Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS with widespread 30s across Florida late next week:

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS already backing away with the cold compared to previous runs.

EDIT: And just like that the 12z GFS backs off significantly more on the extent of the cold that penetrates down the FL Peninsula. Never trust the models past 4-5 days IMO.

[psyclone]

90% chance we are entering the twilight of another non winter. It's just a matter of running down the clock. The long range GFS is the biggest running scam since Miss Cleo's psychic hotline. No frost and no freeze in my neighborhood yet again (not even a solid threat)...and that record is likely (though not certain) to remain intact.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think it will flip again cool/cold at least for 2 days in about a week or so. Teleconnections signs are coming together if it holds. It's over 168hrs out. Anything can change.
Like I said maybe

Heading into next week, the 12z GFS maintains a drier pocket of
air over the region while the 12z European model (ecmwf) moistens things up a bit.
Late in the period, heading into early next week, the next system
approaches the eastern United States which could bring an increase
in rain chances across the area by Tuesday. The forecast
evolution of this system should be monitored over the coming days
to determine its potential impacts to South Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Snippet from the NWS: Miami January Weather Summary.

"Only 5 cold fronts moved through South Florida in January, three of these coming in the last 8 days of the month."

Dang only 5 cold fronts total for the month of January! That has to be a record low number of fronts successfully moving through South Florida for the month of January?

Anyone know what the average number of cold fronts South Florida usually gets in January is?

[CDO62]

In the latest 06Z GFS run, this was the coldest temps I could find.

[gatorcane]

The overnight GFS runs have gone colder again 00Z run posted below, the 06Z is a few degrees warmer:

[Ntxw]

Irony of it is, most of the country could blowtorch in February except for one location...Florida. +PNA is going to keep you guys mostly seasonal and perhaps slightly below average at times relative to everyone else

[northjaxpro]

We will have at least a winter- like feeling today as a local nor' easter is occuring in the Jax area today due to a trough of low pressure just offshore, funneling northeast winds. Temps should.stay in the 50s here all day as cloudy, cool and breezy conditions will be only for one day though, as the trough will lift out tomorrow and we will return to more seasonable weather for Super Bowl Sunday. Back in the low 70s for tomorrow here and the sun returning.

At least we have another brief cool down coming for next weekend though as we should have a bit below normal temperatures and a possible light freeze across the normally, colder interior areas of North Florida by next Sunday morning. The advertised cold front should move thorough on Thursday of this week.

[NDG]

I see that GFS once again fooled the cold wx lovers in FL in its medium forecast range, next weekend looks just about average, if that.

[northjaxpro]

I see that GFS once again fooled the cold wx lovers in FL in its medium forecast range, next weekend looks just about average, if that.

Yes I agree, although I still think there is a possibility the models may change and temps could get at worst slightly below average for next weekend. However, this is not saying much the way it has been this non-winter.

[northjaxpro]

I see that GFS once again fooled the cold wx lovers in FL in its medium forecast range, next weekend looks just about average, if that.

Yes I agree, although I still think there is a possibility the models may change and temps could get at worst slightly below average for next weekend. However, this is not saying much the way it has been this non-winter.

[Patrick99]

Well, NWS Miami now isn't even mentioning temps in the 50s for this weekend, so I guess that's that. Looks like nothing but a glancing blow with winds quickly going around E-NE. I'll enjoy the "cooler" weather, regardless.

[gatorcane]

Yeah cooler weather is fine with me. I'll take what I can get. This weekend had some subtle hints that the summer season is right around the corner. It felt warm at times under the sun with light winds and cumulus to the west over the Everglades. Certainly not looking forward to that unbearable heat that awaits!

[NDG]

Yeah, it feels and looks more like March/April than early February out there.

[psyclone]

there was a 14 degree temp spread yesterday between eastern Hillsborough county and Pinellas county thanks to a seabreeze cooling the coastal locations. today the seabreeze didn't happen so it was 80 across the board. It has indeed felt more like March/April which is tough to argue with...that timeframe seems to provide some of the most livable weather of the year.

[TheStormExpert]

Other than the Cumulus Clouds building out over the Atlantic the other day to me it does not feel like summer one bit. At the most it feels like early spring but overall this weather is a whole lot better than what we experienced back in December! Thankfully we have a good 3 months until the wrath of Summer begins.

[Patrick99]

It is still thankfully a lot cooler in the morning than it is during the summer sweat-fest. It's 67-68 before the sun comes up....nice enough that you can walk around a bit without getting too sweaty. In May-October, we see many mornings that don't even break 80 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid-70s.

You can tell, though - that midday sun is getting pretty high, starting to flex its muscle.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Warm afternoon- currently 80 at St.Pete/Clearwater Airport.

[northjaxpro]

Azaleas are already at full bloom in my yard and it is only the first week of February. I am about ready to say it. As a matter of fact, I will. Spring is here!!

We have only had 4 official freezes recorded this Fall 2016 /Winter 2017 season at the NWS Jax WFO and also at my home station. Pathetic! Since December 2009 and January 2010, the last time we truly had a -NAO during meteorological winter, we simply have had plain and simple just mild to warmer than average winters. Bad for bug and pest control, but great for warm weather enthusiasts.

I think Spring is here and I know things in weather changes, but I do not foresee any drastic chages down the pike. We may see a couple of more cool spells, but definitely no prolonged periods of cold, barring a major tanking of the NAO, which just does not happen or refuses to happen in our corner of the world in the winter months.