BOB: INVEST 90B

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Is this the former Cat 5 Nock-Ten? I know a few days ago, the models were developing the remnants in the BOB.

[Alyono]

models are starting to key on a possible direct hit on the Irawaddy Delta

[Alyono]

May be one major difference between this and Nargis. Nargis came from from the west. This one is likely to come in from the south if it goes that direction. Far greater surge threat from that direction. Thankfully, this should be quite a bit weaker

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

MT has been across the equator in the INDO past few weeks,I think the the MT along with a current equatorial rossby wave is the reason for this system.

[Steve820]

If it develops, it could be one of the earliest NIO storm formations ever recorded, if not the earliest. Here's hoping it becomes Maarutha, but not be any major threat. A nearby invest (91B) is also forecast to merge with this. I also feel like this could be associated with the remnants of Nock-ten in some way.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looks text book ER to me with the duel lows on either sides of the EQ. Any other opinions welcomed not seeing any
evidence myself in connection with former STY Nock-Ten.

[Alyono]

looks like a classic twin cyclone situation

[kala]

Both GFS and ECMWF have been trending this system consistently east. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if this disturbance ended up over the Malay Peninsula in two or three days and tracking into Southeast Asia and nothing becomes of it.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

361 WTIN20 DEMS 040616

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.01.2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
04.01.2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.01.2017.



BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA &
ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS
LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
NEXT 48 HRS THE ASSOCIATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
AND ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS

NIL LOW MODERATE

[Calasanjy]

Do you think that this is tracking too close to land to have much of a chance at developing, as with Invest 94S near Australia?

[1900hurricane]

Not looking too bad at the moment.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJAN2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 98.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//