WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

[shah83]

18z HWRF has an...interesting track...

[mrbagyo]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Yellow Evan]

ADT suggests eye is WMG.

TPPN10 PGTW 250022

A. SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 25/0000Z

C. 13.52N

D. 125.91E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1900Z 13.48N 126.60E MMHS


LEMBKE

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[1900hurricane]

ADT suggests eye is WMG.

TPPN10 PGTW 250022

A. SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 25/0000Z

C. 13.52N

D. 125.91E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1900Z 13.48N 126.60E MMHS


LEMBKE

Looks like it just missed at 00Z, but it does appear to be clearing out more now. JTWC up to 135 kt for 00Z.

[Alyono]

radar is showing that a new eyewall is forming

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SUPER-DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED VERY INTENSE IR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND BEFORE TAU 12 THEN
DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON INCLUDING BICOL REGION, PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF MANILA BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-
TEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT 80-KNOT TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN
IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER TAU
48, STY 30W WILL BEGIN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON SURGE OVER THE SCS. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR
AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THEN FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 DEC 2016 Time : 044000 UTC
Lat : 13:34:24 N Lon : 125:12:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.2 degrees

****************************************************

[mrbagyo]

Virac is down to 999 mbs per wunderground

Huge outer eyewall.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 14 NAUTICAL MILE WIDE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY,
AND ON ANALYSIS OF A COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGE FROM THE VIRAC DOPPLER
SITE ON CATANDUANES ISLAND, PHILIPPINES. ADDITIONALLY, A 0354Z AMSR-
2 COMPOSITE 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM,
WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A VERY INTENSE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AT 0300Z, WHEN ALL REPORTING AGENCIES REACHED T7.0 (140
KNOTS), BUT OVER THE PREVIOUS THREE HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT, LEADING TO LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
FIRST HINTS OF LAND INTERACTION ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO MANIFEST
THEMSELVES, AS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS INTENSE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HAS EXCELLENT DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND IS SITUATED OVER WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. STY NOCK-TEN CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 30W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
HOURS TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CATANDUANES ISLAND BY 25/1200Z THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZON, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) BY ABOUT TAU 30. STY NOCK-TEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND, AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU
48, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE CONVECTION, AND THE CENTER WILL CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THEN FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEGREE OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Millions of people in the path of this monster,

First, Virac, the most populated city in Catanduanes bullseye. Then to Southern Luzon with Metro Manila.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Closing in on Virac.

Pressure of 982mb and winds of 90 mph already observed.

[euro6208]

At 06:30 PM today,Typhoon #NinaPH has made landfall over Catanduanes. PAGASA-DOST%u2014 PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa) December 25, 2016

[euro6208]

Looks like the eye passed over Virac and Catanduanes fairly quick and is now racing towards Camarines Sur.

[euro6208]

Historic Christmas Day typhoon...

[mrbagyo]

Whew, it has gotten more symetrical despite land interaction.

[1900hurricane]

I wasn't watching radar (just woke up), but based on microwave, it appears eyewall replacement may have just completed by landfall.