ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 has gone up a lot in the past few days (+0.2C as of this post) The CPC Monday update was at +0.1C.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 has gone up a lot in the past few days (+0.2C as of this post) The CPC Monday update was at +0.1C.

[img]//http://i.imgur.com/FGnEPf9.png[/img]

Of course it needs to be sustained, but we went from a final "La-Nina" advisory to warm neutral, in less than a week.

[RL3AO]

A little off topic but I'm finding the very strong MJO signal in the western hemisphere to be quite fascinating right now. One of the strongest on record in the western hemisphere.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Hunabku]

With PDO flipped positive seems like we've entered a new normal of hotter global temps. The long-term AGW trend (beyond PDO) in nino regions is non-linear due to climatic feedbacks associated with AGW. So we can expect records to be broken. If this upcoming nino barely registers as a weak nino then it might be demoted back to a neutral in 5 years when NOAA updates their 30 year base period. My prediction is that this El Nino will be strong enough to keep it's designation 5 years from now - especially since AGW induced heating is ramping so intensely along with the +PDO.

[Hurricaneman]

If the SOI remains Positive the models may not be wrong but the ENSO 1-2 and part of 3 might be cool but we have to remember 1969 was a moderate El Nino Madoki and quite damaging to the US

also remembered 2014 was pretty much an El Nino madoki and the numbers weren't all that high and that was before the super nino came on after the SOI tanked and WWBs caused the anomalies to spread east by 2015

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/831978344417746945

[Kingarabian]

[RL3AO]

I'm curious to see if this incredibly strong MJO pulse bringing the positive 850mb anomalies into the eastern pacific can actually help lead to an El Nino state.

[euro6208]

Correct me if i'm wrong but if we do get some type of nino especially the strong to super, one of the first signals to look for is in the WPAC.

Having a Cat 5 before April or on May, these will help create more westerly wind burst to help the emerging nino like what we saw in 97 Isa (April) and 2015 Maysak (March), Noul and Dolphin (May).

Interesting few weeks ahead if we get any. Get at least one then ummm.

Another powerful season shaping up for Super Typhoons.

[Ntxw]

Today's daily SOI is -40...just wow.

[1900hurricane]

Today's daily SOI is -40...just wow.

13F/90P is currently hanging around Tahiti and may be exaggerating the SOI a little bit, but having storms developing so far east in the SPAC requires having active convection and therefore lower surface pressures out there. Niko developed in a similar location in January 2015, just as momentum began to build for the El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Yeah the little system is boosting it but you are also correct it is a symptom of the overall bigger pattern which is also boosted by the equatorial waves. Still impressive nonetheless

[cycloneye]

I have never seen a huge spike at Nino 3.4 like what is occurring now. As of 06z update on Febuary 16 it was at +0.6C and that is El Nino territory.Remember that on the CPC weekly update it was at -0.1C but of course there will not be El Nino advisory so fast however is very interesting what is going on.

[Ntxw]

I have never seen a huge spike at Nino 3.4 like what is occurring now. As of 06z update on Febuary 16 it was at +0.6C and that is El Nino territory.Remember that on the CPC weekly update it was at =0.1C but of course there will not be El Nino advisory so fast however is very interesting what is going on.

I think it is MJO related spike and not long term because below the surface there is not strong support. It's still curious the CFSv2 had the quick spike in Feb and El Nino readings in March. The surrounding indexes are more interesting given they can set up the base to promote El Nino if the subsurface develops. It is easier to get an event when the atmosphere is conducive.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion of the Nino 3.4 spike by Michael Ventrice and Levi Cowan in the replies.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/832248326863122432

[cycloneye]

The mid Febuary ENSO plume consensus (Yellow Line) update of the models is at Weak El Nino by ASO.Let's see how the plume does in the next few months.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET joins the Euro in predicting a moderate Nino developing by the summer.

Dr. Jeff Masters:

In its February monthly advisory, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. Over the past week, SSTs have warmed rapidly in the Niño 3.4 region to more than 0.5°C above average but this surge may be temporary (Figure 3). We would need to see sustained warmth for many weeks at this level before crying, “El Niño is coming!” NOAA forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. For the September - November 2017 period, they predict a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, a 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of an El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring, and the latest May-June-July run of the UKMET model predicted a moderate El Niño by early summer. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by bringing strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears storms apart.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/832328734703235073

[cycloneye]

Very warm forecast.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/832255708800307200