Texas Winter 2016-2017

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2601 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:55 am

Happy New Year everyone!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2602 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:22 am

Happy New Year everyone!

Wow the Euro is much warmer than the GFS now... DFW Wednesday is in the upper 40s and almost hits 70 on Thursday!!! :double:

Front comes through Thursday Night and temps plunge below freezing. Bone dry so far
'
BTW, close to an inch of rain falls tomorrow night/Monday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2603 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:27 am

Happy New Year!

With that and a fresh year, the Euro gives us a fresh look! Trough in the east coast 0z yesterday, elongated flatter trough now over us! What a difference 24 hours once again!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2604 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:27 am

These models are still all over the place

Thursday is near 70 and Friday is in the 20s most of the day at DFW on the Euro lol. Storm goes up east of us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2605 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:30 am

Visual

0z last night

Image

0z tonight, both for Thurs evening

Image

That is pretty crazy!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2606 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:32 am

Flurries Friday Night in DFW on the Euro. Very cold, temps in the teens just outside the metro

what a weird run

Saturday struggles to get above freezing
Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2607 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:34 am

:uarrow: Yep the wild model swings continue.

Happy New Year everyone! I'm very thankful for another wet year across Texas in 2016. Much of the state received above normal rainfall this year, with some places getting 20 inches more than average! I hope we have another wet year in 2017!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2608 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:37 am

Brent wrote:Flurries Friday Night in DFW on the Euro. Very cold, temps in the teens just outside the metro

what a weird run

Saturday struggles to get above freezing


It actually took a step in the right direction. If we can keep the energy coming down from the north to dig a little further west and southward, we'd stand a better chance. Kind of similar to what the Canadian trended to
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2609 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:55 am

The digging system will be in the Pac NW tomorrow. If there's going to be shifts or changes I suspect the runs tomorrow will be important.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2610 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:02 am

Bump, posting this 500mb analysis for academics and in case I need to go back and looking at the 5h pattern if it turns out to be something long in the future :lol:. Plus you don't see 570dm+ in the northeast Pacific all that often, pretty uncommon. The last one I think was December 2013, three years ago.

Image

Correction Nuri blast Nov 2014 had a 570dm ridge along the Canadian/Alaskan border
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2611 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:01 am

Happy New Year! Why am I still up, and now looking at the weather? It's a sickness. Or maybe the sickness is from mixing bourbon, beer and champagne in he same evening. Whatever, here is to an exciting 2017 for Texas weather (hopefully starting this week). Be safe out there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2612 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:18 am

Happy New Year S2K!

Now a quick recap of December, both the month and the 2016 year have come to a end, and what a warm year it was.
December monthly mean ended @ +2.6 above average with 20 of the 31 days recording a above average daily temperature. The monthly precipitation for December was -1.95" below average. (official location at DFW Airport) the official H/L for the month was 83 & 16 degrees.

2016 should make it into the top 5 warmest years on record, and for NTX we recorded 11 of 12 months with a above average monthly mean temperature, only July was below average.

Will have to wait for Mondays SST update but from the latest readings the waters off the western coast of Chili at the equator have warmed considerably over December and Nina regions 3 & 4 have warmed to -0.4 or higher which would end the 3 month over lapping period of a -0.5 or greater temperature signaling an end of La Nina conditions and a transition to ENSO neutral. (November 31st SST reading was -0.8)

So what is left for winter? I still think January will be slightly above average for temps, and average to slightly above average precipitation. Will it snow, sleet, or what? Yes, we will some frozen precipitation this month, but not a lot. February is still the target to get a significant winter storm, maybe more than 1. February will be below average temperature wise and will see above average precipitation, and the cold may stretch into early March.

This is just my opinion on the remainder of the 2016/17 winter and should be considered as a best guess.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2613 Postby dhweather » Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:34 am

Happy New Year everyone!

May 2017 bring:

Snow for Portastorm this WInter
Warmth for wxman57 this Summer
Rain for everyone throughout the year
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2614 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:06 am

dhweather wrote:Happy New Year everyone!

May 2017 bring:

Snow for Portastorm this WInter
Warmth for wxman57 this Summer
Rain for everyone throughout the year


Couldn't have said it better myself, dhweather! :D

Happy New Year to all you good folks who make the Texas weather threads and this forum such a joy. Y'all rock!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2615 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:08 am

Happy New Year, everyone. I'd prefer my warmth in the winter, please. It's always warm in summer. ;-)

The 6Z GFS has 2 days of semi-winter this week, followed by a return to above-normal temps in Houston. Perhaps some heavy thunderstorms tomorrow morning. GFS has over an inch of rain between 9am and noon on Monday:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2616 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:25 am

The warmth in interior Alaska is pretty amazing for this time of year. Many locations have temps in the 30's. Extremely warm for this time of year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2617 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:38 am

Snowman67 wrote:The warmth in interior Alaska is pretty amazing for this time of year. Many locations have temps in the 30's. Extremely warm for this time of year.


Stout -EPO ridge over them. Very anomalous.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2618 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:The warmth in interior Alaska is pretty amazing for this time of year. Many locations have temps in the 30's. Extremely warm for this time of year.


Stout -EPO ridge over them. Very anomalous.

http://i67.tinypic.com/24pc3vb.png


Barrow about 40F warmer than normal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2619 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:53 am

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2620 Postby gboudx » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:34 am

Image

Looking forward to another year on S2k. I'll drop you guys a donation as I think I'm long overdue. I guess things can change but it appears Lucy pulled the football again for this upcoming week with all the pretty model runs of multiple wintry weather events and bone-chilling air. Hopefully we all get at least 1 sleet or snow event this winter.
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