a wonderful blog up.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-christmas-day-typhoon-headed-for-the-philippines

[mrbagyo]

Strongest wind gust ever recorded in Catanduanes and the whole Philippines happened on November 30, 2006.
Typhoon Durian - 320 kph.

Dr Jeff Masters has a wonderful blog up.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-christmas-day-typhoon-headed-for-the-philippines

Dr. Masters forgot about the "Quatico Typhoon".

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is what Alyono pointed out days ago

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 240920
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 24/0830Z

C. 13.3N

D. 127.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG WITH 0.5 ADDED
FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 6.9, WHICH
JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME. MET=5.5 AND PT=6.0. FT IS
BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[CrazyC83]

Eye much less defined now - ERC looks to be underway.

[mrbagyo]

Eye much less defined now - ERC looks to be underway.

Convection starting to get colder, eye beginning to reappear... I think it's nearing completion or maybe it's done already. We just need a new MW pass to confirm.

[Alyono]

radar is showing a well defined eye

[Dave C]

radar is showing a well defined eye

Yep, latest sat pic. shows well defined eye again, worse case scenario for the coming landfall. Aloyno, do you have a link for that radar?

[1900hurricane]

radar is showing a well defined eye

Yep, latest sat pic. shows well defined eye again, worse case scenario for the coming landfall. Aloyno, do you have a link for that radar?

Here's one on the PAGASA home page.

[Dave C]

Last few frames of sat. loop shows a wsw trend, looks like another small eye, kinda like when Andrew went through ERC just before landfalling Florida.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

About 15 mins behind realtime loop shows a full eye and appears to be a very compact cyclone.
http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/map.php

[mrbagyo]

It remains a very compact storm.
This type of structure is quite unsustainable. I wont be surprised if we see another round of EWRC.

[1900hurricane]

This is what I got too, but wouldn't that yield a DT of 6.5 after a 0.5 eye adjustment?

TXPQ27 KNES 242112
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 24/2030Z

C. 13.6N

D. 126.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...THE EYE IS OW AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE WITH A SURROUNDING
RING TEMPERATURE OF CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1820Z 13.5N 126.6E SSMI


...SZATANEK

[euro6208]

Remains 130 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
SUPER-DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 7-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED VERY INTENSE EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
AS EVIDENCED IN TPW IMAGERY, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND AFTER TAU 12 THEN DRAG
ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON INCLUDING BICOL REGION, PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF MANILA BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-
TEN WILL INITIALLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE AT 80-KNOT TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
SURGE OVER THE SCS. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE
LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2016 Time : 204000 UTC
Lat : 13:38:48 N Lon : 126:23:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.8mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Merry Christmas Philippines!

[euro6208]

Masters has another great blog up.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/super-typhoon-nockten-heads-for-a-christmas-day-landfall-in-the-phili