SWIO: DINEO: Post-Tropical

[Calasanjy]

A healthy circulation has developed in the Mozambique Channel, and the JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA).



This has apparently rapidly consolidated from the point that it was not mentioned by the JTWC a mere 12 hours ago, but suddenly appeared on the Indian Ocean outlook as having "high probability" of formation into a significant TC, and therefore a TCFA was issued:

WTXS21 PGTW 121300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5S 40.4E TO 23.2S 37.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121230Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7S 39.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 40.1E, APPROXIMATELY 505
NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
A 120930Z GCOM-W1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL-ORGANIZED
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWESTWRAD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131300Z.//
NNNN

[Calasanjy]

Also, MFR has not yet identified (numbered) this system. I think it could rapidly develop into Tropical Storm Dineo before potentially impacting Mozambique. It is quite a broad and impressive circulation.

[1900hurricane]

This is classifiable.

[Steve820]

As the person above said, this looks classifiable. Dineo may form from this later today or tonight and strengthen a little before striking Mozambique. Nice to see some activity here after a very inactive early season . But then the other two SHem basins are still very dead (SPac and Au)...

[wxman57]

Dineo has formed. Winds around 40kts. La Reunion Island has been issuing advisories all weekend. JTWC doesn't tend to issue advisories until a day or so after a system becomes a TC.

Latest Advisory: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/DINEO

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Storm DINEO
SWIO
Position: 22.2°S, 39.0°E
Winds: 65mph
Pressure: 986mb
Movement: SW at 4mph
14/02/2017 08:15 UTC


floaters 2hrs earlier






Big ramp-up to a v/dangerous system on this model run.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtio30.fmee..txt, recovered at: 2017-02-15 0115Z

WTIO30 FMEE 150022 RRB
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED A LOT, WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (IR BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE BELOW -90AOC), IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, INSIDE A BUILDING CURVED BAND. 2246Z GPM
MICROWAVE SWATH SHOW A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL INNER CORE
EVEN IF THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER IN THE WESTERN PARTS. THEREFORE,
INTENSITY WAS UPGRADED TO 60KT. ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, A
WARM SPOT NEAR THE CENTER CAN BE SEEN.
DINEO CONTINUE ITS ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT
HOURS, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA SHOULD STEER
THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARDS THE WEST. AT A CLOSE RANGE (18H), A LANDFALL
IS NOW VERY LIKELY NORTH OF INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE (WEDNESDAY NEAR
18 UTC). THE SPREAD AMONGST THE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST IMAGES, DINEO SEEMS TO START A NEW DEEPENING
PHASE. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ) AND THE TRAVEL OVER VERY WARM WATER BEFORE
LANDFALL, A STRONG DEEPENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. DINEO
MAY BE A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE INHAMBANE REGION, BY
THIS EVENING.
THE THREAT IS BUILDING FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. STORM SURGE UP TO 2M
IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT. THE REAL STORM SURGE AMPLITUDE AT INHAMBANE
WILL DEPEND UPON TIMING WITH THE HIGH TIDE IN ADDITION TO THE FINAL
DISTANCE AT LANDFALL, THE SECTOR AND THE REAL FINAL INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL.=

Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtxs31.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2017-02-15 0145Z

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 37.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 37.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.2S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.3S 35.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 37.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTER INTO AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
142246Z SSMIS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST NEAR 30C. TC
05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 12 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. TC DINEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A
PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

05S DINEO 170215 0600 22.9S 37.3E SHEM 65 974

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/831849061271601152

[1900hurricane]

05S DINEO 170215 0600 22.9S 37.3E SHEM 65 974

Second of the Southern Hemisphere season. Looks like it has developed a banding eye.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery DINEO.
http://imgur.com/a/wVqVV



pre-landfall.