Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, JB is going bonkers when seeing the mjo going into colder phases on euro. Are u including that as well? I think the key is the pacific and if enough changes to shake up the pattern. If we get an active s jet, that's great but we want enuf cold air to work with also to see winter precipitation

[Golf7070]

Mike ventrice mentioned the cfsv2 indicated more ridging over north pacific toward Alaska for Feb. Not sure how accurate the map is or model in general

[Brent]

12z Euro goes nuts and has almost 6" of rain at DFW by Monday Night Over 3" falls Sunday Night alone

GFS has about 2" total

[Ntxw]

Mike ventrice mentioned the cfsv2 indicated more ridging over north pacific toward Alaska for Feb. Not sure how accurate the map is or model in general

Its the cyclical nature of the state this winter since November. Cold N Asia extends Pacific jet bringing warm Pacific air-> jet retracts popping -EPO/-WPO- gets cold -> Pac ridge retrogrades and cold air dumps back into Asia and Pacific jet extends...rinse, repeat. The cold tongue below the Aleutians to GOA has prevented the -EPO from locking in place like 2013-2014 where we had a huge warm pool. Nina vs +PDO

[bubba hotep]

Currently 57 in Denton and 77 in Dallas. Front should be moving through MBY any minute now.

[Brent]

Currently 57 in Denton and 77 in Dallas. Front should be moving through MBY any minute now.

I'm in Wylie and can't wait. Lol.

It's interesting to look at the hi-res models with the fropa overnight and tomorrow. The 4km NAM has 40s at DFW in the metroplex most of the day tomorrow but mid to upper 60s over by Emory and Sulphur Springs.

The HRRR has 50s in the metroplex and 60s in the same areas above at daybreak.

Going further out the 4km NAM keeps DFW in the 40s Saturday too with 60s and even some 70s just east of the metro

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro goes nuts and has almost 6" of rain at DFW by Monday Night Over 3" falls Sunday Night alone

GFS has about 2" total

12z Euro EPS seems to support a precip max along or to the east of I35 in N. Texas. I'm ready for a good soaking!

[bubba hotep]

The trends have been towards a faster PVA and a slower H5 trough in the SW.

Ice storm run vs the 12z from today. Also, notice the changes in the SE ridge.

DFW Ice Storm



No Ice Storm



The finer details didn't work out for ice in DFW but models handled the larger scale pattern well and there will still be a storm, just rain instead of ice.

[Portastorm]

So here we are on January 12th in Austin, Texas, in the middle of meteorological "winter" ... and new record high temperatures were reached at both the airport (81) and Camp Mabry (79). The previous record came in 2000.

No doubt wxman57 is having a field day with his thermostat.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im guessing nobody in here saw the Euro 10 days out. While far away, that is one doozy of a storm. MJO effect there?

[Brent]

DFW dropped from 77 to 66

Fropa

[Ntxw]

Let me just say this, GFS the past few days has been bad. Never had fropa, s/sw winds the entire time up until 6Z today. Cannot handle shallow cold air masses.

[wxman57]

Mike ventrice mentioned the cfsv2 indicated more ridging over north pacific toward Alaska for Feb. Not sure how accurate the map is or model in general

12Z Euro is going the other way - Building ridge over Hudson Bay and trof to the west. I've never found cvsv2 to be very accurate. In fact, it typically forecasts the opposite of what eventually happens. Remember last year when it was the only model predicting La Nina during the hurricane season?

[Ntxw]

Mike ventrice mentioned the cfsv2 indicated more ridging over north pacific toward Alaska for Feb. Not sure how accurate the map is or model in general

12Z Euro is going the other way - Building ridge over Hudson Bay and trof to the west. I've never found cvsv2 to be very accurate. In fact, it typically forecasts the opposite of what eventually happens. Remember last year when it was the only model predicting La Nina during the hurricane season?

Cfsv2 seasonal has warm bias! But the weekly and monthly has some skill. Its been good December and Jan so far. I'd argue at times better than euro weeklies which seems to struggle too.

[Brent]

Let me just say this, GFS the past few days has been bad. Never had fropa, s/sw winds the entire time up until 6Z today. Cannot handle shallow cold air masses.

Yep absolutely terrible. It's been amazing to watch the hi-res models look so different.

I just walked outside and just in the last hour it feels like a different airmass. Actually a hint of a chill in the air.

[Ntxw]

Cedar Fever relief with the wind shift. I am ready for rain.

[Brent]

FWD has 47 at DFW tomorrow... the GFS still has 60s at this late hour. Around 50 on Saturday, GFS has 70s...

[gboudx]

It's through my part of Rockwall county. North wind and temp down to 68.

[bubba hotep]

Im guessing nobody in here saw the Euro 10 days out. While far away, that is one doozy of a storm. MJO effect there?

Another deep south svr wx setup?



Followed by another big -EPO? Kind of like the late December and early January progression.

[Ntxw]

Lala GFS is starting to show, but could be another EPO arctic dump coming it seems to end the old month and start the new.