Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2221 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:07 pm

Looking at the Skew-Ts the 12z Euro would have us start off with light freezing rain then turning into a light sleet with most the precip falling as snow. Still near 10 days out though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2222 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:10 pm

Meanwhile, the unseasonable warmth continues. Here in Austin we've blown today's record high of 77 out of the water. It's 84 at the airport and 79 at Camp Mabry at 2 pm. Temps may go higher. This will be the second day in the last week where we've set new record high temps. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2223 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:23 pm

Portastorm wrote:Meanwhile, the unseasonable warmth continues. Here in Austin we've blown today's record high of 77 out of the water. It's 84 at the airport and 79 at Camp Mabry at 2 pm. Temps may go higher. This will be the second day in the last week where we've set new record high temps. :(


Exceptional warmth has been unreal since Christmas. Makes you wonder if we could see temp swings at some point like 1996.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2224 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:32 pm

:uarrow: Yeah it is too warm. I am wearing shorts, t-shirt, and sandals this afternoon. Yuck. I really hope all this verifies and has staying power.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2225 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:36 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS is very cold even down to the coast next Thursday a hint of frozen precip appears from Austin to Houston


Oh yeah ... this 12z GFS run is much colder than the 6z and 0z for late next week. Austin low temps next Friday would be in low to mid 20s. Earlier runs had upper 20s to near 30.


We have already gotten down to 21 here with that last Arctic outbreak. Bring it on! I'm tired of wearing shorts and tshirts in late December.
:roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2226 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:42 pm

Here is (my drawing) of the 12z Euro output for the winter storm at 228 hours.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2227 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:54 pm

Seeing some of these runs of the GFS and the Euro kind of peaked my interest. :cold: :cold:

I've been lurking though the fog and muck here on the coast. :roll:

Time for old man winter to come in with a bang!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2228 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:19 pm

I am interested in seeing the next two Euro runs(if it keeps the storm) and seeing if it has only one storm, or if it has split energies like the GFS does. There have been 2 other times(when I was in Ohio) where one model showed the energies being split while the other model showed one phased storm. Each time the split energy outcome won out. The first time this happened sucked, the southern energy was way too fast and it gave me rain, the northern energy was too weak so all we got was cold air. However, the 2nd time it happened gave us our max potential of snow, since the main storm cut west of us we were going to see WAA, we got 2 inches of snow before the WAA arrived but it all melted. Had it been one phased storm, WAA would have been worse and we likely would have only seen rain. But, since the storm had split energies, the 2nd one arrived after cold settled in and we ended up getting an overproducing storm that dropped 4-5 inches of snow. In our case here though, if the Storm were to go south of us like currently modeled, we would want a phased negative tilt storm that could pull in the cold air and wrap overflowing moisture instead of 2 weaker un-phased storms.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2229 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Exceptional warmth has been unreal since Christmas. Makes you wonder if we could see temp swings at some point like 1996.


I think any and all Dallas Cowboys fans will like the mention of 1996.

Right after Troy, Emmitt, Michael and Jay won Super Bowl XXX over Pittsburgh on Jan. 28, 1996, the gates to the arctic tundra opened up if memory serves correct.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2230 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:56 pm

:uarrow: yes :cheesy:

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2231 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:01 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: yes :cheesy:

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance


GFS agrees as well, it really opens the Siberian gates over to North America, flooding Canada with incredibly anomalous cold...check out the Yukon, greater than -50 F in some areas. Just look at the streak coming out of the Arctic circle, this could go to the extreme option for the lower 48

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2232 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:09 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote::uarrow: yes :cheesy:

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance


GFS agrees as well, it really opens the Siberian gates over to North America, flooding Canada with incredibly anomalous cold...check out the Yukon, greater than -50 F in some areas. Just look at the streak coming out of the Arctic circle, this could go to the extreme option for the lower 48

Image


Yeah, mid next week is not yet cross polar flow but cold enough for sub freezing days. It is the days to a week after that the real cross flow happens and Siberian air settles in. Basically December option but January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2233 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:26 pm

Wxman 57 has been strangely silent. Is he booking a short notice trip to the equator? :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2234 Postby ronyan » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:27 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Wxman 57 has been strangely silent. Is he booking a short notice trip to the equator? :ggreen:


He's probably out enjoying the warmth now while he has the chance. He did say the other day that he wasn't optimistic about where this is heading. :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2235 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:34 pm

Ooh... snow in Austin? What's that? (18z GFS) :lol:

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2236 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:37 pm

6 inches of snow in San Antonio on the gfs haha
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2237 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:51 pm

:uarrow:

Oh ye of little faith. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2238 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:52 pm

It will be freezing drizzle..book it. Really hope it happens, no one deserves snow more than central Texas. Long drought
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2239 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:04 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2240 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:36 pm

:uarrow: That is the storm I have been waiting on. It's not matter of if, but when, as the pattern is ripe for it.

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