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JDawg512 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Day 2 northward expansion to include a good portion of the DFW area. The 12z Euro looks pretty juicy for tomorrow night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1BukqfUkAAW9A_.jpg
Yes I the Rain Miser wanted to ring in the New year with a bang, but don't worry, these storms shouldn't get out of hand. What better way to enjoy the 1st of the year with natural fireworks..
wxman57 wrote:If I can be serious, for a moment, I'm looking at the current and projected 500mb flow across Alaska & Canada (GFS). Yeah, that's a pretty big ridge building over Alaska, but look at the flow pattern, look where the air in western Canada is coming from - the Pacific. In past severe cold events across Texas, there wasn't a big ridge over Alaska, it was farther east and tapping into Siberian air across the Pole. During the very cold winter of '76-'77, it was unusually warm over Alaska. I remember hearing a story of U.S. troops on winter survival training in Alaska suffering from heat exhaustion in their Arctic gear.
As I always say, look at the source region of the cold air. It's really not cold in NW Canada or Alaska. The colder air is well to the east over north-central Canada, and even then it's not nearly as cold as with the Arctic outbreak a few weeks ago. True, we don't need extremely cold Arctic air to get frozen precip across Texas, but given the recent warmth across the Central Plains and the northern extent of the snow cover, it's going to be hard to get enough deep cold air over Texas for snow over the next week or so. It's possible that a cross-Polar flow will develop in the coming weeks, allowing some extremely cold Siberian air to head south into the U.S., but I don't see that happening over the next 7-10 days.
That said, the models are going to have a very tough time with the current and predicted weather pattern. Don't get your hopes up for any freezing/frozen precip until it appears in the 2-3 day model guidance, there is agreement in all global models, AND model runs are consistently showing such precip each run. For now, I expect we'll see some colder air this coming week and next, but it may not even be cold enough to produce a freeze down to Houston. I'm not saying we won't see a freeze, just that there is no guarantee of one. As for frozen precip across SE TX, I'm not concerned/excited about it for the next 7-10 days.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... m_ak_8.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Well this is really a bummer, starting to think we'll get no winter precip this year. 2015-2016 we had the moisture but no cold. Now we have the cold but no moisture.
JDawg512 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Day 2 northward expansion to include a good portion of the DFW area. The 12z Euro looks pretty juicy for tomorrow night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1BukqfUkAAW9A_.jpg
Yes I the Rain Miser wanted to ring in the New year with a bang, but don't worry, these storms shouldn't get out of hand. What better way to enjoy the 1st of the year with natural fireworks..
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Well this is really a bummer, starting to think we'll get no winter precip this year. 2015-2016 we had the moisture but no cold. Now we have the cold but no moisture.
It's 12/31.... if we don't get it this time there will be 2-5 more cold shots where we will get a chance.
Humidity levels will continue to go up across north Texas and will support a few showers moving in from the Southwest Sunday morning. But the main event still looks to be after midnight Sunday night when a large cluster of strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms sweeps west to east across much of the area. Primary threats will be strong winds and pocket-change hail. Storms will exit early Monday morning.
It stays nice and mild for Monday through Tuesday morning and then turning colder Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves in (rainless) and a chilly day sets up for Wednesday. I still see no evidence for significant precipitation with this first front.
A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Friday, and this is the day we have been advertising that our next upper-level disturbance moves into the area bringing a variety of wintry precipitation.
There remains little confidence in predicting how much precipitation we will receive with this late-week event (although it appears to be light). I have seen NUMEROUS postings on social media with folks apparently trying to find the weather forecast computer model (dozens to choose from) that has the worst-case scenario displayed and getting everyone excited about a big winter storm headed our way.
I have seen some people post images predicting several inches of snow or a paralyzing ice storm for north Texas followed by temperatures in the single digits and teens. But what they don't post and what they are not telling you is that these same models showed something completely different 6 hours earlier or 6 hours later. In other words, the models keep flip-flopping BIG TIME in their predictions (which is not unusual in these kind of situations).
So be careful on what you see posted. You may not be seeing weather forecasting. You may just be seeing wishful thinking.
. There's literally no continuity. I think a dartboard might be more accuratehriverajr wrote:Builds one heck of an upper high from the Southwest to Texas... 70's all over the state by the 9th of January...
80 degrees on Jan. 10th? too warm!!Brent wrote:DFW near 80 on January 10th... I'm sure that will verify because warmth always does lol
starsfan65 wrote:80 degrees on Jan. 10th? too warm!!Brent wrote:DFW near 80 on January 10th... I'm sure that will verify because warmth always does lol
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At least this GFS run is colder for Friday.
