Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

So 1962 has been popping up several times throughout the analog ensembles so I figured to post about it. The 1962 arctic outbreak is considered widely the January's version of Dec 1983. It is basically the benchmark outbreak of outbreaks for that month arguably.

McFarland inclusively wrote his paper referring most to this very outbreak as it was particularly devastating for the lower rio grande valley. At the time near record 1062mb (held the record until Dec 1983) HP drove record cold temperatures all across the US. It was coast to coast cold from California to Florida but was hit hardest lee of the Rockies. Barometers here in Dallas there were various reports that read above 1050mb! On the 10th of January DFW had a high of 16F which is the lowest Max for any day of the month and a low of 7.



Now back to your regular show of snow or no snow...

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile you certainly don't see this everyday

[ronyan]

I don't think I've seen a probability map quite like that. If so it's been a number of years.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I don't think I've seen a probability map quite like that. If so it's been a number of years.

It's been a minute, I went through the cold periods the past couple of years back to 2009. Best I can find was from early Dec 2013 on the archives of the CPC

[Brent]

Wow. Not sure ive seen that color before lol

[Ntxw]

Well here's your answer, we haven't seen it like that before!

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/814634784580243456




But it is just a probability forecast, not necessarily how cold just their level of confidence that it will be cold

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That propability map is ridiculous hahahah

[wxman57]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. It's been a great week of 80 deg. temps. I see the 18Z GFS has temps holding steady in the upper 30s in Houston next Thu/Fri - with steady light rain. I'd take 80s any day over that.

[Snowman67]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. It's been a great week of 80 deg. temps. I see the 18Z GFS has temps holding steady in the upper 30s in Houston next Thu/Fri - with steady light rain. I'd take 80s any day over that.

This is good news for cold weather lovers.

[Brent]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. It's been a great week of 80 deg. temps. I see the 18Z GFS has temps holding steady in the upper 30s in Houston next Thu/Fri - with steady light rain. I'd take 80s any day over that.

Booking your trip to sunny Cancun yet?

[Cpv17]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. It's been a great week of 80 deg. temps. I see the 18Z GFS has temps holding steady in the upper 30s in Houston next Thu/Fri - with steady light rain. I'd take 80s any day over that.

Or just be a few degrees colder so we could have some snow?

[Ntxw]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing. It's been a great week of 80 deg. temps. I see the 18Z GFS has temps holding steady in the upper 30s in Houston next Thu/Fri - with steady light rain. I'd take 80s any day over that.

Booking your trip to sunny Cancun yet?

Did you not see the 12z Euro? Front clears Cancun Maybe Panama

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks like frontal passage Tuesday evening. Not a blasting front, gradual cold, 850 0C line is back near OKC

[Ntxw]

Frozen precip near midnight Thursday NW half of NTX

[Brent]

Snow just north of DFW Thursday morning, mix moving into the metro, rain south

[Ntxw]

This run looks like it could set up a prolonged overrunning event.

[Brent]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

[Ntxw]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

5h vorticity still out west, hasn't kicked through yet

[JayDT]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

Hopefully the DFW area can end up included in the big snows when all is said and done.

[Ntxw]

Oh this run is so close to being something huge. Big snows north and northwest of DFW Thursday afternoon with a battleground over the metro

Hopefully the DFW area can end up included in the big snows when all is said and done.

We're just glad it still has the storm...we can settle the fine details later. We just need to keep it around long enough.

That's a long period of precip on the GFS. I don't think we've seen anything like that?I think Feb 10-12, 2010 went about 24 hours?