WPAC: INVEST 93W

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.5N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270404Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM, BUT
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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20161227 2030 5.9 -150.3 Too Weak 93W 93W
20161227 1430 5.1 -150.1 T1.0/1.0 93W 93W
20161227 0830 6.2 -152.0 T1.0/1.0 93W 93W

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[Digital-TC-Chaser]

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Looking like a very wet New Year's Eve for our brothers and sisters in Palau and Yap.

ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF treks this westward with little to no development and loses latitude as it passes south of the two Western Micronesian Islands and brings it very near North Maluku Indonesia!

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NWS:

Showers and thunderstorms are seen near Koror near a surface trough
south of the island. A tropical disturbance south of Chuuk is
generating more showers and thunderstorms across Chuuk State. This
disturbance will keep wet weather over Chuuk at least through
tonight before it heads slowly west. Trade-wind pattern from the
east will bring showery weather to Chuuk late in the week.

Models show this disturbance heading west...but keeping south of Yap
and Koror late in the week. Based on latest model run, Koror could
see some showers from this disturbance, but models maintain little
to no significant development with this invest area and thus keeping
the bulk of weather to the south. Will have to keep a close watch on
this disturbance the next couple days for any changes. Winds and
seas will increase this weekend as a result of the increased
pressure gradient as this disturbance nears Yap and Koror.

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000
WWPQ80 PGUM 280401
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST WED DEC 28 2016

PMZ161-PMZ171-PMZ172-290400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
200 PM CHST WED DEC 28 2016

...CIRCULATION MOVING WEST THROUGH CHUUK STATE...

A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER IS FOUND ABOUT 200
MILES WEST OF CHUUK NEAR 7N149E. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT IN A LARGE AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 MILES OF THE CENTER.

THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AND AWAY
FROM WENO CHUUK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT CHUUK...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
KOROR SOMETIME AS EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. YAP COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN INCLEMENT WEATHER IF THE
CIRCULATION SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER NORTH. STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO NEAR
HAZARDOUS LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK.

WHILE MODELS SHOW JUST LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT THE
MOMENT...THIS CIRCULATION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE FOR ANY SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

AYDLETT

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 153.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272345Z AMSU METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM
AND INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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Poof...