Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Texas Snowman]

Got down to 31 here in Denison this morning. Felt like good weather to ride a bicycle in. Or maybe build a fire.

Looking forward to the chance of rain next week.

[Ntxw]

Here's the precedent for such a pattern that has produced the biggest February tornado in recent memory. The super Tuesday outbreak in 2008.

Euro EPS has been pretty steadily moving it up in time over the past couple of days and it is now in the D10 free map range. Kind of got that Feb tornado look:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

ETA: the Euro Weeklies continue to look active for Texas basically the entire run. Some below normal temps but probably not enough given warmth in the source region. So temp anomalies are probably driven mostly by cloud cover and rain.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, any way to get cold from other side of the world or is winter definitely over now? I don't think there is any reason to keep holding on imo. Unless you know something I don't know.

[Golf7070]

So what needs to happen to salvage a period of winter before we really run out of time?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, any way to get cold from other side of the world or is winter definitely over now? I don't think there is any reason to keep holding on imo. Unless you know something I don't know.

I think getting really cold, like from cross polar flow, is out the window the rest of the winter. Time has already run out for that kind of pattern to kick in time. The better odds is to luck out with what cold there is in Canada and hope for a deep storm.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, any way to get cold from other side of the world or is winter definitely over now? I don't think there is any reason to keep holding on imo. Unless you know something I don't know.

I think getting really cold, like from cross polar flow, is out the window this winter. Time has already run out for that kind of pattern to kick in time. The better odds is to luck out with what cold there is in Canada and hope for a deep storm.

Pacific is just not on our side I guess. Not sure how it got that way to be honest. Not good for people who like winter time for sure. I'm not sure how we can even luck out with Canada not cold but who knows

[Ntxw]

Pacific is just not on our side I guess. Not sure how it got that way to be honest. Not good for people who like winter time for sure. I'm not sure how we can even luck out with Canada not cold but who knows

I just don't see the PNA going negative anytime soon. I think we have two more remote shots, early next week and then the main system (the one we're talking about severe weather outbreak). Timing wise after that it gets tougher. Timing this winter has been awful.

[Brent]

Our window is just closing in general... given the pattern doesn't look favorable in the next couple weeks and by then March is around the corner... yes it can snow in March but it takes pure luck and we've had none this winter really and the chances only decrease the later it gets. I've slowly been giving up on winter for the last 2 weeks now and I've yet to see anything to pull me back in.

[bubba hotep]

Here's the precedent for such a pattern that has produced the biggest February tornado in recent memory. The super Tuesday outbreak in 2008.

https://i.imgsafe.org/d279190240.gif

Euro EPS has been pretty steadily moving it up in time over the past couple of days and it is now in the D10 free map range. Kind of got that Feb tornado look:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

ETA: the Euro Weeklies continue to look active for Texas basically the entire run. Some below normal temps but probably not enough given warmth in the source region. So temp anomalies are probably driven mostly by cloud cover and rain.

This is what I have for Feb tornadoes in Texas and nearby (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc)

[bubba hotep]

Who do I need to see about filing a Lack of Cold Air complaint!?

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/829911487489667078

[Texas Snowman]

March has occasionally been a good month for winter weather lovers here in the Red River counties.

As I've pointed out before, we've had several quality snow events in March including two significant snowfalls in a single week.

Then there was the big late season Arctic blast and thundersleet event in early March 2014 and the late February and early March snowfalls in 2015.

And that's not to mention a five-inch snowfall during the third week of March a few years ago.

So I personally won't give up hope until then.

[wxman57]

Perhaps the second or third week of March will feature a snow storm across Texas? Perhaps not... We just cannot get any real cold building in Canada with the current (and projected) upper-air pattern. You want snow? Go to New England, where they'll have another blizzard on Monday.

[Portastorm]

March has occasionally been a good month for winter weather lovers here in the Red River counties.

As I've pointed out before, we've had several quality snow events in March including two significant snowfalls in a single week.

Then there was the big late season Arctic blast and thundersleet event in early March 2014 and the late February and early March snowfalls in 2015.

And that's not to mention a five-inch snowfall during the third week of March a few years ago.

So I personally won't give up hope until then.

I could easily be wrong here but I couldn't help but get a sense from the overnight model runs that there may be some potential for the last week of February for us in Texas. Neither the GFS nor Euro showed anything definite but the appearance of a pattern change with a different 500mb flow as well as some colder air in the source regions lead me to believe it's possible. Kinda a hunch right now, which I know isn't worth much. LOL.

[Ntxw]

Go with your hunch Porta! What do you have to lose?!

[wxman57]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

[Ntxw]

We need Champ the Charger in West Texas next week (Lubbock to Midland) for a snow chase

[Portastorm]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

You're such a nice fellow, even when you sound like you're trolling me! Maybe I'll buy you lunch if you come to Austin next year for the AMS Conference.

[Tireman4]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

Oh that is just low...LOL....Right below the knees...Goodness gracious..

[wxman57]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

Oh that is just low...LOL....Right below the knees...Goodness gracious..

Hey, I'm just trying to give you something to look forward to. Perhaps Portastorm will join us for the Houston Hurricane Workshop lunch in June.

[Tireman4]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

Oh that is just low...LOL....Right below the knees...Goodness gracious..

Hey, I'm just trying to give you something to look forward to. Perhaps Portastorm will join us for the Houston Hurricane Workshop lunch in June.

Maybe sir, but gracious. Porta is going through withdrawals and then bam, right in the kisser. LOL. Yeah, I do hope he, Katdaddy, you, me, Srain, South Texas Storms,Vbhoutex as well as others, can make it.