Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Tireman4]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

The ECMWF continues to forecast a large area of wind gusts 45-55 mph across southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon due to the strong pressure gradient southwest of the low center. Strongest winds are over southern Montgomery and NE Harris County, were speeds are forecast to near 60mph. See the EC wind forecast below for 3pm Sunday. I contoured every 2 mph.

We could see power outages with this...maybe

[wxman57]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

The ECMWF continues to forecast a large area of wind gusts 45-55 mph across southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon due to the strong pressure gradient southwest of the low center. Strongest winds are over southern Montgomery and NE Harris County, were speeds are forecast to near 60mph. See the EC wind forecast below for 3pm Sunday. I contoured every 2 mph.

We could see power outages with this...maybe

Definitely. CenterPoint and Entergy are aware of the potential strong winds on Sunday. Peak winds will be from about 10am to 5pm Sunday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I hope I haven't jinxed us all by cutting more firewood yesterday.

Nah, don't worry about it. The wood will keep for years and years. Maybe winter will return one year, you never know.

This is Texas after all. More left over wood just means more briskets I'll have to cook. What a shame..

[Ntxw]

300hr gfs -EPO 570+dm 5h ridge over Alaska alert. Seen that before.

[gboudx]

The cold-mongerer in the cubicle next to me (my friend of nearly 30 yrs) is saying winter will return in early February. However, he's relying heavily on the long-range model forecasts of SSW and a pattern change. I'm skeptical that the long-range models have it right. Sure, we may see temps closer to normal, but I'm not seeing any big return to winter weather across Texas - yet.

It would be awesome if he joined here to be the ying to your yang.

[Ntxw]

That SSW is looking more impressive by the day. Wind reversal perhaps? From above climo winds (strong vortex) to much below normal. Might be more than just disturbing the vortex. MMW?

[Tireman4]

The cold-mongerer in the cubicle next to me (my friend of nearly 30 yrs) is saying winter will return in early February. However, he's relying heavily on the long-range model forecasts of SSW and a pattern change. I'm skeptical that the long-range models have it right. Sure, we may see temps closer to normal, but I'm not seeing any big return to winter weather across Texas - yet.

It would be awesome if he joined here to be the ying to your yang.

I sent a smoke signal to him. I will keep trying.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z EC forecast of peak wind gusts (mph) across SE TX at 3pm Sunday. I plotted only 45 mph or greater in 1 mph increments. Not quite as strong as the 00Z, but still a large area of 45-50 mph gusts. Sustained winds 25-30 mph.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Excited to see some wind gusts on the weather station if thats the case. 992 MB low just north of us will be exciting, at least it wont be crazy cold with it, that would be brutal! Looks like the low turns into a decent NorEaster after it passes, seems like its been a while since they have had one.


That SSW event looks INTENSE on the GFS, again until we start seeing the warming at 10 MB then it will be tough to narrow down when it will happen. My vote is we get hit with cold around Feb 9th or so. Will come a bit later than what the GFS is saying.

[wxman57]

Do we get to vote on whether we get hit by cold?

[Portastorm]

Do we get to vote on whether we get hit by cold?

I miss the old avatar bets we used to have around here ... of course, I usually lost those so maybe I don't miss them THAT much.

[wxman57]

Do we get to vote on whether we get hit by cold?

I miss the old avatar bets we used to have around here ... of course, I usually lost those so maybe I don't miss them THAT much.

Well, think up one of your cold-mongering bets. I still have some alternate avatars...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If SSW event plays out as forecast, i think the cold is coming.

With temps in Alaska plummeting to where they are now, is that a possible reason as to why the SSW is occurring or why models are seeing it? Dense cold air lowering the heights so much the Stratosphere is effected?

[Portastorm]

Do we get to vote on whether we get hit by cold?

I miss the old avatar bets we used to have around here ... of course, I usually lost those so maybe I don't miss them THAT much.

Well, think up one of your cold-mongering bets. I still have some alternate avatars...

The problem is I'm not sure I want to bet against you!

While I am hopeful for a nice wintry spell in February, I am skeptical it will happen. That's what six consecutive years of no snow or sleet will do to you.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I miss the old avatar bets we used to have around here ... of course, I usually lost those so maybe I don't miss them THAT much.

Well, think up one of your cold-mongering bets. I still have some alternate avatars...

The problem is I'm not sure I want to bet against you!

While I am hopeful for a nice wintry spell in February, I am skeptical it will happen. That's what six consecutive years of no snow or sleet will do to you.

He said "vote" not "bet" in his original post. And if we stick to voting, I'm almost certain he would lose.

[Ralph's Weather]

Clouds took until now to beak up here in Tyler so our high was in the 50s vs the forecast of near 70. BTW my rain gauge shows 7" this month.

[orangeblood]

That SSW is looking more impressive by the day. Wind reversal perhaps? From above climo winds (strong vortex) to much below normal. Might be more than just disturbing the vortex. MMW?

Yep, it appears to be the real deal...if projected in the right location, can have the potential to create severe Arctic Outbreaks across the lower 48. My understanding of SSW is it expands the stratosphere, in turn compressing the troposphere building massive cold pockets of air near the surface. This potential continues to show up in the low range GFS - 1059 HP across Wyoming Day 12-13

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is how you can get below normal and stay cold for a good duration. +pna hand off to -EPO

[bubba hotep]

Both the Euro EPS and GEFS are indicating that the +PNA will be short lived and then things will warm up as the pattern retrogrades. Then WCAN starts to load with cold anomalies and then there should be a discharge. Will it be another big positive tilted La Ninaish trough or a more MJO influenced active period with cold shots?

[Ntxw]

Both the Euro EPS and GEFS are indicating that the +PNA will be short lived and then things will warm up as the pattern retrogrades. Then WCAN starts to load with cold anomalies and then there should be a discharge. Will it be another big positive tilted La Ninaish trough or a more MJO influenced active period with cold shots?

A lot will ride on if the stratosphere can flip the AO negative. Would be great if we can dislodge the EPO then lock it in.