Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4321 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:20 pm

At least we are in a winter like few days right now with highs around 50 and drizzle through Saturday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4322 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:Upper 60s, light south wind, and fog here. I'm wondering how we can have 6 more weeks of winter. Don't we have to have 6 weeks of winter first? Come to think of it, I've never seen a definition of what "winter" means to the groundhog.


I think it means they want to sleep another six weeks before starting yard work.

I can get behind that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4323 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:11 pm

The 12z Euro EPS is even uglier than the 12z GEFS (below) with the jet extending all the way to Cali...

Image

As pointed out earlier today in the thread, there is good agreement that the MJO will amp up as it moves towards Phase 8. Research does show some decent correlation b/w the MJO moving through 6 - 8 and an increasing +PNA. Kind of a "Ninoish" look, Phase 8 +PNA with extended jet is a classic winter time setup for flooding western NA with warm Pacific air.

Image

Less certain, but there are some ties b/w that movement and -AO, so the -AO may actually materialize this go round. So basically, it looks like kind of a crappy pattern for mid month. Then factor in lag times for recovery and it could be the end of February before any pattern change can impact N. Texas wx.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4324 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:14 pm

Wow... new Euro Weeklies look like the scary CFS maps posted earlier today.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4325 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:32 pm

The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook. :eek:

Can we move to the spring thread early?

I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4326 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:45 pm

Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook. :eek:

Can we move to the spring thread early?

I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze...


Hopefully, we get one last chance during the last week of Feb or first of March. It is basically written in stone that the next 14 - 18 days are wasted...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4327 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:38 pm

Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook. :eek:

Can we move to the spring thread early?

I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..

Worse than depressing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4328 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:52 am

Brent wrote:The 222-hour Euro has 100s in SW Texas and 90s out towards Abilene. I only saw it because someone put it on Facebook. :eek:

Can we move to the spring thread early?

I'm starting to seriously wonder if DFW will even have another good freeze(like below 27 degrees)..


Might as well skip the spring thread and start the summer one with that model run. :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4329 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:05 am

The 00z Euro EPS had more days above 75 than below freezing at DFW over the next two weeks (hint: it has zero days below freezing).
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4330 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:28 am

Been gone for a while! Not liking what im seeing in the future. Expecting some snow showers tonight and tomorrow morning here in Crested Butte. Never seen so much snow on the ground in my life here. Skiing has been great.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4331 Postby gatorcane » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:33 pm

latest GFS run looks pretty dismal for any winter hopes for Texans. Looks like a couple of glancing blows of cold but most of the time is well above normal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4332 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:08 pm

Bwahahaha instead of getting snow this upcoming week I might be getting Severe weather :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4333 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:17 pm

This is just brutal and it's going to get worse if the PNA forecasts holds. The western ridge flexes and almost summer-like heights. Floods Canada with warmth and what cold there is, aims for east of the Mississippi...go to Florida if you want cool.

Image

Lets hope the -AO can counter it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4334 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:58 pm

On more positive note CFSv2 is getting a little more bullish on perhaps the beginnings of El Nino. Has us approaching by late spring. This would be good for spring rains and continue the very good stretch the past couple of years with the +PDO well coupled. I would still like to see a real WWB cross the dateline late this month or in March to be more certain. At depth 1-2C positive anomalies exist below the dateline and should that push eastward with a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave, 2-4C would show up if there were to be an El Nino. Unprecedented given we just experienced a Super Nino.

Image

Part of the reason this winter failed, could be attributed to the fact that the SST's and atmosphere much of the time in the North Pacific was resembled like an El Nino with short bouts of Nina looks. The cold pool stretching from Japan to south of Alaska is +PDO/El Nino Aleutian low was very similar to 2015/2016 enso event. Possibly the same forcing might thrust us into the next Nino.

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4335 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:This is just brutal and it's going to get worse if the PNA forecasts holds. The western ridge flexes and almost summer-like heights. Floods Canada with warmth and what cold there is, aims for east of the Mississippi...go to Florida if you want cool.

http://i64.tinypic.com/vy31ix.png

Lets hope the -AO can counter it.


It is probably all but locked in with the models showing a strong signal for the MJO to move into Phase 8. The frustrating thing is that models are showing potential for a -AO/NAO around Feb 10th. If the MJO would've waited to get going this could've been a totally different story with the Pacific looking like a classic jet retraction setup a couple of weeks back before the MJO really got cranking. Incoherent MJO and this could've been an -EPO, -PNA blast with blocking to hold the cold in place. Curse you MJO! However, it probably signals the end of nina and the beginning of the transition to nino. That should increase our chances of a wet spring. Then weak nino & -QBO has been a good combo in DFW in recent memory giving us hope for next winter.
Last edited by bubba hotep on Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4336 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:27 pm

Maybe it will turn out to be a cool (mid-upper 80's) Summer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4337 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Maybe it will turn out to be a cool (mid-upper 80's) Summer.


Do those even exist anymore lol

Wishful thinking but I'm just being realistic
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4338 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:23 pm

Brent wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Maybe it will turn out to be a cool (mid-upper 80's) Summer.


Do those even exist anymore lol

Wishful thinking but I'm just being realistic


Yeah those don't exist in Texas. It's upper 80s in May, then 90s in June through September with spurts of 100s. Anything less is a miracle, once in a quarter century type event.

I requested records of July 1905 from NCDC which is one of the most unusually cool summer months for Dallas. Still quite hot overall. Was very wet though with over 10" of rain!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4339 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:26 pm

We have very few days below 90 during June, July and August. If we do it is because of an extended amount of rain. The last summer (that I can recall) where there was a ton of consistent summer rain and days below 90 was the Summer of 2007.

If the sun is out during those months, you can fughedaboudit!
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4340 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:50 pm

Six years ago this evening (Feb 2011) just before the Superbowl there was chatter in the air by Portastorm of Snow Grains in his back yard. The next morning DFW would wake up to 3-6" of fluffy powdery snow that fell overnight in the teens.

Relive the Superbowl outbreak here
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