Texas Winter 2016-2017

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CentralTxAggie
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3101 Postby CentralTxAggie » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:29 am

Portastorm wrote:Shocking news to report ... the models underestimated the cold. :roll:

Highs for Austin today are below freezing. That's a several degree departure from yesterday and what I would call a significant one. Patchy freezing precip being reported in Hays and Bastrop counties with some bridges icing over. Nothing much in Travis County as best as I can tell.


So far, no ice on my commute from S. Austin to Kyle via I-35. Light drizzle in Kyle, cars parked overnight with light glaze on windshield. Hope this doesn't go on all day or I will have tricky commute home this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3102 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:32 am

CentralTxAggie wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Shocking news to report ... the models underestimated the cold. :roll:

Highs for Austin today are below freezing. That's a several degree departure from yesterday and what I would call a significant one. Patchy freezing precip being reported in Hays and Bastrop counties with some bridges icing over. Nothing much in Travis County as best as I can tell.


So far, no ice on my commute from S. Austin to Kyle via I-35. Light drizzle in Kyle, cars parked overnight with light glaze on windshield. Hope this doesn't go on all day or I will have tricky commute home this afternoon.


It should be ending before lunch. Also radar returns suggest that whatever stuff is falling is mostly south and east of Austin. Looks like the HRRR last night did a great job as did King Euro. The GFS and Tech WRF did not, at least with today's weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3103 Postby DonWrk » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:33 am

Flurries up here right now. Very little snow on the windows of the vehicles but nonetheless it's cold!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3104 Postby hookem2588 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:37 am

Nothing but very cold in Mansfield / Grand Prairie line by Joe Pool Lake. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3105 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:39 am

36 here in Sugar Land/ Missouri City. Dewpoint is dropping. At 33 right now
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3106 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:44 am

Getting some rain mixed with sleet here now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3107 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:46 am

RUC sounding for Houston has temps up to 50F at 6000 ft up. Sub-freezing layer is between 1000-3000 ft up. That should be enough for sleet pellets.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3108 Postby gboudx » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:47 am

Latest from jeff:

Damaging Freeze likely this weekend

Very cold arctic air mass pouring into the region this morning.

Freeze line has progressed southward into SE TX very near what the HRRR was showing last evening or roughly from Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus. Radar is showing some light returns within the freezing air mass over the NW ½ of the region and some of this may be reaching the ground and freezing on contact…freezing drizzle or freezing rain. Surface temperatures have fallen into the upper 20’s across Burleson, Madison, and Brazos Counties and think any icing of bridges and overpasses would be in this region if at all. Further south while temperatures are at or below freezing ground warmth will likely prevent any surface ice accumulation. Not expecting temperatures to fall to freezing across Harris, Fort Bend, or Montgomery Counties.

As the precipitation shifts towards the south this afternoon the cold air will deepen and there may be a narrow window for sleet to mix with the rain or few a few snow flurries.

Wind chills this evening will lower into the 1’s and 10’s across the region as temperatures fall into the 20’s and wind remain in the 10-20mph range. Currently expecting wind chills between 9-13 at College Station and 16-21 across Houston. Wind chills from Columbus to Huntsville and NW this evening and overnight will be getting into dangerous levels and persons should limit time outside and completely cover all skin.

Will lower forecasted lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings and this will result in a damaging hard freeze Saturday morning north of HWY 105 and Sunday morning N of US 59 including a large portion of NW Harris County. May need to lower the numbers listed below a couple of degrees.

Duration of sub-freezing temperatures and intensity will be extremely damaging to tropical vegetation and in some case exposed pipes may freeze and burst…especially with outdoor sprinkler systems. Many areas will see freezing temperatures 8-10 hours Saturday and 10-15 hours Sunday. Precautions should be taken to protect plants, pipes, pets/livestock today.

Saturday Morning:
HWY 105 N: 20-24
US 59 N: 24-28
US 59 S: 29-33

Sunday Morning:
HWY 105 N: 18-21
US 59 N: 22-26
US 59 S: 26-30
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3109 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 am

Austin's sub-freezing layer goes from the surface to nearly 5000 ft. Low to mid 40s above 5000 ft. There's not much moisture, though.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3110 Postby Cuda17 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:52 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Well us here in SE Tx are surprised with coller temps. Not supposed to be 36 here in SW Houston right now. West side of Houston or jsut outside is seeing Frz rain or sleet


Yes, here in Bellville, it's mostly liquid with a few pellets. But the liquid stuff is freezing on contact to the cars and mailboxes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3111 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:52 am

Story of their lives!


Wxman57, you think Houston metro is in trouble for today? Dewpoint is still dropping. Hard enough rain and we could get below 32. Really tough forecast today. Sleet looks very like, super warm around 5000ft.
My dewpoint is at 31 btw. Still dropping.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3112 Postby gboudx » Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:57 am

METAR and public reports of light rain mixing with sleet across NW Harris and Montgomery Counties with surface temperatures down to 33 in NW Harris County. Not expecting any accumulation of ice or sleet SE of a line from Huntsville to Conroe to Waller to Katy to Columbus. NW of this line very light amounts of sleet or freezing drizzle may occur on elevated objects not in contact with the ground warmth.

Freezing drizzle has resulted in numerous bridges glazing across Bastrop County where portions of Hwy 71 and HWY 21 are currently being closed due to ice on bridges and numerous accidents. Portions of US 290 are also icing on bridges west of Giddings. Reports of icing on bridges appears to match well with surface temperatures in the upper 20’s being able to overwhelm the ground warmth. Could see some minor icing patches the next 2-4 hours across western Colorado County, western Washington County, all of Burleson County, and western Brazos County.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3113 Postby rearview » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:00 am

Freezing rain starting in College Station. Not a lot, but it is 29 and raining as I am arriving at work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3114 Postby Snowman67 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:04 am

32.6 F here with mixed rain and ice pellets.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3115 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:05 am

There are some seriously aggressive ENS members with the storm next weekend....several members showing 1048+ HP's draped across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes with a trough digging into the southwest US. Increasing potential for another possible winter event next weekend :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3116 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:11 am

Nothing to report on here in down town FTW. Cold and 25 degrees. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3117 Postby Theepicman116 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:13 am

Walking into school this morning from my car in the parking lot it started snowing. Now their probably just flurries but still!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3118 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:13 am

Portastorm wrote:
CentralTxAggie wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Shocking news to report ... the models underestimated the cold. :roll:

Highs for Austin today are below freezing. That's a several degree departure from yesterday and what I would call a significant one. Patchy freezing precip being reported in Hays and Bastrop counties with some bridges icing over. Nothing much in Travis County as best as I can tell.


So far, no ice on my commute from S. Austin to Kyle via I-35. Light drizzle in Kyle, cars parked overnight with light glaze on windshield. Hope this doesn't go on all day or I will have tricky commute home this afternoon.


It should be ending before lunch. Also radar returns suggest that whatever stuff is falling is mostly south and east of Austin. Looks like the HRRR last night did a great job as did King Euro. The GFS and Tech WRF did not, at least with today's weather.


No precip. on my way to work from south Cedar Park to North Austin. Just windy and COLD. :flag: :cold:
My house thermometer ready 27 degrees when I left. The car read 28 degrees on the drive, warming to 30 at work..
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3119 Postby TarrantWx » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:14 am

I can confirm some very very light flurries in far north fort worth/Keller area. You have to look hard to see the flakes but I can see them landing on the windshield.

Edit: Picking up in intensity although still light. But definitely more noticeable in the air now
Last edited by TarrantWx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3120 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:16 am

The first band of light to moderate snow continues to move east
across Oklahoma early this morning. Some light snow may brush the
extreme northern parts of North Texas, along the Red River, but
amounts will be very light. This activity is associated with
strong frontogenetic forcing.

The better chance for snow across North Texas will be from late
morning into the afternoon as the main piece of shortwave energy
moves across the region. At this time, it looks like snowfall
amounts will be very light but given temperatures in the upper
teens to mid 20s, even 1/2 inch of snow could cause some travel
impacts, thus have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
the counties in our forecast area that abut the Red River -
Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Fannin and Lamar. Farther south, there
will be a chance for some light snow or snow flurries as far south
as a Goldthwaite to Centerville line this afternoon. Cannot rule
out a dusting as far south as the I-20 corridor. The snow will
come to an abrupt end from west to the east mid to late afternoon
as the lift associated with the shortwave shifts eastward.
Temperatures today will remain in the 20s across the north and
just rise into the lower to middle 30s across the south. This
combined with north winds of 10 to 20 mph will result in wind
chill readings as low as the single digits across the northwest to
the upper teens across the southeast. Some winds gusts to 25 mph
will be possible today.

With clearing skies tonight, it will be quite cold with lows in
the teens to around 20 degrees. Northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph
will continue into the evening but the winds should decrease to 5
to 10 mph after midnight. Despite abundant sunshine on Saturday,
highs will only reach the 30s. Expect another cold night Saturday
night. The arctic high will start to move east allowing light
south to southeast winds to return by daybreak Sunday. Lows will
be in the teens to lower 20s. It won`t be quite as cold Sunday
with highs in the 40s area wide.


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