Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3501 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:49 pm

Euro stalls the ULL in NW Mexico so more rain early to middle next week
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3502 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro stalls the ULL in NW Mexico so more rain early to middle next week


Well-known bias of the Euro to sluggishly handle ULL movement out of the desert Southwest.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3503 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:18 pm

12Z Euro ends with a blow torch over most of the United States and Southern Canada:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3504 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:27 pm

:uarrow: Perfect, annual mid January winter cancel posts are a staple here :D. But won't be as dramatic this year since most of us have already seen cold and some snow :wink:. Last weekend likely served its purpose in dialing it down a bit. Still got to get Portastorm snow though...in Feb.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3505 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro ends with a blow torch over most of the United States and Southern Canada:

https://s28.postimg.org/wfbhh8pcd/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png



Oh great. Wxman57 will really harp on this. The Euro forecasting 90s. Nails. Same weather as Australia for the Australian Open. Count on it
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3506 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro ends with a blow torch over most of the United States and Southern Canada:

https://s28.postimg.org/wfbhh8pcd/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png


I definitely believe that forecast! GFS is similar for that time frame, but has cold air returning by the 24th. I believe the 10-day forecast but not the 16-day. ;-)

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3507 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:18 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro ends with a blow torch over most of the United States and Southern Canada:

https://s28.postimg.org/wfbhh8pcd/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png


Oh great. Wxman57 will really harp on this. The Euro forecasting 90s. Nails. Same weather as Australia for the Australian Open. Count on it


What? Me harp on a warm weather forecast? Never! :firedevil:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3508 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:26 pm

Brent wrote:LOL the GFS doesn't even have a freeze here through 384 hours

I guess I won't complain though, if it's not going to snow might as well not. :lol: and I have no desire in inches of ice.

Bring on the heavy rain :rain:


Just give it a few runs. I'm sure it will continue to flip flop.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3509 Postby Theepicman116 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:29 pm

It maybe 66 but damn it it's winter and if I can't use my long sleeves at least once a week during winter then it's not winter!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3510 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:57 pm

Wow

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3511 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:16 pm

This is one of the weirdest winters I can recall. It's either really cold or really warm with only a couple days here & there around average. We go from record cold in some spots to record warm in some other spots. Crazy! :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3512 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:26 pm

We had an up and down winter like this in 1995-1996. 90s and single digits. Fwiw NAM late in the run is pushing the front through. HP is a little further west than GFS, raining pretty good
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3513 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:28 pm

Keep an eye on this weekend guys, The 18z Nam goes out to Friday morning and it's colder than the GFS,(I've heard the NAM as done well with temps, at least for the guys in the Central plains and Midwest) this could possibly allow a baroclinic zone to be further south which could impact temperatures later in the weekend. This is important for me because right now the Euro has me at 32.9 degrees with about .5-.75 liquid qpf, that would be cutting it really close.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3514 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:We had an up and down winter like this in 1995-1996. 90s and single digits. Fwiw NAM late in the run is pushing the front through. HP is a little further west than GFS, raining pretty good


Yes sir, I'm hoping that is the perfect analog winter.

Jan. 28, 1996 - the Dallas Cowboys won their fifth Super Bowl championship. Then right after that, it got REALLY cold.

:D :D :D :D :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3515 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:42 pm

:uarrow: Yep, single digits later the next week I believe. And then later in Feb was a 96 degree day if memory serves me right. Wild wacky temps swings.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3516 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:48 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Keep an eye on this weekend guys, The 18z Nam goes out to Friday morning and it's colder than the GFS,(I've heard the NAM as done well with temps, at least for the guys in the Central plains and Midwest) this could possibly allow a baroclinic zone to be further south which could impact temperatures later in the weekend. This is important for me because right now the Euro has me at 32.9 degrees with about .5-.75 liquid qpf, that would be cutting it really close.


My brother who lives in Charlotte (NC) and writes about weather told me that the NAM clearly outperformed both the Euro and GFS on the Carolinas winter storm this past weekend. Granted, we're talking about model performance within 48 hours of the event. He said the NAM was a bit too heavy on qpf but not off by a lot. And that it nailed the low placement as well as modeling the 850mb nose which was in play there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3517 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro ends with a blow torch over most of the United States and Southern Canada:

Image


Look at this. This is no blue whatsoever on this map and here we are in the supposed dead of winter? Incredible!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3518 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:00 pm

Just finished my winter homework by looking at the model runs. Arctic needs to load up again anyway! :)

Looks like the main high in the Pacific will be strong and centered around Hawaii for a bit and will sling some storms into the West coast in a very Nino pattern like Ntx said. Going skiing in a couple weeks so im ok with that! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3519 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:10 pm

I am really looking forward to Feb. The Euro weeklies helped solidify what a lot of other longer range guidance is hinting. The early part of the month looks like the pattern of stormy, cooler Febs. I'm not a huge fan of the +PNA but with a weakening La Nada undercutting the western ridge could work for us with a southern stream. Lots of warmth to go through before the end of the month though.

But if we can build up +rain anomalies during the milder period it's a lot better than warm and dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3520 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:I am really looking forward to Feb. The Euro weeklies helped solidify what a lot of other longer range guidance is hinting. The early part of the month looks like the pattern of stormy, cooler Febs. I'm not a huge fan of the +PNA but with a weakening La Nada undercutting the western ridge could work for us with a southern stream. Lots of warmth to go through before the end of the month though.

But if we can build up +rain anomalies during the milder period it's a lot better than warm and dry



Sooooo ... warm or cold or wet or dry?
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