Texas Winter 2016-2017

[starsfan65]

Yeah. It concerns me that the Euro is the dry model first. I won't lie there. It needs to come in better.

This GFS run is garbage.

I wouldn't say its garbage, but it is one run, and it looks different in the upper levels. Lets see what the euro says. GFS overall is still not that impressed with the cold air to begin with.

January is the coldest time of the year.

[srainhoutx]

HGX is receiving some reports of sleet falling in Bryan/College Station. Most of the precipitation appears to be virga, but don't be surprised if a couple sleet pellets fall across our Northern Counties.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS took a step towards the Euro with a more consolidated trough. The runs that have produced winter weather over Texas break the main trough with the western portion driving things as it kicks out.

[Brent]

The CMC just looks like some brief sleet as the precip ends. No accumulation in DFW on the snow map. A little snow along the Red River counties.

[mcheer23]

Will be looking forward to the EURO, para gfs

[starsfan65]

12z GFS took a step towards the Euro with a more consolidated trough. The runs that have produced winter weather over Texas break the main trough with the western portion driving things as it kicks out.

What does that mean?

[TexasBreeze]

Drier and warmer has become a trend here in Houston with that model. EC not impressed either.

[bevolon]

Okay. I am more of a stalker than a poster.I really enjoy reading everyones feedback in regards to the runs. Should i put my snow gear up or just sit back for a while and see what happens over the next few runs?

[Ntxw]

Okay. I am more of a stalker than a poster.I really enjoy reading everyones feedback in regards to the runs. Should i put my snow gear up or just sit back for a while and see what happens over the next few runs?

I wouldn't do anything until Sunday when the system is in the US . Don't let our ups and down 4x a day sway you yet

[davidiowx]

Okay. I am more of a stalker than a poster.I really enjoy reading everyones feedback in regards to the runs. Should i put my snow gear up or just sit back for a while and see what happens over the next few runs?

Definitely sit back and relax. Models flip and flop all the time. Especially with cold air in our part of the country. They often under perform as well. I would wait until next Mon/Tuesday before anyone can really say with confidence what will happen.

[starsfan65]

Drier and warmer has become a trend here in Houston with that model. EC not impressed either.

i heard that the EPO is going negative next week.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS took a step towards the Euro with a more consolidated trough. The runs that have produced winter weather over Texas break the main trough with the western portion driving things as it kicks out.

What does that mean?

It's a single model run so no point in deep diving at this range but the orientation and structure of the trough can impact everything from the surface all the way up to jet streaks. How all of that plays together determines the sensible weather for Texas next week.

[bevolon]

Thanks everyone!! You talked me off the ledge! LOL

[Ntxw]

12z GFS took a step towards the Euro with a more consolidated trough. The runs that have produced winter weather over Texas break the main trough with the western portion driving things as it kicks out.

What does that mean?

It's a single model run so no point in deep diving at this range but the orientation and structure of the trough can impact everything from the surface all the way up to jet streaks. How all of that plays together determines the sensible weather for Texas next week.

While the precip is always in question, I do think the GFS (even well before this run) is way underestimating this air mass. I can believe the dry solutions because it could get very cold and it may be coastal Texas that ultimately sees bouts of freezing precip but I am having a hard time believing its temps with this kind of pattern historically

[Brent]

Yeah there's no reason to get too obsessed with individual model runs... the key is to look for trends in all the models. It's still 6 days out, there will be ups and downs. It's just part of winter where we are.

I do think it's far more likely to be cold and dry than warm though if it goes wrong for us. The precip has always been the bigger question to me.

[starsfan65]

Yeah there's no reason to get too obsessed with individual model runs... the key is to look for trends in all the models. It's still 6 days out, there will be ups and downs. It's just part of winter where we are.

I do think it's far more likely to be cold and dry than warm though if it goes wrong for us. The precip has always been the bigger question to me.

I watch the local news and they are still saying a chance of winter precip Thursday. How cold do u think the highs will be Thursday and Friday?

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS ENS members are warmer/further north with storm next week, Oklahoma is more ground zero at this point (that fits climatology)...that trend continues

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile, we have a chance of rain as well as thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday morning. Some storms could become severe and according to EWX, hail would be the main risk.

Aside from large hail, it will be nice to get some thunderstorm action around here. Missed out the other night as a couple of isolated storms meandered through the Austin metro but didn't hit the city. The only exciting thing was that I could occasionally see the distant lighting from the storm that developed over northwest Williamson County.

We really need the rain more than anything else at this point. Sunday night through Monday morning looks like our best shot at seeing any significant rain.

While all the cold chatter later next week is interesting and fun, my focus is the short term.

[Ntxw]

Ah yes, our resident rain miser speaks! Should be a wet couple of days in central and se texas. Lighter amounts in ntx

[orangeblood]

Wow, Looking closer at the GFS ENS members, they're almost 6-7 Deg F warmer at the surface...huge swing and not a good trend