Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Longhornmaniac8]

The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!

Are you sure? The most recent model run that I see doesn't seem to show anything in the way of precipitation for Central TX through the end of its run. It does seem to indicate that should there be moisture, it would fall in the form of frozen precip, but I don't see any precip to speak of.



Cold



But dry.

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing?

Cheers,
Cameron

[South Texas Storms]

You are correct longhorn. I'm not sure what F6 is looking at. I'm not seeing any precip on the TTU WRF either.

[Ntxw]

DFW had a high today of 40 degrees, most of the day was in the 30s. Tomorrow won't be much warmer, Friday will attempt freezing at best. Then 70 next week! The jekyll and hyde of this winter .

[OKMet83]

I haven't had time to look at New data but I will shortly, however OKC Media specifically KFOR Mike Morgan calling for "High impact event" now across OK with amounts increasing, travel issues likely...

https://www.facebook.com/MikeMorganKFOR ... =3&theater

https://www.facebook.com/MikeMorganKFOR ... =3&theater

[Ntxw]

FYI the EPO is 3SD's below normal, lowest of the winter thus far

2016 12 01 103.67
2016 12 02 118.78
2016 12 03 103.71
2016 12 04 42.98
2016 12 05 -54.91
2016 12 06 -94.35
2016 12 07 -91.45
2016 12 08 -87.29
2016 12 09 -28.99
2016 12 10 -18.27
2016 12 11 -90.97
2016 12 12 -170.76
2016 12 13 -248.21
2016 12 14 -271.22
2016 12 15 -230.81
2016 12 16 -125.80
2016 12 17 -5.64
2016 12 18 136.82
2016 12 19 272.82
2016 12 20 262.48
2016 12 21 194.46
2016 12 22 159.87
2016 12 23 104.26
2016 12 24 85.30
2016 12 25 132.39
2016 12 26 178.51
2016 12 27 256.96
2016 12 28 187.20
2016 12 29 -48.90
2016 12 30 -162.40
2016 12 31 -209.44
2017 01 01 -280.70
2017 01 02 -344.36

This index basically tells the story of December, good first half, terrible last stretch.

[Ntxw]

The Texas Tech Model is also very aggressive with sleet, frzrn, & a little snow. For Austin & Central Texas. Friday could be very interesting indeed!

The 12z run was pretty interesting for N. Texas as well. Still flipping through model outputs trying to find some banding potential S of the Red River

Perhaps the 12z Parallel GFS?

GFS MOS has DFW a high of 29F and a low of 17F with an inch of snow (I think it means an inch?). Pretty close to what we saw in the blast before Christmas

[Brent]

is it going to snow or not lol

I'm about ready for the warmup if it's not going to...

[JayDT]

So are the snow chances going up here?? Even if it is just a little bit lol

[TexasF6]

Mabye I read it incorrectly? It said snow was blue, purple was a mix? My screen at work has color issues sometimes..... That makes me sad. I want WINTERWX!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We expected this from this winter, big cold events with warm ups in between. Hopefully we get two more cold events at least!

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, whats causing the warmup next week with that strong pac jet hitting west coast with a ton of snow out west? A pna is forecast to turn more neutral to even somewhat positive so the pac jet is confusing me unless the ridge comes after the pac jet sets up

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, whats causing the warmup next week with that strong pac jet hitting west coast with a ton of snow out west? A pna is forecast to turn more neutral to even somewhat positive so the pac jet is confusing me unless the ridge comes after the pac jet sets up

Trough in the GOA off the coast of Pac NW as the EPO ridge retrogrades. Troughs off the Pac coast is usually warm for us, brings in lots of mild Pacific air.

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw, whats causing the warmup next week with that strong pac jet hitting west coast with a ton of snow out west? A pna is forecast to turn more neutral to even somewhat positive so the pac jet is confusing me unless the ridge comes after the pac jet sets up

Trough in the GOA off the coast of Pac NW as the EPO ridge retrogrades. Troughs off the Pac coast is usually warm for us, brings in lots of mild Pacific air.

12z Euro EPS is just ugly at D15 - troughing over Alaska and the jet roaring from Japan across the Pacific to the WC...

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, whats causing the warmup next week with that strong pac jet hitting west coast with a ton of snow out west? A pna is forecast to turn more neutral to even somewhat positive so the pac jet is confusing me unless the ridge comes after the pac jet sets up

Trough in the GOA off the coast of Pac NW as the EPO ridge retrogrades. Troughs off the Pac coast is usually warm for us, brings in lots of mild Pacific air.

12z Euro EPS is just ugly at D15 - troughing over Alaska and the jet roaring from Japan across the Pacific to the WC...

Yep, mid month warm up. It should get better towards the end of the month, if you believed the recent runs of the euro weeklies.

[Ntxw]

Earlier the forecasted low for DFW for tonight was 34F. This morning's GFS run had a low of 35-36. DFW is currently sitting at 34F as of 8PM but clouds will be rolling in soon

[bubba hotep]

Earlier the forecasted low for DFW for tonight was 34F. This morning's GFS run had a low of 35-36. DFW is currently sitting at 34F as of 8PM but clouds will be rolling in soon

A little cooler tonight, a little cooler tomorrow, and maybe the front can push farther south? HRRR gets most everyone down to 30ish or lower. Then has the front through before the northern burbs can get out of the 30s.

[orangeblood]

Earlier the forecasted low for DFW for tonight was 34F. This morning's GFS run had a low of 35-36. DFW is currently sitting at 34F as of 8PM but clouds will be rolling in soon

A little cooler tonight, a little cooler tomorrow, and maybe the front can push farther south? HRRR gets most everyone down to 30ish or lower. Then has the front through before the northern burbs can get out of the 30s.

And maybe projected frontogenesis further south than currently modeled??

[Ntxw]

Earlier the forecasted low for DFW for tonight was 34F. This morning's GFS run had a low of 35-36. DFW is currently sitting at 34F as of 8PM but clouds will be rolling in soon

A little cooler tonight, a little cooler tomorrow, and maybe the front can push farther south? HRRR gets most everyone down to 30ish or lower. Then has the front through before the northern burbs can get out of the 30s.

Yeah I think 40 may be pushing it tomorrow. Especially if the next front (very blustery behind it) makes it through early in the morning with strong cold air advection. We may have another day fighting the diurnal cycle. Cold is certainly not the problem...

[JayDT]

Earlier the forecasted low for DFW for tonight was 34F. This morning's GFS run had a low of 35-36. DFW is currently sitting at 34F as of 8PM but clouds will be rolling in soon

A little cooler tonight, a little cooler tomorrow, and maybe the front can push farther south? HRRR gets most everyone down to 30ish or lower. Then has the front through before the northern burbs can get out of the 30s.

And maybe projected frontogenesis further south than currently modeled??

I sure hope so!

[Brent]

alright Atlanta's getting their winter storm(probably, GFS would be biggest storm in over 20 years)... when is ours?