Texas Winter 2016-2017
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3269
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
At least we are in a winter like few days right now with highs around 50 and drizzle through Saturday.
0 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
wxman57 wrote:Upper 60s, light south wind, and fog here. I'm wondering how we can have 6 more weeks of winter. Don't we have to have 6 weeks of winter first? Come to think of it, I've never seen a definition of what "winter" means to the groundhog.
I think it means they want to sleep another six weeks before starting yard work.
I can get behind that.
0 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
The 12z Euro EPS is even uglier than the 12z GEFS (below) with the jet extending all the way to Cali...

As pointed out earlier today in the thread, there is good agreement that the MJO will amp up as it moves towards Phase 8. Research does show some decent correlation b/w the MJO moving through 6 - 8 and an increasing +PNA. Kind of a "Ninoish" look, Phase 8 +PNA with extended jet is a classic winter time setup for flooding western NA with warm Pacific air.

Less certain, but there are some ties b/w that movement and -AO, so the -AO may actually materialize this go round. So basically, it looks like kind of a crappy pattern for mid month. Then factor in lag times for recovery and it could be the end of February before any pattern change can impact N. Texas wx.

As pointed out earlier today in the thread, there is good agreement that the MJO will amp up as it moves towards Phase 8. Research does show some decent correlation b/w the MJO moving through 6 - 8 and an increasing +PNA. Kind of a "Ninoish" look, Phase 8 +PNA with extended jet is a classic winter time setup for flooding western NA with warm Pacific air.

Less certain, but there are some ties b/w that movement and -AO, so the -AO may actually materialize this go round. So basically, it looks like kind of a crappy pattern for mid month. Then factor in lag times for recovery and it could be the end of February before any pattern change can impact N. Texas wx.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Wow... new Euro Weeklies look like the scary CFS maps posted earlier today.


0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook. 
Can we move to the spring thread early?
I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..

Can we move to the spring thread early?
I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..
0 likes
#neversummer
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook.
Can we move to the spring thread early?
I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze...
Hopefully, we get one last chance during the last week of Feb or first of March. It is basically written in stone that the next 14 - 18 days are wasted...
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1798
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook.
Can we move to the spring thread early?
I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..
Worse than depressing.
0 likes
#neversummer
- cctxhurricanewatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1206
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
- Location: Corpus Christi, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook.
Can we move to the spring thread early?
I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..
Might as well skip the spring thread and start the summer one with that model run.

0 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
The 00z Euro EPS had more days above 75 than below freezing at DFW over the next two weeks (hint: it has zero days below freezing).
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Been gone for a while! Not liking what im seeing in the future. Expecting some snow showers tonight and tomorrow morning here in Crested Butte. Never seen so much snow on the ground in my life here. Skiing has been great.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
latest GFS run looks pretty dismal for any winter hopes for Texans. Looks like a couple of glancing blows of cold but most of the time is well above normal.
0 likes
- TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Bwahahaha instead of getting snow this upcoming week I might be getting Severe weather 

0 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
This is just brutal and it's going to get worse if the PNA forecasts holds. The western ridge flexes and almost summer-like heights. Floods Canada with warmth and what cold there is, aims for east of the Mississippi...go to Florida if you want cool.

Lets hope the -AO can counter it.

Lets hope the -AO can counter it.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
On more positive note CFSv2 is getting a little more bullish on perhaps the beginnings of El Nino. Has us approaching by late spring. This would be good for spring rains and continue the very good stretch the past couple of years with the +PDO well coupled. I would still like to see a real WWB cross the dateline late this month or in March to be more certain. At depth 1-2C positive anomalies exist below the dateline and should that push eastward with a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave, 2-4C would show up if there were to be an El Nino. Unprecedented given we just experienced a Super Nino.

Part of the reason this winter failed, could be attributed to the fact that the SST's and atmosphere much of the time in the North Pacific was resembled like an El Nino with short bouts of Nina looks. The cold pool stretching from Japan to south of Alaska is +PDO/El Nino Aleutian low was very similar to 2015/2016 enso event. Possibly the same forcing might thrust us into the next Nino.



Part of the reason this winter failed, could be attributed to the fact that the SST's and atmosphere much of the time in the North Pacific was resembled like an El Nino with short bouts of Nina looks. The cold pool stretching from Japan to south of Alaska is +PDO/El Nino Aleutian low was very similar to 2015/2016 enso event. Possibly the same forcing might thrust us into the next Nino.


1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Ntxw wrote:This is just brutal and it's going to get worse if the PNA forecasts holds. The western ridge flexes and almost summer-like heights. Floods Canada with warmth and what cold there is, aims for east of the Mississippi...go to Florida if you want cool.
http://i64.tinypic.com/vy31ix.png
Lets hope the -AO can counter it.
It is probably all but locked in with the models showing a strong signal for the MJO to move into Phase 8. The frustrating thing is that models are showing potential for a -AO/NAO around Feb 10th. If the MJO would've waited to get going this could've been a totally different story with the Pacific looking like a classic jet retraction setup a couple of weeks back before the MJO really got cranking. Incoherent MJO and this could've been an -EPO, -PNA blast with blocking to hold the cold in place. Curse you MJO! However, it probably signals the end of nina and the beginning of the transition to nino. That should increase our chances of a wet spring. Then weak nino & -QBO has been a good combo in DFW in recent memory giving us hope for next winter.
Last edited by bubba hotep on Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Stormcenter wrote:Maybe it will turn out to be a cool (mid-upper 80's) Summer.
Do those even exist anymore lol
Wishful thinking but I'm just being realistic
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Brent wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Maybe it will turn out to be a cool (mid-upper 80's) Summer.
Do those even exist anymore lol
Wishful thinking but I'm just being realistic
Yeah those don't exist in Texas. It's upper 80s in May, then 90s in June through September with spurts of 100s. Anything less is a miracle, once in a quarter century type event.
I requested records of July 1905 from NCDC which is one of the most unusually cool summer months for Dallas. Still quite hot overall. Was very wet though with over 10" of rain!

3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1477
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
We have very few days below 90 during June, July and August. If we do it is because of an extended amount of rain. The last summer (that I can recall) where there was a ton of consistent summer rain and days below 90 was the Summer of 2007.
If the sun is out during those months, you can fughedaboudit!
If the sun is out during those months, you can fughedaboudit!
0 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
Six years ago this evening (Feb 2011) just before the Superbowl there was chatter in the air by Portastorm of Snow Grains in his back yard. The next morning DFW would wake up to 3-6" of fluffy powdery snow that fell overnight in the teens.
Relive the Superbowl outbreak here
Relive the Superbowl outbreak here
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests