Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

80 degrees at DFW again today

Is it time to move to the spring thread yet???

HOW DARE YOU SAY SUCH WORDS!!! IT'S NOT SPRING UNTIL APRIL 1ST!!! That's when I start wearing shorts and give my legs some sun. My legs aren't pale enough to blind you yet...

Lol I broke out the shorts today... actually I never put them away.

I'm hoping for a February surprise too but I've also started to look beyond it.

[Ntxw]

I'm just glad we have again a good 500mb look for an arctic blast. Just yesterday and before it was looking awful. Could be case where models had 300hrs out, lost, and is coming back. Bubba's Feb 7-10th dislodge frame looks good to me.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with this massive trough, looks deeper than the 12Z so far...

[GalvestonWXGeek]

This thread is either busted or there is some seriously warm weather on the horizon.

ETA: I see its not busted.

[wxman57]

Compare with the 18Z GFS image above. Tremendous variability run-to-run. Overnight runs delay next week's front and have it much weaker.

[Ntxw]

Models are back to +PNA sliding it east

[wxman57]

Models are back to +PNA sliding it east

Just can't trust the models beyond 2-3 days - unless they're forecasting warmth, that is.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter needs to decide if it wants to show itself again or not. I pulled the tractor out and plowed up the garden yesterday, and with seed catalogs coming in the mail paired with warm weather im starting to get in the spring mindset.

[Ntxw]

Models are back to +PNA sliding it east

Just can't trust the models beyond 2-3 days - unless they're forecasting warmth, that is.

I'm tired of the el nino like PNA. Two winters of it destructively interfering is enough! If not for the mountain cedar count high on warm days with a S/SW wind I'd be ready to embrace warmth with you. Aside from late Feb/March 2015 -PNA and the -PNA cold dumps in Dec and Jan, the +PNA has been god awful since 2014

I have a lot of looking back to do on El Nino and La Nina patterns. Anecdotal misconceptions of the two patterns from past needs to be corrected. Real, true atmospheric El Nino patterns brings rains, at the same time it also brings warmth, unless there is a countering cold mechanism such as the AO.

[Portastorm]

Here is the story from Austin for January 2017, courtesy of LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose who just tweeted these:

upload pic

Winter ... ppfffff ....

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has D-FW down to the mid 30s next Friday (Houston in the upper 30s). Temperature warms up by 20 degrees by Saturday, though, with onshore flow returning very fast after Thursday's front.

[wxman57]

Have I mentioned that I love the CFSv2 forecasts lately? Maybe that elusive 90 degree day will happen here this month...

[Brent]

well winter was fun.

[wxman57]

I almost felt guilty by posting that CFSv2 forecast, above. Not quite, though...

I just don't see the current pattern being broken in February. We could still get another strong cold front over the next 4-5 weeks, possibly dropping temps to freezing in Houston. As for any ice - that's quite unlikely in Houston, and only a slight chance up in the D-FW area.

[bubba hotep]

The coming "cool" snap next week looks to be from a glancing blow as would be expected goven the current MJO. The MJO timing really couldn't have been worse for Texas. There is still some hope that late Feb or early March sees a more favorable setup across the Pacific. The worst part of this is that the +PNA is also keeping N. Texas dry. Warm and dry is no way to run a winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

January 2017 was an above normal month at DFW Airport, the 5th in a row since summer 2016. However, over 4 inches of rain was recorded making it the 10th wettest January on record.


January was a busy weather month. It started off stormy then we had two Arctic cold fronts that brought some of the coldest weather that some places have seen in the last 6 years. The biggest event of the month occurred on January 15th when supercell thunderstorms produced 6 tornadoes. One of which was an EF-2 that moved from Coryell City to Mosheim (Coryell and Bosque Counties respectively). Three other tornadoes were EF-1s (Lake Whitney, Clifton and Mexia).

[Portastorm]

This is a freakin' nightmare which is never-ending ...

screen grab

image uploader

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Sounds like it's time to post it...

WINTER CANCEL!

[wxman57]

I can promise you (Portastorm) that this winter nightmare (for you) IS going to end. I'm thinking around the third or fourth week of December...

By the way, what happened to your snow miser avatar?

[JDawg512]

I had to turn on my sprinklers overnight so as to wet the top layer. Cold or no cold, it's time to start searching for some good rain events this month because right now it's not looking good.