Texas Winter 2016-2017

Winter Weather Discussion

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2721 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:41 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro EPS looks a lot more like the op than the 00z did. It almost cuts the low off but then quickly stretches it and shears it into the base of the trough. As a result, a lot less members showing snow for Texas.


Yep, Euro package reversed trend, really shears out that Pacific NW system
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2722 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:58 pm

Very nice, thorough discussion this afternoon out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They capture the essence of our dialogue here and examine the "players on the field" and how each model treats them. I won't post the whole thing but here is a link:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2723 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 02, 2017 4:16 pm

Portastorm wrote:Very nice, thorough discussion this afternoon out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They capture the essence of our dialogue here and examine the "players on the field" and how each model treats them. I won't post the whole thing but here is a link:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


Thanks for posting! It's hard to track all the AFDs, esp when they vary so much on details depending on who is writing them and what else is going on.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2724 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:06 pm

18z GFS has pretty good snow in DFW Friday Night!!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2725 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:08 pm

Lets take the 18z gfs, run with it, and call it a winter...go straight to summer after
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2726 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:Lets take the 18z gfs, run with it, and call it a winter...go straight to summer after


Fine with me LOL I just want one snowfall and then as far as I'm concerned we can warm up :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2727 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:10 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Very nice, thorough discussion this afternoon out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They capture the essence of our dialogue here and examine the "players on the field" and how each model treats them. I won't post the whole thing but here is a link:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


Thanks for posting! It's hard to track all the AFDs, esp when they vary so much on details depending on who is writing them and what else is going on.


That is a more thorough discussion than usual by the EWX office. Looks like through all the confusion, they are blending the models, with a slight lean towards the Euro/Crazy Canadian (longer duration cold snap) models, at least this hour. But dry as usual. Not even a freezing drizzle guarantee.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2728 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:11 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2729 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:13 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Lets take the 18z gfs, run with it, and call it a winter...go straight to summer after


Fine with me LOL I just want one snowfall and then as far as I'm concerned we can warm up :double:

Amen. We had a good storm this morning that was nice to hear, now it is time for winter to make a comeback. Please, just one good and healthy snow. I happen to be off work Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2730 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:14 pm

That was a pretty good run for southern snow between I-40 and I-20.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2731 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:21 pm

Brent wrote:18z GFS has pretty good snow in DFW Friday Night!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png



I had to double check to make sure that was the GFS. Let the craziness continue...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2732 Postby lrak » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:25 pm

Brent wrote:18z GFS has pretty good snow in DFW Friday Night!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png


Would someone please let me know what the 500s dash lines represent, is it temperature? Is there an easy formula to apply like the formula C to F degrees one?

thanks for posting Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2733 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:26 pm

Wed we will have a better idea models are struggling
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2734 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:34 pm

lrak wrote:
Brent wrote:18z GFS has pretty good snow in DFW Friday Night!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png


Would someone please let me know what the 500s dash lines represent, is it temperature? Is there an easy formula to apply like the formula C to F degrees one?


It is the thickness (temperature) from 1000mb to 500mb. Thats 300ft to 18,000 ft up. 540 is loosely the value in which you may see snow meaning the column is likely below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2735 Postby lrak » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:
lrak wrote:
Brent wrote:18z GFS has pretty good snow in DFW Friday Night!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_18.png


Would someone please let me know what the 500s dash lines represent, is it temperature? Is there an easy formula to apply like the formula C to F degrees one?


It is the thickness (temperature) from 1000mb to 500mb. Thats 300ft to 18,000 ft up. 540 is loosely the value in which you may see snow meaning the column is likely below freezing.


Thank you Sir, way faster than looking it up :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2736 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:21 pm

Brent wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010218/gfs_asnow_scus_20.png


I better get my snow shovel out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2737 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:29 pm

Hoping for a good trend 0z. Lets get this system to come out around the Permian Basin or El Paso and we can get more of Texas involved...and end Portastorm's snow drought.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2738 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:35 pm

Per the Euro weeklies today, after this cold shot it relaxes and warms up mid Jan before the pattern gets favorable again for cold late in the month with a more +PNA/-AO look. Early Feb looks good but that's way way out
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2739 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:51 pm

is it Friday yet lol

I feel like it's already been forever we've been tracking this storm and it still seems forever from now
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2740 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:03 pm

Brent wrote:is it Friday yet lol

I feel like it's already been forever we've been tracking this storm and it still seems forever from now


It has been a while, there were rumblings of front and precip for this period the day after Christmas some 30+ pages ago.
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