Texas Winter 2016-2017

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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2921 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:03 pm

I was at the 2000 snow bowl as a Freshman at A&M.

I'm originally from Longview and drove from Shreveport back to Longview, only to find a ditch and ice packed roads in Hallsville.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2922 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us :lol:

Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!


I would say that you have until the first week or two of March to see snow up in the D-FW area. However, with cold air currently lacking in northern Canada, it's going to be hard to get cold enough air down here (and moisture) for any significant snow. GFS is showing some cooling in Canada at 384hrs. I particularly like that red across the U.S.:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2923 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:13 pm

Not seeing any big changes in the 12z guidance. If you are a DFW snow lover then look to the GEFS and Para-NAM... Still, anyone N of I20 is probably still in the 1" game based on the uncertainty associated with where mesoscale features might setup.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2924 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:Friday looks to be a close call here in the Austin area IF the Euro is right. It develops some rather robust drizzle as overrunning takes hold in the skies above. Two nights ago the 0z Euro showed this as did yesterday's 12z albeit a bit lighter on QPF. Surface temps right now appear to be a few degrees too warm for any freezing precip. But if the Euro is too warm by a few degrees we could have some trouble. Best bet for any wintry mischief appears to be in patchy spots in the Hill Country.

The GFS and NAM show none of this. I'll be eager later this morning to see the Tech WRF model and what it shows. More times than not this is an excellent hi-res, short range model for Texas weather.

Oh, and I would encourage anyone in my area to read the morning AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They do a nice job of covering this.


12z Euro still looks fairly aggressive on the drizzle for the greater Austin metro area on Friday. Going to have to watch surface temps around here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2925 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:54 pm

35 degrees where I am in Fort Worth. If the clouds don't go away I doubt it gets much warmer than it is now. A pretty good temp bust on the high temperature forecasted.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2926 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:01 pm

need moisture!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2927 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:26 pm

gpsnowman wrote:35 degrees where I am in Fort Worth. If the clouds don't go away I doubt it gets much warmer than it is now. A pretty good temp bust on the high temperature forecasted.

Wouldn't you know it, clearing out west now with sunny skies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2928 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:34 pm

I know this is the Texas Winter Weather forum, but I can't help but notice what's going on in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Looks like an atmospheric river of moisture, Pineapple Express-type scenario, is setting up, or has set up. The rainfall and snowfall forecast totals appear high, off the chart! :eek: Great for the snow pack/water supply!

My aunt has a cabin up in the Sierras out there near Mammoth Lakes and June Mountain area. Her area where the cabin is located closes from October through late April. I was just up there in August.

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2929 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us :lol:

Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!


I would say that you have until the first week or two of March to see snow up in the D-FW area. However, with cold air currently lacking in northern Canada, it's going to be hard to get cold enough air down here (and moisture) for any significant snow. GFS is showing some cooling in Canada at 384hrs. I particularly like that red across the U.S.:

Image


I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2930 Postby Golf7070 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:20 pm

Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2931 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:30 pm

Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?


The -AO forecast is for the end of January and beginning of Feb. There are some signs of warming in the upper strat or at least perturbations. Long way though and a lot of mixed signals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2932 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:52 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days :lol: :lol:


That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather. ;-)

By the way, I notice that the 12Z EC is much stronger with the return flow next Tue-Thu. It stalls that weak front north of Houston on Wednesday and keeps us in the warm air (vs. the GFS which moves the front south of us briefly).
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2933 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:57 pm

Another good explanation from NWS. While it paints it as less likely to get banding in the metro area, the chances of seeing some snow fly at least look good:

"National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave is currently moving across North Texas which is
resulting in the light radar echoes and virga over the region.
Clouds are rapidly clearing from west to east in the wake of this
disturbance. Aside from the winds becoming light southerly this
evening, the radiational cooling will be decent enough to allow
temps to fall into the low 30s for most areas. The best
radiational cooling should occur over the west and southwest zones
where winds will become nearly calm ahead of a surface low that
will quickly track southeast across that region by daybreak.

This surface low is currently located in southeast Colorado and
once it swings through the region it will allow the cold arctic
air across the plains to pour south into Texas. It won`t be a well
defined frontal boundary tomorrow morning, as winds over our
region will just make a gradual turn from south to east to north
before increasing to near 15 mph. In any case, cold advection will
become quite strong during the day Thursday which will hold temps
nearly steady in the 30s over northwest zones and cause them to
fall into the 40s during the day elsewhere. Temps will drop below
freezing over the northwest zones around sunset with all but the
southeast zones below 32 by midnight. The atmosphere above the
surface will also cool entirely below freezing everywhere except
the southeast zones by midnight, which means any precipitation
that occurs would be in the form of snow.

The primary forecast challenge is the snow forecast Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. The upper level low currently along the
Oregon coastline will open up and merge into the fast zonal flow
covering the central part of the continent. This energy will be
in a weakened state as it reaches the Plains Friday, but it will
nonetheless be a ripple in the flow that will cause the atmosphere
to undergo some ageostrophic adjustments favorable for upward
vertical motions ahead of it. The principle culprit for the
significant snow will be frontogenesis, which is essentially a
tightening of a temperature gradient that causes a thermal wind
imbalance and results in lift on the warm side of the frontal
boundary. Remember frontal boundaries aren`t just surface
features, they are 3-dimensional, with the 700 mb front farther
north than the 850mb front, which is farther north than the
surface front. Frontogenesis is something we always watch for
closely, because it can result in heavy mesoscale bands of
precipitation that are not well forecast by most models.

For this event the region of frontogenesis that will be key for
the more significant snowfall will be very near the 700 mb front
which is forecast to become draped across the southern Texas
Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. There is excellent agreement in
all of the model guidance that the strongest frontogenesis lift
and best combination of moisture and instability will remain just
north of the Red River and maximized in the time period from
midnight Thursday night to sunrise Friday morning. The most
significant snowfall with this event is going to occur with these
dynamics, so unless there`s a drastic shift southward in the
location of where the 700 mb temperature gradient tightens up
(not likely), this means the potential for any multi-inch amounts
would stay north of the region in Oklahoma. Having said that, the
counties bordering the Red River look to be on the far southern
fringe of these good dynamics, and therefore may see just enough
accumulating snowfall to cause travel impacts by sunrise Friday.
Still we are thinking a quarter to half inch accumulation is
likely, with up to 1 inch a reasonable worst case at this time.
Surface temperatures will be cold enough for snow to stick, but
obviously bridges/overpasses will be the first to become hazardous.

After sunrise Friday the frontogenesis lift will diminish but
there will still be some weak very high level isentropic lift that
will persist north of a line from Eastland to Hillsboro to Athens
through the day. Unlike the frontogenesis lift, this lifting will
be much weaker and not capable of tapping into any instability
for heavier snow bands. Instead it will produce a large swath of
very light snow or snow flurries. This less intense snow will be
falling into very dry air in the low levels (dewpoints in the
teens) which means most of it will be eaten away. Little to no
snow accumulation is expect Friday, but we have mentioned the
light snow or flurries in the forecast for all but the southern
zones. While I think the chance for seeing a few flakes is very
good for areas along and north of I-20, remember the PoPs are for
measurable snowfall, which is very low at just 10-20 percent.
Otherwise due to the extensive cloud cover, temperatures Friday
will spend the day below freezing for all but the southern zones.

The weak isentropic lift will shut down Friday afternoon/evening
and rapid clearing will occur by midnight. This will result in
very cold temperatures with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s over
the region. An unseasonably cold, but mostly clear sky is
forecast for Saturday and Saturday night."


And the 18z GFS eliminates the hole over DFW and at least shows a dusting on this run for the north side of the Metroplex:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2934 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days :lol: :lol:


That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather. ;-)


Of course. If the models forecast 90s in January and February..nails. .frigid...well I would not trust them...ha!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2935 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:44 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Of course. If the models forecast 90s in January and February..nails. .frigid...well I would not trust them...ha!


Frigid? If there's the suggestion of a weak northerly wind and temps in the 60s he says don't trust the models! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2936 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:50 pm

The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2937 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?


The -AO forecast is for the end of January and beginning of Feb. There are some signs of warming in the upper strat or at least perturbations. Long way though and a lot of mixed signals.


Image

SSW event ? it was quite warm the temp scale for red is 28-30c
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2938 Postby davidiowx » Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:52 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!


Go ahead and send that towards SE Texas afterwards please!! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2939 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days :lol: :lol:


That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather. ;-)

By the way, I notice that the 12Z EC is much stronger with the return flow next Tue-Thu. It stalls that weak front north of Houston on Wednesday and keeps us in the warm air (vs. the GFS which moves the front south of us briefly).


It's outside of the 3-5 day window, so I don't trust it :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2940 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:12 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!


The 12z run was pretty interesting for N. Texas as well. Still flipping through model outputs trying to find some banding potential S of the Red River :lol:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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