Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TheProfessor]

I really can't believe El nino may be coming right back... I still feel a lot of this messed up pattern is leftovers from the last one...

That is a pretty good guess. The super nino data set is too small but they appear to really mix things up long term. One possible saving grace, if the QBO does flip then that should help keep this coming nino in check.

The signs of the oncoming Nino tell me it may not have been meant to be for me to see a lot of snow in Ohio, should have been born a year or 2 earlier if I wanted that.

[Ntxw]

I really can't believe El nino may be coming right back... I still feel a lot of this messed up pattern is leftovers from the last one...

There is no precedent for it, truly unknown. CFSv2 and Euro are moderate to strong, while Ukmet is strong.

I still urge caution with ENSO though because there is not yet a large warm pool and mostly it is models predicting something that isn't yet there. Still though ticker is pointed towards another Nino with all the perimeter evidence.

[bubba hotep]

Might be a bit early but the SAI index, can we chalk this one up as a loss? We had a period where cold anomalies built up in Canada a few times, led to two different freeze events for us here in SE Tx, but again, the SAI didnt really impress me. I initially thought it led to more blocking or a -NAO later on in the winter, but it seems the greatest impact this year was early on in the season. Obviously SOOO many factors at play in the weather. Any input on this?

I feel the pacific threw us for a loop this winter. Highly unpredictable.

SAI's correlation with the AO has been really bad. We were better off going by solar activity.Also can't dismiss the fact that Super El Nino's have lingering effects in the oceans and atmosphere for years no matter how subtle.

The past few years have been so out of whack globally that they probably are outliers in the record, making it hard to tell if the SAI actually has any usefulness. If we return to some kind of a "normal" pattern over the next 4 or 5 years then maybe the SAI will prove to be more useful? There is a growing body of research that points to changes in SST configurations altering the Walker and Hadley cells, so this previous El Nino probably did even more so.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is trending downwards on precipitation totals for next weeks system. Anyone with more knowledge care to explain to me why it's doing that? It's gone from 4 to 6 inch totals to 1-2 inch totals in just 24 hours for SE TX. Yesterday's runs were way more bullish and it has trended drier every run since then.

[Brent]

GFS has a freeze at DFW to open March... would be the first one since early January...



I will say, there has been a pretty consistent signal for some cold air there, the level of which remains to be seen and it is a thousand hours out...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was'97 nino like this??

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like I will manage a freeze here tonight. Temps around freezing now at 0330 with DPs in the upper 20s.

[KatDaddy]

The weather roller coaster continues for SE TX.

A rather chilly start to the morning with temps in the low 40s and a few 30s across SE TX. Highs will approach 70F this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase early tomorrow especially along the coast as a low pressure area currently over N MX moves into W and NW TX resulting in GOM moisture spreading inland across the TX coast. Heavy rain and a few strong storms may be possible along the immediate coastal areas Friday morning.

Saturday looks mostly sunny and warm with highs in the low 80s. Increasing clouds and thunderstorm chances Sunday ahead of the next significant storm system for early next week.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up a light freeze and decent frost this morning. Winter is still trying to hold on to the little it has left.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI is -40..that is really strong and was -23 yesterday. -40s and up are usually reserved for big El Nino events. It also means another heavy rain event is likely.

[Ntxw]

To note I would not sleep on the next system. It has juice with it, Los Angeles could get 5 inches of rainfall which is a third of their yearly rain. No reason to believe it won't drop plenty in Texas either.

[Portastorm]

Daily SOI is -40..that is really strong and was -23 yesterday. -40s and up are usually reserved for big El Nino events. It also means another heavy rain event is likely.

Generally speaking, how long does it take for our weather to be impacted by an SOI crash?

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI is -40..that is really strong and was -23 yesterday. -40s and up are usually reserved for big El Nino events. It also means another heavy rain event is likely.

Generally speaking, how long does it take for our weather to be impacted by an SOI crash?

Truthfully I don't really know for sure. I've seen cases 7-14 days and some cases pretty much simultaneously. But in general if there is a SOI crash against the norm then you will see a better equatorial tropical Pacific feed into systems. It's more with the timing of the system, which the next storm make take advantage of.

If you use normalized pwats you can see the signature of the subtropical jet extending from the SW US into the Pacific towards the southwest

[Portastorm]

Good stuff ... thanks! I consider you one of our ENSO experts.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Good stuff ... thanks! I consider you one of our ENSO experts.

Kind words my friend. I would label myself ENSO fanatic . It all starts and ends with ENSO for me, without it trying to forecast winter or any other season (even hurricane season) would be walking in the dark.

[bubba hotep]

The potential for one last cold shot is starting to appear in the longer range. It looks like the Pacific jet might relax allowing some cold to actually build over Canada towards the end of February. Climo starts working against N. Texas with the quickness but there are plenty of examples of winter striking back during the last week of Feb or 1st of March.

https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/statu ... 8795999232

Models are starting to come into agreement on this.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a cold front moving through on March 2nd, cooling temps down slightly below normal for about 24 hrs. Not much of an event.

[bubba hotep]

12Z GFS has a cold front moving through on March 2nd, cooling temps down slightly below normal for about 24 hrs. Not much of an event.

But after that... Locked and loaded lol

[Ntxw]

Some members place the PNA negative. That would definitely help carve a large trough in the intermountain west and plains. Helps to funnel that Canada air due south rather than east/southeast.

[JDawg512]

Picked up a little more than an inch at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Had a little lightning and thunder here and there but mostly just light-moderate rains. Looks like more coming this weekend.

Good work Rainmiser (JDawg512)!

Thanks, it's part of the reason why I've been so busy and haven't been on in 2 days lol. .

Got about 1.29 which is a perfect amount to get the top layer of soil losened up just in time for yard work spring preparations. The next system looks pretty interesting.