Florida Weather

[NDG]

Raw weekend indeed, if cloud cover stays through the day Sunday I would not be surprised if temps never get to above the mid 50s across most of central FL, especially if temps Sunday morning start in the 40s with precipitation. No freeze for the I-4 corridor but could be rather frosty in most spots as high pressure center comes over the FL Peninsula with clear skies for Monday night. Bad timing for the pro-bowl here in Orlando Sunday evening, it will feel like the north pole compared to Hawaii.

[psyclone]

Nothing brings on garbage weather like Gasparilla (naturally this weekend) and the Florida state fair. Having said that, considering the calendar and the return to warmer temps showing in the extended...the odds that we escape this Winter without a freeze in the central/southern peninsula are beginning to accelerate.

[TheStormExpert]

Hope everyone enjoys this years Week of Winter in Florida!

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't bet that much above normal temperatures return for at least another week. PNA forecast positive was a fantastic tool about a week ago to show temperature changes in Florida. +PNA will weaken but won't likely be negative. It will be a little while still for warmth to return.



But the NAO will fight it going very positive. We'll see which wins.

[psyclone]

we should be close to normal (70 for the high in Tampa) by midweek. I'm just trying to run the clock out on the freeze season.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. This is about as raw as we will likely have peninsula-wide this winter as what we have currently. We have a mid-upper level disturbance, which moved out of the GOM, and is just now beginning the move away from the peninsula this morning. This has bought clouds and rain across much of Central and South Florida. The clouds and rain are keeping temperatures way down right now. Temps are in the low-mid 40s across North Florida, and are only in the upper 40s to the low 50s all the way down to South Florida at this 9:00 a.m. hour. A cool air mass has settled across the region. Temps only warm to around 60 - 65 degrees most areas of the state by late this afternoon.


This is about as cool as we will see this winter, and this is not saying much, considering how warm it has been this winter, unless we get some unexpected blast of cold air later in February. The upper level disturbance will keep temps down today. The disturbance will move off off the peninsula later today and we should see the rain and the clouds move away as a cool dome of High Pressure builds back into the peninsula. A reinforcement of a bit more cooler and drier airmass will come in for the peninsula through Tuesday. Looks like there is a chance we may see a light freeze across interior areas of North Florida and also frost by Tuesday morning .

[northjaxpro]

I wouldn't bet that much above normal temperatures return for at least another week. PNA forecast positive was a fantastic tool about a week ago to show temperature changes in Florida. +PNA will weaken but won't likely be negative. It will be a little while still for warmth to return.



But the NAO will fight it going very positive.]

Yeah, I definitely do not see record high temps, which we have seen for much of this meteorological winter season, to happen around here at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days from now. I will gladly take average temps for the time being here at the end of January/beginning of February, which is minimum upper 40s max upper 60s.

[NDG]

Yeap, very cold day for central & southern FL standards this morning through the rest of the day. I really doubt we here in Orlando will get out of the 50s the only way it will be if the clouds thin out enough later this afternoon before sunset, but one place that rain and cloud cover will stay through the rest of the day is south FL so I do not see Miami getting out of the 50s all day long like forecasted by the HRRR, a perfect day to get your boots and leather jackets out today

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG I agree with you. I was looking at radar and satellite imagery and there is a large shield of light rain all across South Florida. I don't think clouds will thin out enough late today down there. It definitely appears the mercury will not top 60 degrees down there today.

This was a rather healthy mid-upper level shortwave moving across the state.

[TheStormExpert]

Well I am 99.9% sure that today will probably be the coldest day of the season for Central and South Florida thanks to abundant Cloud Cover along with precipitation. Today really reminds me of that wet and dreary cold day we had back in early January 2010 where Snowflakes were reported all the way down here in West Palm Beach by later that evening! Even though temperatures that day remained in the lower 40's for my locale today has to be the first day similar to that since that occurrence.



Talk about an 180° pattern flip within the past week! From a Semi-Pernament West Coast trough with strong Ridging in the East and SE U.S. to now a clearly able to be seen deep trough digging itself into the Eastern U.S. on Satellite. Guess that Semi-Pernament East Coast trough is history for now as been the case since late last Spring/Early last Summer.

[psyclone]

This miserable weather is a good reminder of just how spoiled we've been lately. Could you imagine spending good money on a vacation to get this? Even those that headed to south Florida got hosed. Better times are ahead as temps moderate. It looks like a stretch of great weather is in store starting by midweek and the averages start to climb about 1 degree per week beginning in Feb around these parts.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well I am 99.9% sure that today will probably be the coldest day of the season for Central and South Florida thanks to abundant Cloud Cover along with precipitation. Today really reminds me of that wet and dreary cold day we had back in early January 2010 where Snowflakes were reported all the way down here in West Palm Beach by later that evening! Even though temperatures that day remained in the lower 40's for my locale today has to be the first day similar to that since that occurrence.



Talk about an 180° pattern flip within the past week! From a Semi-Pernament West Coast trough with strong Ridging in the East and SE U.S. to now a clearly able to be seen deep trough digging itself into the Eastern U.S. on Satellite. Guess that Semi-Pernament East Coast trough is history for now as been the case since late last Spring/Early last Summer.

I was thinking about this. It is literally the same pattern that brought us snow that day, just warmer.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep! Just like I said above the weather pattern has made a complete 180° flip to what is usually expected in an El Niño Winter.

With that long lived(for FL standards) EF-1 Tornado early last Monday Morning tracking from Mirasol in Palm Beach Gardens to Juno Beach and the Juno Pier just feet away from where I work!

I'd say January has become an active weather month for many in Florida.

[gatorcane]

The CMC not backing down on widespread 30s for Florida and freeze into interior Cental Florida...48 hours below

[psyclone]

NWS has upper 30's with patchy frost in the Lakeland-Plant city area for that timeframe...but much milder mid to upper 40's for the metro areas to the west. CMC is likely way too cold as usual but a chilly night is in store.

[NDG]

Like a mentioned a few days ago, with high pressure center moving right over the Peninsula Monday night I see a cold night across most of the interior areas of central FL where I see temps falling into the upper 30s in most interior areas with mid 30s along the usual colder spots, with dewpoints in the same range along with calm winds & clear skies calls for a perfect formation for frost but I do not see temps as low as the Canadian model is calling for, it is usually cold biased.

[NDG]

BTW, if Miami's daytime high stays in the 50s today this will be their coldest daytime high since January 3 2012 when the high was only 57 degrees.

[gatorcane]

Even at 24 hours, the CMC still thinks 30sF will be widespread across the peninsula:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even at 24 hours, the CMC still thinks 30sF will be widespread across the peninsula:

lol. Unless the sky is clear as can be, it won't be that dramatic IMO

[gatorcane]

The CMC does usually have a cold BIAS but I am not used to seeing such a bias within 24 hours. The last cold front we saw, the CMC was quite a bit colder for my locale than the GFS and ECMWF and it did turn out that it goes about 7-8F degrees colder than the NWS forecasted though not as cold as the CMC. I recall the NWS had to pretty significant drop the temps for their evening update that night. That was a pretty significant bust by those normally reliable models. Check out the dewpoints and there are no clouds to see over most of the peninsula at this hour.