Texas Winter 2016-2017
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1477
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
I was at the 2000 snow bowl as a Freshman at A&M.
I'm originally from Longview and drove from Shreveport back to Longview, only to find a ditch and ice packed roads in Hallsville.
I'm originally from Longview and drove from Shreveport back to Longview, only to find a ditch and ice packed roads in Hallsville.
1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22985
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Ntxw wrote:I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us![]()
Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!
I would say that you have until the first week or two of March to see snow up in the D-FW area. However, with cold air currently lacking in northern Canada, it's going to be hard to get cold enough air down here (and moisture) for any significant snow. GFS is showing some cooling in Canada at 384hrs. I particularly like that red across the U.S.:

0 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Not seeing any big changes in the 12z guidance. If you are a DFW snow lover then look to the GEFS and Para-NAM... Still, anyone N of I20 is probably still in the 1" game based on the uncertainty associated with where mesoscale features might setup.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Portastorm wrote:Friday looks to be a close call here in the Austin area IF the Euro is right. It develops some rather robust drizzle as overrunning takes hold in the skies above. Two nights ago the 0z Euro showed this as did yesterday's 12z albeit a bit lighter on QPF. Surface temps right now appear to be a few degrees too warm for any freezing precip. But if the Euro is too warm by a few degrees we could have some trouble. Best bet for any wintry mischief appears to be in patchy spots in the Hill Country.
The GFS and NAM show none of this. I'll be eager later this morning to see the Tech WRF model and what it shows. More times than not this is an excellent hi-res, short range model for Texas weather.
Oh, and I would encourage anyone in my area to read the morning AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio. They do a nice job of covering this.
12z Euro still looks fairly aggressive on the drizzle for the greater Austin metro area on Friday. Going to have to watch surface temps around here.
1 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
35 degrees where I am in Fort Worth. If the clouds don't go away I doubt it gets much warmer than it is now. A pretty good temp bust on the high temperature forecasted.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
gpsnowman wrote:35 degrees where I am in Fort Worth. If the clouds don't go away I doubt it gets much warmer than it is now. A pretty good temp bust on the high temperature forecasted.
Wouldn't you know it, clearing out west now with sunny skies.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
I know this is the Texas Winter Weather forum, but I can't help but notice what's going on in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Looks like an atmospheric river of moisture, Pineapple Express-type scenario, is setting up, or has set up. The rainfall and snowfall forecast totals appear high, off the chart!
Great for the snow pack/water supply!
My aunt has a cabin up in the Sierras out there near Mammoth Lakes and June Mountain area. Her area where the cabin is located closes from October through late April. I was just up there in August.



My aunt has a cabin up in the Sierras out there near Mammoth Lakes and June Mountain area. Her area where the cabin is located closes from October through late April. I was just up there in August.


0 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
wxman57 wrote:Ntxw wrote:I see the heat miser trying to butter us snow lovers, just before a huge warm up next week before the fry! He keeps the door just open enough to torture us![]()
Feb is our best month for snow. Its never over until you get past the first half of that month!
I would say that you have until the first week or two of March to see snow up in the D-FW area. However, with cold air currently lacking in northern Canada, it's going to be hard to get cold enough air down here (and moisture) for any significant snow. GFS is showing some cooling in Canada at 384hrs. I particularly like that red across the U.S.:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days


2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?
The -AO forecast is for the end of January and beginning of Feb. There are some signs of warming in the upper strat or at least perturbations. Long way though and a lot of mixed signals.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22985
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days![]()
That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather.

By the way, I notice that the 12Z EC is much stronger with the return flow next Tue-Thu. It stalls that weak front north of Houston on Wednesday and keeps us in the warm air (vs. the GFS which moves the front south of us briefly).
1 likes
- Texas Snow
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 784
- Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
- Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Another good explanation from NWS. While it paints it as less likely to get banding in the metro area, the chances of seeing some snow fly at least look good:
"National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017
.DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave is currently moving across North Texas which is
resulting in the light radar echoes and virga over the region.
Clouds are rapidly clearing from west to east in the wake of this
disturbance. Aside from the winds becoming light southerly this
evening, the radiational cooling will be decent enough to allow
temps to fall into the low 30s for most areas. The best
radiational cooling should occur over the west and southwest zones
where winds will become nearly calm ahead of a surface low that
will quickly track southeast across that region by daybreak.
This surface low is currently located in southeast Colorado and
once it swings through the region it will allow the cold arctic
air across the plains to pour south into Texas. It won`t be a well
defined frontal boundary tomorrow morning, as winds over our
region will just make a gradual turn from south to east to north
before increasing to near 15 mph. In any case, cold advection will
become quite strong during the day Thursday which will hold temps
nearly steady in the 30s over northwest zones and cause them to
fall into the 40s during the day elsewhere. Temps will drop below
freezing over the northwest zones around sunset with all but the
southeast zones below 32 by midnight. The atmosphere above the
surface will also cool entirely below freezing everywhere except
the southeast zones by midnight, which means any precipitation
that occurs would be in the form of snow.
The primary forecast challenge is the snow forecast Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. The upper level low currently along the
Oregon coastline will open up and merge into the fast zonal flow
covering the central part of the continent. This energy will be
in a weakened state as it reaches the Plains Friday, but it will
nonetheless be a ripple in the flow that will cause the atmosphere
to undergo some ageostrophic adjustments favorable for upward
vertical motions ahead of it. The principle culprit for the
significant snow will be frontogenesis, which is essentially a
tightening of a temperature gradient that causes a thermal wind
imbalance and results in lift on the warm side of the frontal
boundary. Remember frontal boundaries aren`t just surface
features, they are 3-dimensional, with the 700 mb front farther
north than the 850mb front, which is farther north than the
surface front. Frontogenesis is something we always watch for
closely, because it can result in heavy mesoscale bands of
precipitation that are not well forecast by most models.
For this event the region of frontogenesis that will be key for
the more significant snowfall will be very near the 700 mb front
which is forecast to become draped across the southern Texas
Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. There is excellent agreement in
all of the model guidance that the strongest frontogenesis lift
and best combination of moisture and instability will remain just
north of the Red River and maximized in the time period from
midnight Thursday night to sunrise Friday morning. The most
significant snowfall with this event is going to occur with these
dynamics, so unless there`s a drastic shift southward in the
location of where the 700 mb temperature gradient tightens up
(not likely), this means the potential for any multi-inch amounts
would stay north of the region in Oklahoma. Having said that, the
counties bordering the Red River look to be on the far southern
fringe of these good dynamics, and therefore may see just enough
accumulating snowfall to cause travel impacts by sunrise Friday.
Still we are thinking a quarter to half inch accumulation is
likely, with up to 1 inch a reasonable worst case at this time.
Surface temperatures will be cold enough for snow to stick, but
obviously bridges/overpasses will be the first to become hazardous.
After sunrise Friday the frontogenesis lift will diminish but
there will still be some weak very high level isentropic lift that
will persist north of a line from Eastland to Hillsboro to Athens
through the day. Unlike the frontogenesis lift, this lifting will
be much weaker and not capable of tapping into any instability
for heavier snow bands. Instead it will produce a large swath of
very light snow or snow flurries. This less intense snow will be
falling into very dry air in the low levels (dewpoints in the
teens) which means most of it will be eaten away. Little to no
snow accumulation is expect Friday, but we have mentioned the
light snow or flurries in the forecast for all but the southern
zones. While I think the chance for seeing a few flakes is very
good for areas along and north of I-20, remember the PoPs are for
measurable snowfall, which is very low at just 10-20 percent.
Otherwise due to the extensive cloud cover, temperatures Friday
will spend the day below freezing for all but the southern zones.
The weak isentropic lift will shut down Friday afternoon/evening
and rapid clearing will occur by midnight. This will result in
very cold temperatures with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s over
the region. An unseasonably cold, but mostly clear sky is
forecast for Saturday and Saturday night."
And the 18z GFS eliminates the hole over DFW and at least shows a dusting on this run for the north side of the Metroplex:

"National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017
.DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave is currently moving across North Texas which is
resulting in the light radar echoes and virga over the region.
Clouds are rapidly clearing from west to east in the wake of this
disturbance. Aside from the winds becoming light southerly this
evening, the radiational cooling will be decent enough to allow
temps to fall into the low 30s for most areas. The best
radiational cooling should occur over the west and southwest zones
where winds will become nearly calm ahead of a surface low that
will quickly track southeast across that region by daybreak.
This surface low is currently located in southeast Colorado and
once it swings through the region it will allow the cold arctic
air across the plains to pour south into Texas. It won`t be a well
defined frontal boundary tomorrow morning, as winds over our
region will just make a gradual turn from south to east to north
before increasing to near 15 mph. In any case, cold advection will
become quite strong during the day Thursday which will hold temps
nearly steady in the 30s over northwest zones and cause them to
fall into the 40s during the day elsewhere. Temps will drop below
freezing over the northwest zones around sunset with all but the
southeast zones below 32 by midnight. The atmosphere above the
surface will also cool entirely below freezing everywhere except
the southeast zones by midnight, which means any precipitation
that occurs would be in the form of snow.
The primary forecast challenge is the snow forecast Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. The upper level low currently along the
Oregon coastline will open up and merge into the fast zonal flow
covering the central part of the continent. This energy will be
in a weakened state as it reaches the Plains Friday, but it will
nonetheless be a ripple in the flow that will cause the atmosphere
to undergo some ageostrophic adjustments favorable for upward
vertical motions ahead of it. The principle culprit for the
significant snow will be frontogenesis, which is essentially a
tightening of a temperature gradient that causes a thermal wind
imbalance and results in lift on the warm side of the frontal
boundary. Remember frontal boundaries aren`t just surface
features, they are 3-dimensional, with the 700 mb front farther
north than the 850mb front, which is farther north than the
surface front. Frontogenesis is something we always watch for
closely, because it can result in heavy mesoscale bands of
precipitation that are not well forecast by most models.
For this event the region of frontogenesis that will be key for
the more significant snowfall will be very near the 700 mb front
which is forecast to become draped across the southern Texas
Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. There is excellent agreement in
all of the model guidance that the strongest frontogenesis lift
and best combination of moisture and instability will remain just
north of the Red River and maximized in the time period from
midnight Thursday night to sunrise Friday morning. The most
significant snowfall with this event is going to occur with these
dynamics, so unless there`s a drastic shift southward in the
location of where the 700 mb temperature gradient tightens up
(not likely), this means the potential for any multi-inch amounts
would stay north of the region in Oklahoma. Having said that, the
counties bordering the Red River look to be on the far southern
fringe of these good dynamics, and therefore may see just enough
accumulating snowfall to cause travel impacts by sunrise Friday.
Still we are thinking a quarter to half inch accumulation is
likely, with up to 1 inch a reasonable worst case at this time.
Surface temperatures will be cold enough for snow to stick, but
obviously bridges/overpasses will be the first to become hazardous.
After sunrise Friday the frontogenesis lift will diminish but
there will still be some weak very high level isentropic lift that
will persist north of a line from Eastland to Hillsboro to Athens
through the day. Unlike the frontogenesis lift, this lifting will
be much weaker and not capable of tapping into any instability
for heavier snow bands. Instead it will produce a large swath of
very light snow or snow flurries. This less intense snow will be
falling into very dry air in the low levels (dewpoints in the
teens) which means most of it will be eaten away. Little to no
snow accumulation is expect Friday, but we have mentioned the
light snow or flurries in the forecast for all but the southern
zones. While I think the chance for seeing a few flakes is very
good for areas along and north of I-20, remember the PoPs are for
measurable snowfall, which is very low at just 10-20 percent.
Otherwise due to the extensive cloud cover, temperatures Friday
will spend the day below freezing for all but the southern zones.
The weak isentropic lift will shut down Friday afternoon/evening
and rapid clearing will occur by midnight. This will result in
very cold temperatures with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s over
the region. An unseasonably cold, but mostly clear sky is
forecast for Saturday and Saturday night."
And the 18z GFS eliminates the hole over DFW and at least shows a dusting on this run for the north side of the Metroplex:

1 likes
"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"


- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
wxman57 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days![]()
That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather.
Of course. If the models forecast 90s in January and February..nails. .frigid...well I would not trust them...ha!
1 likes
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Tireman4 wrote:Of course. If the models forecast 90s in January and February..nails. .frigid...well I would not trust them...ha!
Frigid? If there's the suggestion of a weak northerly wind and temps in the 60s he says don't trust the models!

1 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Ntxw wrote:Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, i heard the ao supposed to go negative and mjo should get in more favorable phases, but models arent reflecting it. Mainly toward mid-end of jan. Do you agree or not?
The -AO forecast is for the end of January and beginning of Feb. There are some signs of warming in the upper strat or at least perturbations. Long way though and a lot of mixed signals.

SSW event ? it was quite warm the temp scale for red is 28-30c
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
TexasF6 wrote:The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!
Go ahead and send that towards SE Texas afterwards please!!

0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
wxman57 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
I wouldnt trust the models at this point past 3-5 days![]()
That doesn't apply when they're forecasting warm weather.
By the way, I notice that the 12Z EC is much stronger with the return flow next Tue-Thu. It stalls that weak front north of Houston on Wednesday and keeps us in the warm air (vs. the GFS which moves the front south of us briefly).
It's outside of the 3-5 day window, so I don't trust it

0 likes
Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
TexasF6 wrote:The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!
The 12z run was pretty interesting for N. Texas as well. Still flipping through model outputs trying to find some banding potential S of the Red River

1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests