Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

For the record around 3PM today DFW was 45F and light rain. earlier to midweek GFS had DFW at 65F a Difference of 20 degrees. Average max is 56F so instead of about 10F above normal, the afternoon temps were about 10F below normal . Models have gotten better over the decades...but sometimes conventional forecasting that fronts in January likes to press through from cold source regions wins.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Been looking for MJO help and we may get it! The EURO at 250 hrs, geez, thats a serious block. Me likes.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Been sitting at 32 all afternoon, luckily we've had no real precipitation aside from some really light on and off drizzle.

[wxman57]

For the record around 3PM today DFW was 45F and light rain. earlier to midweek GFS had DFW at 65F a Difference of 20 degrees. Average max is 56F so instead of about 10F above normal, the afternoon temps were about 10F below normal . Models have gotten better over the decades...but sometimes conventional forecasting that fronts in January likes to press through from cold source regions wins.

This worked out great for both of us. You have your winter and I have 80 degree temps.

[weatherdude1108]

77 on car thermometer when I left work. 66 on car thermometer when I arrived home. Front must be in Austin (?).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I love how on the storm app you can clearly see where the front is lol. Storm app on the ipad is similar to wundermap.

[Ntxw]

There's definitely a front in central Texas, SPC surface frontogenesis map



The really shallow low level cold is having a hard time crossing the Ouachita mountains though in east and northeast Texas

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like due to where the HP is situated, a bit more east and not along the rockies, it lines up well with the Ouachita Mountains

[Ntxw]

Looks like due to where the HP is situated, a bit more east and not along the rockies, it lines up well with the Ouachita Mountains

Most of the southeast won't feel a thing either. That southeast ridge holding strong.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I got a 4 letter word for the SE ridge from November through March.....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hate that thing.

[Ntxw]

For fun and stirring up the pot just because

DFW's 500mb pattern for the two biggest footer snowstorms



Houston's 1895 megastorm


Who, if any, will hit the jackpot in the upcoming pattern?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Goodness gracious. Whens the last time we saw a Hudson Block like that? There will be a mean storm rolling through if that pans out.

[JDawg512]

There's definitely a front in central Texas, SPC surface frontogenesis map



The really shallow low level cold is having a hard time crossing the Ouachita mountains though in east and northeast Texas

Good graph to show why an F-0 tornado touched down briefly in Williamson County from a rain shower with no lighting.

Front has stalled. Stayed in the 70s all day here. Was very pleased to see 0.85" of rain fell in my yard. Looking forward to more rain this weekend!

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, the Hudson's bay block if it sets up like indicated, can that be a decent pattern for winter events for some of us? Or will we want to see the mjo actually get into the colder phases or is the HBB part of it?

[northjaxpro]

Hate that thing.

Yeah, the SE Ridge has been and continues to be a seemingly permanent fixture during meteorological winters for over the psst six years now and counting. The positive NAO simply will not go away that is for sure.

It is getting to the point now that what was the average.number of freezes here in Jacksoville was 10- 15 per Fall/Winter season. However, since 2010, we have only averaged around 5 to 7 freezes. So far this current season, I have measured only 4 mornings of freezing temps to this point. That is a very significant deviation from past seasons. We have now gone to barely having any winter at all here across Northern Florida, certainly the peninsula as a whole. There have been no significant freezes to occur across Central and South Florida since 2009-2010 winter season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, im surprised you get that many freezes there. We have had 3 so far in SW Houston.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The Euro is gorgeous

[South Texas Storms]

It's interesting to note that no models indicate snow anywhere in TX with that storm system next weekend. Thicknesses are surely cold enough, but there doesn't appear to be any moisture left to ring out when it moves across the state. Something to monitor over the next several days though as this system will have a lot of energy to work with.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's interesting to note that no models indicate snow anywhere in TX with that storm system next weekend. Thicknesses are surely cold enough, but there doesn't appear to be any moisture left to ring out when it moves across the state. Something to monitor over the next several days though as this system will have a lot of energy to work with.

I'll take my chances with finding moisture as long as there is cold and a storm.