Texas Winter 2016-2017

[JDawg512]

Monitoring a slight training effect over Travis County right now. Been getting some very heavy rain as I'm typing this. More storms are redeveloping heading up this way along and west of I-35.

I haven't been to bed yet and I may not get any sleep tonight. This is what I live for!

At this point I would expect at least an inch of rain. At first it looked like the line would be in and out of here but that isn't the case since it's slowed hung up a little along the Balcones Escarpment.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Urban development/heat island effect ?

It's pretty clear. You can see drastic differences leaving the urban areas to rural areas and the differences is pretty significant. Not quite the levels of NYC yet but that's another good example. NYC official freezes have been in some cases months later than suburban areas.

Use Google Earth to timelapse from 1984 to 2016 while zoomed out over the DFW area to see how much the area has grown. Zooming in won't get as many years but is still fun. The drastic changes seen there might explain some of the changes seen in overnight lows.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS caved and looks more similar to euro and cmc. Though missing a lot of texas, big winter storm for many in the south.

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS caved and looks more similar to euro and cmc. Though missing a lot of texas, big winter storm for many in the south.

That is a big shift south from 00z but still not ready to call it a trend. The models are still struggling with the energy coming out of the NW but you would think it is getting pretty close to the window when they should start to pin that down. The 00z Euro EPS was pretty much in line with the 12z EPS and the 00z Euro, so maybe the Euro is starting to lock in?

[srainhoutx]

6z GFS caved and looks more similar to euro and cmc. Though missing a lot of texas, big winter storm for many in the south.

That is a big shift south from 00z but still not ready to call it a trend. The models are still struggling with the energy coming out of the NW but you would think it is getting pretty close to the window when they should start to pin that down. The 00z Euro EPS was pretty much in line with the 12z EPS and the 00z Euro, so maybe the Euro is starting to lock in?

WPC stated this morning that after being somewhat stable, all of the guidance flipped with the handling of the two shortwaves diving S out of Canada leaving the sensible weather forecast poor at best beyond the anomalous heavy precipitation event across California where precipitation anomalies are approaching 5 Standard Deviation above normal. Want to see snow, head to the Sierras and the Rockies. Lake Tahoe could be measuring snowfall by the feet.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS caved and looks more similar to euro and cmc. Though missing a lot of texas, big winter storm for many in the south.

That is a big shift south from 00z but still not ready to call it a trend. The models are still struggling with the energy coming out of the NW but you would think it is getting pretty close to the window when they should start to pin that down. The 00z Euro EPS was pretty much in line with the 12z EPS and the 00z Euro, so maybe the Euro is starting to lock in?

Yeah, the reason for the changes may be because the system is now better sampled within the upper air network. Got to say though it is good to see guidance not hang the energy off in the NW too long. Its really not that far off from a big event. Good things happen when cold comes first, system second.

Edit: what srain posted above!

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS caved and looks more similar to euro and cmc. Though missing a lot of texas, big winter storm for many in the south.

That is a big shift south from 00z but still not ready to call it a trend. The models are still struggling with the energy coming out of the NW but you would think it is getting pretty close to the window when they should start to pin that down. The 00z Euro EPS was pretty much in line with the 12z EPS and the 00z Euro, so maybe the Euro is starting to lock in?

WPC stated this morning that after being somewhat stable, all of the guidance flipped with the handling of the two shortwaves diving S out of Canada leaving the sensible weather forecast poor at best beyond the anomalous heavy precipitation event across California where precipitation anomalies are approaching 5 Standard Deviation above normal. Want to see snow, head to the Sierras and the Rockies. Lake Tahoe could be measuring snowfall by the feet.

That looks like a fun time, after this system the models are showing another cutoff dropping in off of Oregon keeping the snow machine on full blast.

[wxman57]

What a pleasant January morning here in Houston. The temperature is at 74 degrees but a squall line is approaching. Should be good biking weather after noon, though. Overnight GFS does indicate 3-4 cold days late this week and over the weekend. I wouldn't expect any frozen precip across SE TX. Meanwhile, the squall line just hit SW Houston. After 30-60 minutes of rain, the weather may turn out pretty good for biking by this afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

Any potential late week system for Texas not only depends on the NW energy kicking out on time but also on how things evolve around the Hudson Bay area. That will play a role in determining if a late week system can dig or gets sheared out.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/815930972957016068

[orangeblood]

Obviously numerous factors have to come together for winter weather in these parts but when you have almost 70% of the Euro ENS members on your side less than 5 days out (which has increased 3 fold in 3 runs), those factors are trending in the right direction

[Ntxw]

With so many moving parts, and timing, could we be looking at a situation where once again models see it far out then lose it only to bring it back? I wouldn't want to be it's snow bullseye 5 days away, I'd like to be in it by Weds

[orangeblood]

With so many moving parts, and timing, could we be looking at a situation where once again models see it far out then lose it only to bring it back? I wouldn't want to be it's snow bullseye 5 days away, I'd like to be in it by Weds

Well the 1st step and something we have been observing over the past few runs is the cut off UL energy is now kicking out much quicker - how quick and robust is something that should be answered at some point today. Now the next step is where does that energy travel along the base of the long wave trough - as you've mentioned, the models will be all over the place until probably around 48 hrs out (is why I focus on the suite of Euro ENS members at this point then pay more attention to the operational as we get closer). Hopefully step 1 should be much more defined today and best news of all - at least we have something to discuss around here

[Brent]

With so many moving parts, and timing, could we be looking at a situation where once again models see it far out then lose it only to bring it back? I wouldn't want to be it's snow bullseye 5 days away, I'd like to be in it by Weds

Looking at the snow maps on the GFS back east in AL/GA and the Carolinas I do tend to agree. Everytime we were in a bullseye 5 days out it ended in nothing but disappointment...

My favorites were the ones that were supposed to be south of us, because there was always a north trend there the final day or two. Always.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm on pace for 372 inches of rain at my house in 2017!

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, January 2017 has started off a little wetter than the way that 2016 ended.

From the early morning storms here in northern Grayson County, we had 0.39 at the Austin College weather site and 0.32 at North Texas Regional Airport.

It's a start!

[Brent]

This morning was the first widespread rain event in awhile...

Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS stronger/further southwest, digging s/w into the 4 corners area - this storm could become quite significant for the southern US if this trend continues

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks a lot like 6z maybe a tad north. Definitely a much more robust system than it had the past several days. Oklahoma takes the brunt of it this run

[Portastorm]

Monitoring a slight training effect over Travis County right now. Been getting some very heavy rain as I'm typing this. More storms are redeveloping heading up this way along and west of I-35.

I haven't been to bed yet and I may not get any sleep tonight. This is what I live for!

At this point I would expect at least an inch of rain. At first it looked like the line would be in and out of here but that isn't the case since it's slowed hung up a little along the Balcones Escarpment.

It was an interesting early morning here in Travis County, wasn't it?! The precipitation patterns and storm formation were curious. We didn't get so much of a squall line as we did a mesoscale system blob with imbedded storm cells. Nothing severe but there sure was a lot of lightning!

[Brent]

GFS has a lot of snow just up the road in Oklahoma Friday Night

it's getting closer

Changes over in the Red River counties NE of DFW as it ends Saturday morning