Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Cpv17]

Big shortwave along the US/Mexican border by hr 144 CA/AZ. Storm is real at least

This should help pull down the cold air correct?

[Brent]

OKC gets 2" of QPF with sfc temps below freezing and temps above freezing aloft...

Rain ends in DFW before its cold enough on the Euro

[TheProfessor]

I get .87 of an inch of freezing rain on the 0z GFS, the real story would be the 3" of freezing rain it drops in SE Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

Big shortwave along the US/Mexican border by hr 144 CA/AZ. Storm is real at least

This should help pull down the cold air correct?

The cold air would be shallow, cold will likely arrive sooner than the actual system. Dependent on that high's ability to drive cold air down the plains. The system will draw lots of moisture well ahead of it's passage.

[CountryWeather]

:uarrow: Anything over 1" of ice accumulation would be catastrophic. I lived through one of those ice storms in December of 2000. The Weather Channel rated it the 7th worst ice storm in American history. The piney woods of NE Texas was about the worst place a devastating ice storm could occur. The only saving grace in the DFW area is that there isn't a lot foliage.

Was that the Christmas storm?

My parents and I drove back from Enid, OK through the Ouchita Mountains to our home in Arkansas. We literally wonder how we are alive.

[gpsnowman]

I have a long weekend planned in downtown Dallas with my wife and child. This is turning out to be quite interesting. Just read the early morning NWS discussion and the plot thickens...........

[TheProfessor]

6z GFS crushes areas just north and west of the Metro.

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge we have 22 degrees with a pressure of 30.72. Slight breeze outside might not be giving the 100% optimal radiation. Might not reach the record low of 20 set in 2014 and 2015. Still colder than Barrow Alaska which is sitting at 27 degrees.

[Portastorm]

The HP is building from the air mass that has origins from Siberia, via cross polar flow occurring now from the -WPO. I'd bet the farm GFS is underplaying the temps.

In relation to Ntxw's post from last night, I believe the GFS was off by roughly 5 degrees within 48 hours of this most recent cold "event." Assuming the same for next weekend may be faulty logic but the GFS is known for having this bias.

The 0z Euro was warmer for this next weekend than the 0z GFS and yesterday's 12z Euro.

Obviously tons of time to watch future runs to see how this next system is captured (or not) by the models. And for the record, I never like to see crippling ice storms like what the 0z GFS is showing and the type of which aggiecutter referred to last night.

[Snowman67]

Got down to 20F again. Can't remember the last time that has happened two nights in a row here.

[gto67]

18 in Weimar this morning.

[bubba hotep]

Way to early to try and worry about details for next weeks storm but there was a pretty obvious and big change from the 12z to 00z Euro at H5. The 00z takes more of a NE track and by 12z next Sunday the system is much weaker looking with a general positive tilt. The 12z has more of a easterly component with a much more defined cutoff with an overall negative tilt to the through by 12z next Sunday. The SE ridge is stronger on the 00z as well but way to early to dig into the "why" of the changes.

[Ralph's Weather]

We reached 13 yesterday and 15 today. I will be watching temperature trends closely for next weekend.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Well, thanks for bringing some of that polar air our way. It got down to 25.2 degrees here at my locale in Northern Jacksonville, FL eariler this morning. Coldest of the season to this point. We will be back in the 70s by Wednesday. Given the pattern, unless we see a -NAO materialize, which we have not seen here in over 6 years during the meterological winter months, this is probably the coldest weather we will have here all season.

[bubba hotep]

Para-GFS was pretty good with the last system. 00z has the system kicking out across Texas:



Blocking high across the NE:



that helps keep cold air in place:



All the ingredients are there but do they mix up for a big Texas winter storm?

[vbhoutex]

Got down to 20F again. Can't remember the last time that has happened two nights in a row here.

24f at my house this am. Like you , I can't remember the last time we had temps like this. 20F yesterday and 24F today. 50s for a high is going to feel like a heat wave.

[hriverajr]

6z GFS continues the idea of an ice storm in NW Texas...getting consistent. Potent 500 mb low deep into Mexico.

[orangeblood]

6z GFS continues the idea of an ice storm in NW Texas...getting consistent. Potent 500 mb low deep into Mexico.

Yep, GFS ENS Mean trending colder as well...some crippling ice storms on a significant amount of its members. Tough forecast but prudent to assume colder than modeled - typically always is regarding these source regions

[bubba hotep]

Moisture doesn't look to be an issue

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/818121933334183936

[Ntxw]

12z GFS could be another big run.