Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Euro at the surface is some snow in the panhandle, light snow in Oklahoma just north of the Red River and some funny business down near Austin

[Brent]

The Euro meteogram at KAUS has 0.02" of precip Friday morning with temps around freezing...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I was trying to plan a trip to Chicago to see snow, looks like the next 2 weeks they won't get any..hm

Go to SW Montana or NW Wyoming.

Consistent cold snow.

[hriverajr]

But snow is not special there...

[Ntxw]

The Euro meteogram at KAUS has 0.02" of precip Friday morning with temps around freezing...

Classic freezing drizzle! kidding side maybe a flurry or two down that way?

[TexasF6]

I'm liking the new euro run so far. A strong HP sitting just northwest of Texas!!!! And a low lurking for some winter happiness. Porta, it ain't over yet!

[Brent]

But snow is not special there...

lol I know... gawking at snow up north strikes me as weird. everyone I know who lives up north despises snow.

[bubba hotep]

Back to last week with the models, now that they have given up on cutting the energy off and leaving it out over the Pacific NW. The solutions that bring the energy out consolidated, 12z Euro with more of a single trough:



vs. the two separate s/w solution on the 12z GFS:

[ThunderSleetDreams]

But snow is not special there...

lol I know... gawking at snow up north strikes me as weird. everyone I know who lives up north despises snow.

The poster wanted snow and cold. The Yellowstone area is as consistent as it gets...

[Ntxw]

Back to last week with the models, now that they have given up on cutting the energy off and leaving it out over the Pacific NW. The solutions that bring the energy out consolidated, 12z Euro with more of a single trough:

Http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_5.png

vs. the two separate s/w solution on the 12z GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_21.png

Still a lot of chaos in the Pacific where the biggest differences are.

[TheProfessor]

Man if this storm is going to miss Texas to North I'd rather it be further north so I can be greeted with some snow when I head back Ohio on Sunday. Either that or have the trough dig more and go Neg-tilt so the storm can head Northeast and bomb.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That high off of mexico is literally the cause of our demise. Is this because the area in the eastern pacific is warming?

JB hints at an SOI drop and MJO help coming but we need help with cold air in a few weeks for that.

[weatherdude1108]

Monitoring a slight training effect over Travis County right now. Been getting some very heavy rain as I'm typing this. More storms are redeveloping heading up this way along and west of I-35.

I haven't been to bed yet and I may not get any sleep tonight. This is what I live for!

At this point I would expect at least an inch of rain. At first it looked like the line would be in and out of here but that isn't the case since it's slowed hung up a little along the Balcones Escarpment.

It was an interesting early morning here in Travis County, wasn't it?! The precipitation patterns and storm formation were curious. We didn't get so much of a squall line as we did a mesoscale system blob with imbedded storm cells. Nothing severe but there sure was a lot of lightning!

I got a new gauge for Christmas, and I actually brought it inside in case we got big hail. So I'm not sure how much we got. I can speculate based on the RFC Precipitation analysis from noaa (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/) that I got between 0.25 to 0.50. The formerly tough, dry soil in my yard is now wet and squishy.

We got garden variety lightning and thunder, and a little wind. I was up most of the night eyeballing the radar and weather service sites for warnings. Slept about three hours between midnight and 3am. Then was up for good. Nice to get the rain to wash out the air and wet the earth up some.

[orangeblood]

There is some seriously cold air building in Alberta on the Euro, areas just north of Calgary exceeding -50 below F by day 10...if the North Pacific Ridge collapses down through NW Canada, the Lower 48 is in trouble!!

[Ntxw]

There is some seriously cold air building in Alberta on the Euro, areas just north of Calgary exceeding -50 below F by day 10...if the North Pacific Ridge collapses down through NW Canada, the Lower 48 is in trouble!!

Guidance has shown relaxing to warmer after late week. Cross polar flow is dumping cold into Canada during that period. Weeklies had suggested a return to some colder conditions after. Lots of volatility. One thing is certain this season, there is more then plenty of cold air in North America to work with.

[JDawg512]

Monitoring a slight training effect over Travis County right now. Been getting some very heavy rain as I'm typing this. More storms are redeveloping heading up this way along and west of I-35.

I haven't been to bed yet and I may not get any sleep tonight. This is what I live for!

At this point I would expect at least an inch of rain. At first it looked like the line would be in and out of here but that isn't the case since it's slowed hung up a little along the Balcones Escarpment.

It was an interesting early morning here in Travis County, wasn't it?! The precipitation patterns and storm formation were curious. We didn't get so much of a squall line as we did a mesoscale system blob with imbedded storm cells. Nothing severe but there sure was a lot of lightning!

I got a new gauge for Christmas, and I actually brought it inside in case we got big hail. So I'm not sure how much we got. I can speculate based on the RFC Precipitation analysis from noaa (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/) that I got between 0.25 to 0.50. The formerly tough, dry soil in my yard is now wet and squishy.

We got garden variety lightning and thunder, and a little wind. I was up most of the night eyeballing the radar and weather service sites for warnings. Slept about three hours between midnight and 3am. Then was up for good. Nice to get the rain to wash out the air and wet the earth up some.

Just over an inch fell in my yard, and that is what I figured given how the event unfolded. As Porta mentioned we had a series of embeded thunderstorms develop to the southwest paralleling the escarpment and it caused a bit of a broken training effect. Lots of lighnting! I got to sit by the dining room window and watch bolt after bolt after bolt. Even caught a few recording on my phone.

Some spots probably got a little more than I did and others got a little less. Overall I think most of the metro got over 0.25-1.25 in the luckiest spots.

The rain miser got his new years wish. Now we can resume with winter.

[orangeblood]

No wonder this pattern is so difficult to nail down...look at how the PV breaks up into different/smaller lobes, so many moving parts

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/815973766706724864

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS looks a lot more like the op than the 00z did. It almost cuts the low off but then quickly stretches it and shears it into the base of the trough. As a result, a lot less members showing snow for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Still a lot of chaos in the Pacific where the biggest differences are.

Not as much as I would like at this point, the Pacific s/w is over coastal Washington and the s/w diving out of Canada is in central Saskatchewan. Still, the models can struggle with cutoffs, so there still could be more uncertainty than normal associated with the Pacific NW energy. Euro is pretty solid in this range, so it will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS folds or not.

[Rgv20]

In the last hour McAllen officially hit 90F.....