Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Golf7070]

This friend of mine Isotherm on American weather sent me this just now. Obviously this is his opinion :
Hi Kevin, if you saw my posts over the past week or so, my confidence has been increasing on the first genuine -NAO/AO period of the winter. I am liking Feb 15th-early March for high latitude blocking. The strat vortex is undergoing fairly strong attacks, and MJO propagation will provide support by mid month. Overall, it is the most interested I've been in a pattern so far this winter. Feb 15th onward should transition negative AO/NAO in my opinion w/ the development of eastern US trough. We will see. Whether that produces a big storm or not remains to be seen.

[wxman57]

One problem that I see with these long-range forecasts is that they're made by the same models that cannot predict the surface or upper-air pattern out to 7 days well. The very fast zonal flow makes it very hard for cold air to build in Canada, and even harder for it to be driven south to Texas. Models have been trying to forecast a big change for weeks. About 3 weeks ago, late January/early February was when the big Arctic blast would come on down. Well, that didn't happen.

It is just past mid-winter, and we certainly could see some very cold air move south into Texas before mid-March. I wouldn't bet money on it, though.

P.S.
The groundhog just saw his shadow. His prediction can't be any worse than the computer models have been.

[Portastorm]

The Groundhog saw his shadow meaning six more weeks of winter. For us in Texas, that means six more weeks of faux spring. Break out the shorts and tee-shirts if you haven't already.

p.s. wxman57, I'll have a new avatar later today just for you.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'll have a new avatar later today just for you.

Groundhog on a beach?

[Tireman4]

I'll have a new avatar later today just for you.

Groundhog on a beach?

Nope a Grey Goose truck with all of the wheels gone

[Yukon Cornelius]

Actually feels pretty chilly outside this morning. Made it down to 30 with a windchill in the teens.

[Ntxw]

Mid 40s right now with breezy north winds, drizzly and high's hovering about where they are. Now this is what I'm talking about!

[wxman57]

Upper 60s, light south wind, and fog here. I'm wondering how we can have 6 more weeks of winter. Don't we have to have 6 weeks of winter first? Come to think of it, I've never seen a definition of what "winter" means to the groundhog.

[Ntxw]

For you MJO folks there indeed is a big amplification of it about to go on. I'm actually more interested in what it could do to ENSO, Cattle prod to push warm waters for any possible coming El Nino. Assuming it generates a significant WWB once it nears the dateline, could push the thermocline slope into the early stages of a + event. I'd start to look for a possible subtropical jet the second half of February from the tropical Pacific forcing.

AO is fairly confident to go negative now which is helpful. Lets hope the Pacific plays friendly with shorter wavelengths. SSW is working in terms of forcing the AO. It will be negative by week 2

[Theepicman116]

For you MJO folks there indeed is a big amplification of it about to go on. I'm actually more interested in what it could do to ENSO, Cattle prod to push warm waters for any possible coming El Nino. Assuming it generates a significant WWB once it nears the dateline, could push the thermocline slope into the early stages of a + event. I'd start to look for a possible subtropical jet the second half of February from the tropical Pacific forcing.

AO is fairly confident to go negative now which is helpful. Lets hope the Pacific plays friendly with shorter wavelengths. SSW is working in terms of forcing the AO. It will be negative by week 2

http://i64.tinypic.com/2pqtaab.gif

http://i67.tinypic.com/2qk8b2q.png

So what I'm seeing is that we'll take a dive temperature wise by February?

Pete Delkus 10 day forecast has it 56 next Friday (the 10th) and 61 the 11th (that Saturday). It is 10 days out though......

[Tireman4]

Upper 60s, light south wind, and fog here. I'm wondering how we can have 6 more weeks of winter. Don't we have to have 6 weeks of winter first? Come to think of it, I've never seen a definition of what "winter" means to the groundhog.

Now, the Grey Goose truck has been repossessed by the Heat Miser. Sigh. I am just sobbing now. The sighing is gone.

[Brent]

I'm firing the groundhog.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS run is not particularly warm or cold for Houston. Next week's cold front is delayed until Thursday afternoon (was Wednesday). Not much precip.

[weatherdude1108]

I know you are a busy man, but would you mind making a meteogram for Austin? Thank you sir.

[wxman57]

I know you are a busy man, but would you mind making a meteogram for Austin? Thank you sir.

Here you go. It's not so pretty for winter weather lovers. Warmer than Houston. Very dry, too.

[Brent]

Euro is very boring too, no sign of any cold air through 240 after this current one(which doesn't even have a low below 40 at DFW, not exactly newsworthy). Plenty of 70s and not much rain either...

[wxman57]

Updated CFSv2 forecast for mid to late February isn't pretty if you like cold weather. I don't think Punxsutawney Phil used this map:

[gpsnowman]

This is a family thread so I will keep this clean. Those maps look like an international pile of chocolate ice cream soiling winter hopes. This is getting absurd and anomalous. What the heck has happened to our winters? Yeah its been only two years since DFW has some real winter fun but two years in a row is just downright cruel. But next year will be three years unless a small winter miracle happens. Too many ties in Texas to move so living with this unfortunate trend of blank winters must continue. I am seriously considering a road trip in February to see some snow. Can't afford it but I don't care. Snow is an addiction and I need help. I need a professional weather psychologist to help.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

After the Winters of 07-14, we were due a warm streak. Some of you have short memories regarding how cold the last 10 years were "winter wise"....

The 90s and 30s were much worse than this on a decade scale. We are also entering a solar minimum if you believe what's been published. That will aid our chances at a cooler than normal Winter 17/18 thru 20.

[JDawg512]

For you MJO folks there indeed is a big amplification of it about to go on. I'm actually more interested in what it could do to ENSO, Cattle prod to push warm waters for any possible coming El Nino. Assuming it generates a significant WWB once it nears the dateline, could push the thermocline slope into the early stages of a + event. I'd start to look for a possible subtropical jet the second half of February from the tropical Pacific forcing.

AO is fairly confident to go negative now which is helpful. Lets hope the Pacific plays friendly with shorter wavelengths. SSW is working in terms of forcing the AO. It will be negative by week 2

I agree that the last half of Feb after the 15 looks better for rainfall at least. Temps are only a secondary focus for me, you and the others have better info in that department.

It's a fairly typical winter day today and it looks like the next couple of days should be around average. At least it's better than what we've been dealing with.