Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

I haven't totally given up on winter and wouldn't be surprised to see it make one last push towards the end of Feb or early March. As far as the future, N. Texas does much better during weaker Ninos as evidence by '09/10. The QBO flip should work to keep any Nino in check and things are looking pretty good for next winter if we end up weaker +ENSO, +PDO, -QBO. Also, the Klotzbach & Gray index has the AMO negative again, warming ENSO, +PDO, -AMO is a strong wet spring signal for Texas.

Next winter? Next winter??! Bwahahahaaa ... I'll tell you what next winter will bring. Warmth. No snow for anyone south of Waco. It's the new normal, get used to it.

Wait until at least November before cancelling next winter! Lol

[wxman57]

Look like the models are latching on to Valentines and the days after for signature storm. -AO supports southern track and with a partial phase I would watch this system very closely. It will bring copious amounts of rain at the very least for the state.

Note that I will be flying to New Orleans early on Valentine's Day (court testimony as expert witness). Last time I left Texas y'all let that darn cold air down here. I'll be watching...

[Ntxw]

Look like the models are latching on to Valentines and the days after for signature storm. -AO supports southern track and with a partial phase I would watch this system very closely. It will bring copious amounts of rain at the very least for the state.

Note that I will be flying to New Orleans early on Valentine's Day (court testimony as expert witness). Last time I left Texas y'all let that darn cold air down here. I'll be watching...

. I would watch it down there for a tornado outbreak. Looks like mid Jan, when too many fatalities happened.

[wxman57]

Note that I will be flying to New Orleans early on Valentine's Day (court testimony as expert witness). Last time I left Texas y'all let that darn cold air down here. I'll be watching...

. I would watch it down there for a tornado outbreak. Looks like mid Jan, when too many fatalities happened.

I'll be flying back that evening, so I'm more concerned about weather in Houston for my return.

Meanwhile, new CFS weekly temperature anomaly forecast through the end of February has me a little concerned. The colors over Texas are not quite as much above normal by week 4. I'll only post the link so your eyes won't be hurt by the warmth.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

[Portastorm]

I haven't totally given up on winter and wouldn't be surprised to see it make one last push towards the end of Feb or early March. As far as the future, N. Texas does much better during weaker Ninos as evidence by '09/10. The QBO flip should work to keep any Nino in check and things are looking pretty good for next winter if we end up weaker +ENSO, +PDO, -QBO. Also, the Klotzbach & Gray index has the AMO negative again, warming ENSO, +PDO, -AMO is a strong wet spring signal for Texas.

Next winter? Next winter??! Bwahahahaaa ... I'll tell you what next winter will bring. Warmth. No snow for anyone south of Waco. It's the new normal, get used to it.

Wait until at least November before cancelling next winter! Lol

Sorry ... two consecutive non-winters and 6 years without a measurable snowfall will do that to a person ... I'll work harder at not being that cranky old guy.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are dipping the NAO to conjoin with the -AO. Along with the lowering PNA I am feeling more optimistic

[1900hurricane]

Walking outside between classes today feels amazing! Just the best.

[dhweather]

-> In Louisiana - Tornado emergency on the North Shore, Madisonville / Mandeville LA, and another tornado on the South Shore, Kenner/Metairie.

[wxman57]

Sorry ... two consecutive non-winters and 6 years without a measurable snowfall will do that to a person ... I'll work harder at not being that cranky old guy.

Don't give up, Portastorm! My cold-mongering co-worker and I were just talking. We see 2004 as a good analog for this year. Think about it - we started out with the Super Bowl in Houston, followed by a gradual shift in the Pacific to a weak El Nino by Summer. Very active hurricane season for the U.S.

And, finally, the Christmas Eve snow miracle:

[Tireman4]

Sorry ... two consecutive non-winters and 6 years without a measurable snowfall will do that to a person ... I'll work harder at not being that cranky old guy.

Don't give up, Portastorm! My cold-mongering co-worker and I were just talking. We see 2004 as a good analog for this year. Think about it - we started out with the Super Bowl in Houston, followed by a gradual shift in the Pacific to a weak El Nino by Summer. Very active hurricane season for the U.S.

Ok...is he just grasping at straws. Freaking 80's this week. I am just....well, at a loss for words. I just want NORMAL temperatures for February. Grrrr

[JDawg512]

Bad tornado outbreak around New Orleans. Damage in neighborhoods. Hope everyone in that area is staying safe.

[CaptinCrunch]

Our last shot for a Winter event here in NTX and as far south as perhaps Austin will fall between February 17th and March 17th. This is the period that this next cold phase will target, after that it's Spring and we shall turn our focus to the Severe Weather potential thru early June.

[Texas Snowman]

Sorry ... two consecutive non-winters and 6 years without a measurable snowfall will do that to a person ... I'll work harder at not being that cranky old guy.

Don't give up, Portastorm! My cold-mongering co-worker and I were just talking. We see 2004 as a good analog for this year. Think about it - we started out with the Super Bowl in Houston, followed by a gradual shift in the Pacific to a weak El Nino by Summer. Very active hurricane season for the U.S.

And, finally, the Christmas Eve snow miracle:

http://i68.tinypic.com/30xan46.jpg

Wow, talk about your analogs.

The 2004 Super Bowl at Reliant Stadium in Houston? Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady and the Patriots defeated Carolina 32–29 to win their second Super Bowl in three years. Adam Vinateri won the game with :04 left on a 41-yard field goal (after Carolina had tied it up 29-29 with 1:08 to play). That avoided the first OT in Super Bowl history.

And on Sunday at Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium? As you all know, Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady and the 2017 Patriots defeated Atlanta 34-28 in OT (after scoring with one minute remaining to tie the game up at 28-28). The Patriots got the win in OT to claim...drumroll please...their second Super Bowl in three years.

Ok, I'm calling it here: It IS going to snow in South / SE Texas next winter (and I'm saying Austin too).

Moral of this story / analog? For Tireman4 and Portastorm, Tom Brady > Wxman57!!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Certainly prayers are in order for our friends in SE Louisiana. All kinds of reports, photos and video showing up on Twitter (even twin tornadoes at one point). Looks like some violent tornadoes and SIGNIFICANT damage may have occurred.

[TheProfessor]

Woke up at 6:30 AM and it was 55 degrees outside. Had a strong wind gust from the south and it felt like a Texas spring morning. It felt good but all this changing weather is making me sick. I was 20 degrees last Friday, got up to 50 Sunday, it's 60 degrees today, highs in the 20s on Thursday and back to the upper 50s this weekend.

Edit: this is central Ohio, imagine how it feels down in Louisiana, probably very humid.

[Ntxw]

2017 is shaping up to be a bad tornado year. Jan and Feb have not been kind to life and property. This idea is backed up by warm gulf waters, warm southern tier and cool Pacific NW. Whenever a storms kicks out, they seem to be spinning up tornadoes easily, consistent with post Nina climo. Starts in dixie early in the year and could migrate westward as spring comes.

[Texas Snowman]

2017 is shaping up to be a bad tornado year. Jan and Feb have not been kind to life and property. This idea is backed up by warm gulf waters, warm southern tier and cool Pacific NW. Whenever a storms kicks out, they seem to be spinning up tornadoes easily, consistent with post Nina climo. Starts in dixie early in the year and could migrate westward as spring comes.

Yup, rough spring severe weather season could be waiting in the wings here and in Dixie Alley. No lasting winter has the Gulf warm and more than ready to fuel storms.

[TheProfessor]

2017 is shaping up to be a bad tornado year. Jan and Feb have not been kind to life and property. This idea is backed up by warm gulf waters, warm southern tier and cool Pacific NW. Whenever a storms kicks out, they seem to be spinning up tornadoes easily, consistent with post Nina climo. Starts in dixie early in the year and could migrate westward as spring comes.

Might be a heck of a year to have my first storm chase lol. Good thing we will be lead by someone who is a professional with severe weather in general.

[Ntxw]

2017 is shaping up to be a bad tornado year. Jan and Feb have not been kind to life and property. This idea is backed up by warm gulf waters, warm southern tier and cool Pacific NW. Whenever a storms kicks out, they seem to be spinning up tornadoes easily, consistent with post Nina climo. Starts in dixie early in the year and could migrate westward as spring comes.

Yup, rough spring severe weather season could be waiting in the wings here and in Dixie Alley. No lasting winter has the Gulf warm and more than ready to fuel storms.

Some will be under the gun again next week with a much deeper system and rich moisture connection.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im afraid SE Texas will be under the gun next week, any kind of low pressure coming through the borders of Texas will spell trouble. Upper level support will be there too. Had hail at my house with the last low pressure a couple of weeks ago when it passed through.Time to keep an eye on the Northeast with the same system, could lead to a big Nor'Easter if it phases at the right time and takes a favorable track.