Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

those analogs... 1978! -removed- a bit by me for that, January hasn't been like 1978.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: those analogs... 1978! -removed- a bit by me for that, January hasn't been like 1978.

I seem to remember a big ice storm while I was attending A&M in College Station in the late 1970s. However, if we're -removed-, I think February will be like 1986, with many record highs, including an occasional 90+ degree day...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: those analogs... 1978! -removed- a bit by me for that, January hasn't been like 1978.

I seem to remember a big ice storm while I was attending A&M in College Station in the late 1970s. However, if we're -removed-, I think February will be like 1986, with many record highs, including an occasional 90+ degree day...

You will have plenty of warmth sir. Might be a little too cold late this weekend for you in the 60s, maybe just 1 heated blanket

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Havent seen what the MJO is predicting today, it did look favorable but man, that Hudson block sure did disappear from the models. I think thats what we need in the Southern Plains. Watching next week Friday night for weather now. Driving to CO. Two years ago, we drove two days after Amarillo got 15" of snow. More snow in Amarillo then many parts of Colorado till we crossed Monarch Pass! Lol

[orangeblood]

Havent seen what the MJO is predicting today, it did look favorable but man, that Hudson block sure did disappear from the models. I think thats what we need in the Southern Plains. Watching next week Friday night for weather now. Driving to CO. Two years ago, we drove two days after Amarillo got 15" of snow. More snow in Amarillo then many parts of Colorado till we crossed Monarch Pass! Lol

One interesting scenario models have been depicting over the past few days is the Hudson block retrograding west to NW Canada....that's how we'd have a chance to get cold enough for wintry precip this far south (just not enough cold air around at this time even if the Hudson Block held firm). It'd really get interesting, extremely far south, if the NW Canada ridge were to collapse down into the Lower 48 like a few of the GFS members have been showing

[Ntxw]

Havent seen what the MJO is predicting today, it did look favorable but man, that Hudson block sure did disappear from the models. I think thats what we need in the Southern Plains. Watching next week Friday night for weather now. Driving to CO. Two years ago, we drove two days after Amarillo got 15" of snow. More snow in Amarillo then many parts of Colorado till we crossed Monarch Pass! Lol

Block is there, couple of cold core storms the coming week but little surface cold to hold in place. After the second storm passes is when Pacific changes and cold air to work with

[Ntxw]

Kind of a bummer the models show no surface cold with the weekend storm. 5h Heights are very low and you would typically look for this for a major blizzard in the southern plains. It also has a great path. The heights are comparable to the 2009 blizzard, just no cold.

[wxman57]

Snow in Houston January 31st - according to the 12Z GFS 336hr panel. Sure, I believe it. Hey, even snow for Portastorm the panel before (bottom).

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

[Ntxw]

So far this winter Seattle, Portland, and Boise have been the cold winners. Lots of snow and lots of cold in the Pac NW. Some are challenging 50+ year records. Portland has seen snowstorm after snowstorm then ice then more snow. They don't average much sno up there due to Ocean influences but its been one of those winters. They will get a break with +PNA but not before challenging coldest January ever.

[Brent]

So far this winter Seattle, Portland, and Boise have been the cold winners. Lots of snow and lots of cold in the Pac NW. Some are challenging 50+ year records. Portland has seen snowstorm after snowstorm then ice then more snow. They don't average much sno up there due to Ocean influences but its been one of those winters. They will get a break with +PNA but not before challenging coldest January ever.

I was reading an article last night that back in mid November Colorado had a record low snowpack(I remember memes around election time about the lack of snow) and now has near a record high... 75% of the entire season in mid-January... We're talking a few weeks here.

Looks like another big snowstorm is coming early next week too.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2017/01/15/c ... y-january/

[srainhoutx]

Impressive Strat Warming event suggested by the 12Z GEFS. There are growing indications that a legitimate wind reversal may occur as the Stratospheric Polar Vortex splits and is vanished as January ends and February begins. The coldest air if the GEFS is correct, will be across the United States almost Coast to Coast. Look out below.

[Ntxw]

Impressive Strat Warming event suggested by the 12Z GEFS. There are growing indications that a legitimate wind reversal may occur as the Stratospheric Polar Vortex splits and is vanished as January ends and February begins. The coldest air if the GEFS is correct, will be across the United States almost Coast to Coast. Look out below.

The Pacific will be favorable for dumping Siberian air during this period. Euro group also bullish on the warming

[Ntxw]

GEFS is really good. Ridging is near and off the west coast, lagging low heights in the southwest, plains and east trough. North America is cold.

[Portastorm]

It may not be sleeting or snowing here in Austin today, but with temps around 50, a decent northeast breeze, and scattered rains ... it feels "wintery."

[orangeblood]

GEFS is really good. Ridging is near and off the west coast, lagging low heights in the southwest, plains and east trough. North America is cold.

Yep, couldn't have sketched it up much better than that....

[wxman57]

It's a good thing we can't trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days...

[Tireman4]

It's a good thing we can't trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days...

Oh I do..Nails sir. Nails...Oh wait, it is 60 outside...yea!!

[Golf7070]

Impressive Strat Warming event suggested by the 12Z GEFS. There are growing indications that a legitimate wind reversal may occur as the Stratospheric Polar Vortex splits and is vanished as January ends and February begins. The coldest air if the GEFS is correct, will be across the United States almost Coast to Coast. Look out below.

Srain, I have a question. Anyone can answer it. The euro ensembles show a full displacement. Do we want a split or a displacement or can we have both? Which one looks most realistic and better for us?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Kind of a bummer the models show no surface cold with the weekend storm. 5h Heights are very low and you would typically look for this for a major blizzard in the southern plains. It also has a great path. The heights are comparable to the 2009 blizzard, just no cold.

Man that storm is a beauty for that kind of scenario, youre right. 990 MB low coming out of the southern rockies screams blizzard. Unfortunately, are we going to have a bad severe weather threat?

Also in response to the snow in the NW, always wondered how the cold air crossed the rockies there. One of the mets on the weather channel said that the cold/dene air runs through the valley of the Columbia river and spills into the region. Thats why 2 storms ago it was snowing in Portland and slightly above freezing in Seattle. Never though of that. Weatherunderground every evening has some great Met discussions on there. I have two little brothers who love the weather and i tell them to watch that show as often as they can or look at the videos in the storm app.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can we push back this Strat warming event and +PNA for like 6 days? I need to see some snow fall in Colorado!