Texas Winter 2016-2017

[srainhoutx]

There are growing indications that a potential SSW/MWW event may develop as we end January and begin February. That coupled with a favorable MJO suggest much colder air and potentially stormier weather arrives across our Region and beyond. Meanwhile watch out for strong to severe thunderstorm development tomorrow across the Permian Basin and portions of Central Texas.

[bubba hotep]

As a global model, the resolution on the GFS isn't high enough to pin down the finer details of a dense shallow arctic air mass at the surface. It has the front in the right area but can't pinpoint it. The higher res NAM and HRRR have done well with pinning down the front. The GFS misses on plenty of things that it is supposed to do well but it isn't really expected to be able to handle this setup locally for DFW.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah actual front position has caused fits in the model world. Sure has been a tricky one to forecast. The warm front will eventually get here with some storms and after that the end of the month cannot get here soon enough. Bring on the pattern change. Nothing but 60's and 70's as far as the eye can see.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of GFS, the guidance is moving towards a -EPO/Aleutian ridging look again after the Hudson block. The low heights storm, if it produces, would likely happen from Jan 22-24th period. Low level cold is lacking but it's worth watching nonetheless as the Pacific jet cuts underneath that block. After that the Alaskan trough retrogrades and the -EPO pops back in and delivers what will probably be another sharp arctic blast.

[bubba hotep]

There are growing indications that a potential SSW/MWW event may develop as we end January and begin February. That coupled with a favorable MJO suggest much colder air and potentially stormier weather arrives across our Region and beyond. Meanwhile watch out for strong to severe thunderstorm development tomorrow across the Permian Basin and portions of Central Texas.

Yeah, changes are coming across the Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/820291081367494656




 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/820290594975035393

[Ntxw]

I believe we have seen that movie before. 3rd sequel? Those 300hr GFS snowstorms might cause us to lose sleep staying up for the euro in the coming week cause it will likely slowly hang around.Maybe by late week we'll get more interest.

[Ntxw]

Right on cue from 12z GFS

DFW



Austin



Maybe even Houston?

[Portastorm]

Model stuff.

[Ntxw]

To add to the Stratosphere narrative

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/820283391971119106

[bubba hotep]

Feels like we go through this every winter. Who knows if it will actually happen and, if it does, what the impacts will ultimately be.

[Ntxw]

We will have the Pacific. I'm hoping at least a strat disruption to keep the AO negative and lock in the cold for a couple of weeks rather than a few days.

[bubba hotep]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The pics you just showed NTx, i imagine thats very similar to what 1895 looked like lol. It shows mostly rain for us but that would be snow for SE Tx. That would change ove rmuch faster than it says, with that said, still so far out.

Someone on twitter said we havent had a SSW for 3 years in winter, is that true? Im excited about the potential of one coming now. Showing on the models thats its happening near Siberia. The polar ice is going to be sooooo low this year. Interesting to see the effects of that later as well.

Back to the hudson block, i honestly think its exactly what we want. Lets see how it plans out. Right now im driving with friends, (yes i know sounds crazy but once you do it, youll always drive it) to Crested Butte on that Friday in less than 2 weeks. I hope it snows a good amount while im there!

[Ntxw]

The pics you just showed NTx, i imagine thats very similar to what 1895 looked like lol. It shows mostly rain for us but that would be snow for SE Tx. That would change ove rmuch faster than it says, with that said, still so far out.

Someone on twitter said we havent had a SSW for 3 years in winter, is that true? Im excited about the potential of one coming now. Showing on the models thats its happening near Siberia. The polar ice is going to be sooooo low this year. Interesting to see the effects of that later as well.

Back to the hudson block, i honestly think its exactly what we want. Lets see how it plans out. Right now im driving with friends, (yes i know sounds crazy but once you do it, youll always drive it) to Crested Butte on that Friday in less than 2 weeks. I hope it snows a good amount while im there!

We haven't had a true SSW or MMW where the strat PV is fully knocked off or split. Winter of 2012-2013. As a result we have not seen any severe winter -AO. We've seen disruptions for short bursts of -AO but nothing major that's lasted more than a week. If you get a the -AO and a cooperative Pacific to bring cold, it will hang around for weeks rather than a strong shot for 2-4 days.

[bubba hotep]

Oh, hello there old friend...

[Brent]

This place will be hopping if the LR GFS verifies... I see 3 storms back to back starting next weekend all that are close.

Oh yeah and I'm off work most of that week...

Soak up your warmth this week heat people...

[dhweather]

Things that do not belong in Winter threads:

From the SPC discussion for tomorrow.




With modest daytime heating and a sufficiently moist low-level
airmass, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg seems probable to develop in the
warm sector Sunday afternoon ahead of the eastward-advancing cold
front. Veering and strengthening winds with height supporting
effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kt per various forecast
soundings suggest any thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the
front will be able to acquire organization, and pose a threat for
isolated large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

[wxman57]

0Z and 6Z GFS have only a light freeze for the norther TX Panhandle over the next 16 days. I think I believe THOSE runs over the runs that had snow down to central Texas. 10-day Euro is similar. Had a nice 48-mile bike ride up to Beck's Prime in The Heights yesterday - in shorts and short sleeves. Cold front stayed about 100 miles to our north.

I know, winter will eventually return to SE TX, but maybe not until February.

[Tireman4]

0Z and 6Z GFS have only a light freeze for the norther TX Panhandle over the next 16 days. I think I believe THOSE runs over the runs that had snow down to central Texas. 10-day Euro is similar. Had a nice 48-mile bike ride up to Beck's Prime in The Heights yesterday - in shorts and short sleeves. Cold front stayed about 100 miles to our north.

I know, winter will eventually return to SE TX, but maybe not until February.

Sigh.

[Portastorm]

0Z and 6Z GFS have only a light freeze for the norther TX Panhandle over the next 16 days. I think I believe THOSE runs over the runs that had snow down to central Texas. 10-day Euro is similar. Had a nice 48-mile bike ride up to Beck's Prime in The Heights yesterday - in shorts and short sleeves. Cold front stayed about 100 miles to our north.

I know, winter will eventually return to SE TX, but maybe not until February.

Given that we (Austin area) are facing not one but two possible periods of severe weather in the next 24 hours, I'm feeling like this is March or April and not January!