Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TexasStorm]

Anyone have graphics for the negative tilt trough that is forecasted for late weekend early next week?

[Ntxw]

Signs of -EPO/-PNA in the medium-longer range

[Ntxw]

If you haven't checked the ENSO thread, Nino 3.4 had a +0.1 reading a big jump into warm neutral. The eastern basins look like Nino while the west is lagging a bit but warming. Cfsv2 forecasts a rapid rise towards a Nino this month and next which appears, for now, to be happening

Both California and Texas will start 2017 off with a surplus of water

[srainhoutx]

SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms for SE Texas tomorrow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Could Nino 1+2 be the reason for the last two Winters?

Much like the Warm Pool in the GOA were responsible for the Winters of 13-15.

[Ntxw]

Could Nino 1+2 be the reason for the last two Winters?

Much like the Warm Pool in the GOA were responsible for the Winters of 13-15.

Its more likely the GOA cold pool (extended Pacific jet) is the more defined reason the past two winters

[srainhoutx]

Could Nino 1+2 be the reason for the last two Winters?

Much like the Warm Pool in the GOA were responsible for the Winters of 13-15.

The current pattern is probably part of the PDO which correlates with a similar pattern seen in the late 50's...

[1900hurricane]

Everyone prepare for some powerful storms tomorrow. I have an exam at 1510Z tomorrow and unless I finish it extremely quickly, I probably cannot chase, so that pretty much seals the deal.

[TheAustinMan]

Looking at the National Weather Service radar pages, it appears that Level III radar data has ceased - at least temporarily - updating for the entire United States. Hopefully it comes back.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the National Weather Service radar pages, it appears that Level III radar data has ceased - at least temporarily - updating for the entire United States. Hopefully it comes back.

2 Core systems have crashed causing a Nation Wide outage on NWS Websites.

[JDawg512]

Moisture return has been quick this afternoon with humidity and dew points on the rise. I love moisture but when I'm trying to get some yard work done and I start sweating when the temp is 71 degrees, I get kinda grumpy. Just so long as it equates to good rainfall, I'll be dancing with joy all night long.

HRRR models are showing a pretty impressive blowup of storms along the I-35 corridor before the main line pushes in. Will be interesting to see if it plays out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Geez. Watching the HRRR right now. At 18 hours, the radar is really lit up with storms. A line forms that hasnt quite reached Houston yet, but in the hours leading up to it, there are some individual cells that are streaming northwards.

[bubba hotep]

Geez. Watching the HRRR right now. At 18 hours, the radar is really lit up with storms. A line forms that hasnt quite reached Houston yet, but in the hours leading up to it, there are some individual cells that are streaming northwards.

Looks impressive for sure

[Ntxw]

Through the next week GFS has rainfall totals for the these locales.

DFW: 4.35"
AUS: 2.29"
IAH: 1.92"
KSAT 1.87"


I would be wary of the Houston amount which is likely to be much higher, probably highest of the bunch. Still quite good rains to add onto the year, with rumblings of El Nino these totals will be interesting to watch and see how much adds up. Perhaps not the records of 2015 but should be plentiful.

[Shoshana]

We barely had winter and now it feels like spring!

Are we expecting hail in the thunderstorms tonight/tomorrow? Trying to decde whether to squeeze the car into the garage tonight

[JDawg512]

It's possible that some storms could produce hail overnight. I think the further east of I-35 the greater the risk becomes.

HRRR model from earlier was a bit off going by how the current radar looks, but it's the bigger picture rather than the details that should be paid attention to. The storms to the west are very slowly inching their way towards the east/northeast. Will wait and see if we get increasing rain ahead of the line or if it stays quiet until it arrives.

[weatherdude1108]

Found out my water supply line was very slow leaking from meter to house, enough to saturate corner near house for last two months, but not enough to register movement on meter dial or usage. Got it fixed this past Saturday, when plumber found slow leaking around loose fitting after 1.5 hours of digging. I gave up finding it a couple weeks prior to that with my own digging in the mud. Could use a couple more days dry out time in that corner, but yeah, we need the rain.

[bubba hotep]

Still lots of details to work out but next weekend is certainly interesting looking. Have seen lots of these look formidable and then not pan out due to timing or any number of other issues. Really, the most intriguing thing about this, at this time, is that the Euro EPS has been on it since it started showing up on the D14 or D13 plots.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/831356017153863683

[wxman57]

Looks like I'm getting out of Houston ahead of the storms this morning. Hope I make it back this evening. Seasonal temps behind the front tomorrow and Thursday but back to near 80 over the weekend. Good riding weather.

From my ride last weekend - another sign of spring:

[KatDaddy]

From the Houston-Galveston's morning AFD:

Significant tornado parameters from SPC Mesoanalysis as well as the Texas Tech WRF are also highlighting this increa sing tornado threat and have concerns that a significant tornado (EF2 or greater) could be observed today.

Remain very weather aware today across S Central TX, SE TX, and the Middle and Upper TX Coast. A Tornado Watch has just been issued until 1:00PM this afternoon The main area of concern are areas S of I-10 to the coast.

Parameters are in place for the tornado potential to increase later this morning as storms intensify betweenVictoria and San Antonio and push into SE TX ahead of the of squall line. Any of these discreet cells will have the potential to produce tornadoes.

A very busy SE TX weather day ahead for this Valentines Day.