Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If the air is colder than expected, we could cover most of the members in here with snow!

After looking again, so much warmer this run. The upper level pattern wasnt exactly matching what is happening at the surface. Looks off.

[Brent]

The CMC isn't very snowy... but it is very cold... single digits around DFW and that's with zero snow

[Ntxw]

If the air is colder than expected, we could cover most of the members in here with snow!

After looking again, so much warmer this run. The upper level pattern wasnt exactly matching what is happening at the surface. Looks off.

7 days away . We're all still bullish on the cold coming. It'll be more exciting on any precip if it was 3 days away.

[bubba hotep]

Doesn't look like much has changed after the model runs today. The cold still appears to be coming but hard to put any stock in individual solutions beyond day 4 or 5 given the run-to-run changes at 500mb across the models.

[Brent]

0z Euro

Decent rain Monday like the GFS

Arctic front through DFW early Wednesday morning, by Wednesday afternoon temps are around freezing.

Winter storm Thursday Night into Friday. Icy Friday morning, lots of precip

[Ntxw]

Yeah that seems to be what the Euro is showing. It has the main event on Friday with the ULL coming through. I would think if there were ice it would be early on with the overrunning disturbances when the cold is still fresh and shallow. The main show on the runs would likely have more snow with the cold upper trough later after cold is already entrenched.

[Brent]

Euro has frozen precip at DFW even into Saturday and temps falling into the 20s

Wxbell looks like it starts as ice then goes to snow... long duration

Teens just outside DFW Saturday morning as the precip ends. DFW spends close to 4 days straight near or below freezing

[ouamber]

Thanks for everything y'all do. What's it showing up across Oklahoma and Arkansas? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks:)

[Ntxw]

Thanks for everything y'all do. What's it showing up across Oklahoma and Arkansas? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks:)

GFS is slightly dry, Euro is very good for Oklahoma and Arkansas would be several inches of snow and even half a foot in some places.

[Ntxw]

Euro has frozen precip at DFW even into Saturday and temps falling into the 20s

Wxbell looks like it starts as ice then goes to snow... long duration

Teens just outside DFW Saturday morning as the precip ends. DFW spends close to 4 days straight near or below freezing

GFS had the southern wave a little further north and west early on while the Euro is slightly further south and east. That band if real is likely the ice maker. But still, oh why can't this be two days away

[Brent]

Euro has frozen precip at DFW even into Saturday and temps falling into the 20s

Wxbell looks like it starts as ice then goes to snow... long duration

Teens just outside DFW Saturday morning as the precip ends. DFW spends close to 4 days straight near or below freezing

GFS had the southern wave a little further north and west early on while the Euro is slightly further south and east. That band if real is likely the ice maker. But still, oh why can't this be two days away

Yeah the agreement is actually pretty good but I wish it wasn't a week away.

[ouamber]

Thanks for everything y'all do. What's it showing up across Oklahoma and Arkansas? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks:)

GFS is slightly dry, Euro is very good for Oklahoma and Arkansas would be several inches of snow and even half a foot in some places.

Thanks!! I'm excited!! Hopefully we all get some white stuff!!

[Ntxw]

Yeah the agreement is actually pretty good but I wish it wasn't a week away.

Hopefully Maue is right

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/814364669871792128

[gpsnowman]

The NBC 5 10 day has trended colder and colder wth each forecast. Now has a chance of mix/snow Thursday and Friday. Excellent.

[Portastorm]

The takeaway from the last 24 hours of GFS and Euro runs is that precip will be in play later next week. Where and how much are the $$ questions. And, of course, where will that 540dm thickness line set up in the state. The cold is coming and there's no longer a question about that.

[gboudx]

Based on past GFS behavior, we should soon get into the time period where consistency is lost, along with the cold air and precip. With such consensus, it'll be interesting if the GFS continues with its trend.

Steve McCauley teased in an update last night about a "variety" of wintry weather next week. His Stat Method is almost always reliable with wintry events. Hopefully he'll be running it once the event timeframe gets within his SM wheelhouse.

[Ntxw]

Get your bread and milk ready

[Ntxw]

Based on past GFS behavior, we should soon get into the time period where consistency is lost, along with the cold air and precip. With such consensus, it'll be interesting if the GFS continues with its trend.

I can see it losing the storm a few runs. But I don't think it will lose the cold. Too much ensemble support meaning all members can see the cold air. The snow I think is a week out but the frontal passage isn't too far, Tuesday or Weds which is not that far away.

[CaptinCrunch]

The next Arctic cold front will arrive late Tuesday bringing another blast of cold air to the region. After highs in the mid 50s north to upper 60s southeast Tuesday, highs will be in the mid 30s northwest to lower 50s southeast Wednesday. It will be even colder Thursday with highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Although it is still 8 or 9 days out, we'll have to keep an eye out for some possible wintry precipitation late next week as a couple of upper level disturbances move across the region.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF ENS still agree on cross polar flow late in it's run. So while next week will be cold, vodka cold is actually a little beyond the next arctic front (which could get us to temps seen in the last blast of Dec). If/when the models see that air mass move, I don't believe the next week is the coldest temps we see in January.