Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

Blend of 12z GFS & Euro would be 2.5-4" of rain for areas along and east of I35 in DFW.

[Ntxw]

DFW's Feb daily rainfall record is 3.08". If forecast holds it will be up there.

[dhweather]

Well I found one negative thing about rain:

“You know it’s crazy, but with the drought we had for a while, and now all the water we’ve been having, cedar trees love water. So they soak up the water this year even more so it’s just going to make it a lot more powerful when they release their pollen.”

Full article: https://www.texasstandard.org/shows/010 ... this-year/

[Ntxw]

I've been going through LA news outlets, the coming rainfall (same system that will effect us) is making big headlines. They don't experience much weather in southern California so you can believe news crews will be out and about at the strange gold that falls from the sky! Very El Nino like for them

 https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/832394224276557825




Heaviest rains will be along the hillsides of Santa Barbara and Malibu, could see mudslides out of that region.

[Ntxw]

As for us, GFS taunting us. This is a little after the end of the Euro which has a big -EPO trough digging in. Winter ain't over folks, better take those plants back in

[Ntxw]

And to top it off, more members today show negative PNA. Even if it doesn't go negative it is falling hard enough for a big trough to carve the center of the nation.

[Brent]

Silly gfs lol

[South Texas Storms]

If the models continue to trend progressive with next week's storm system, AUS, DFW, and SAT won't get much rain.

[bubba hotep]

If the models continue to trend progressive with next week's storm system, AUS, DFW, and SAT won't get much rain.

You mean the GFS? The 12z Euro was plenty wet for DFW and down I35. I wouldn't expect the models to really look in until the current H5 system over Texas kicks out. We'll probably see some more shuffling around of things but I'm not giving up on the rain just yet.

[South Texas Storms]

If the models continue to trend progressive with next week's storm system, AUS, DFW, and SAT won't get much rain.

You mean the GFS? The 12z Euro was plenty wet for DFW and down I35. I wouldn't expect the models to really look in until the current H5 system over Texas kicks out. We'll probably see some more shuffling around of things but I'm not giving up on the rain just yet.

Yeah and the NAM (just not as progressive as the GFS). I'm expecting an eastward shift in the heaviest QPF on the 0z Euro tonight. I hope I'm wrong though.

[bubba hotep]

And to top it off, more members today show negative PNA. Even if it doesn't go negative it is falling hard enough for a big trough to carve the center of the nation.

The 18z GEFS breaks down the Pacific jet and it never truly recovers allowing some cold to build in Canada. This would also favor a -PNA pattern and possibly one last arctic dump. But can we get any energy to time up for a last long shot chance at winter weather?

[Brent]

The GFS is cold and active at the end of February/early March. Definitely some snow in the Panhandle and in Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS (if real) would definitely be a rude awakening for the flora and fauna that believed spring has sprung. Will we pull some -PNA magic? It has happened before back in 2015!

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, is this all happening due to mjo only or are there other factors?

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw, is this all happening due to mjo only or are there other factors?

The MJO is amped up and that is pumping out an amazing amount of heat. There is also a big time mountain torque underway in Asia. Both are working to really jack up the Pacific jet. That is a big time warm signal for parts of NA in the medium range and is showing up nicely in the models. The question is... does the pattern relax? If the MJO gets into the IO then that shows some teleconection to a retracked jet and -PNA. However, if it propagates to quickly through the IO then the whole process of jacking up the Pacific gets started again. Remember, we were basically in the same position at this time in January thinking the Pacific was going to play nice and allow us to get cold at the beginning of February.

[South Texas Storms]

As I suspected, the latest models continue to trend east with the axis of the heaviest rainfall, and now the heaviest is mostly east of IH-35. If the GFS and NAM are right, even Houston might miss out on the heavy rain.

[Portastorm]

As I suspected, the latest models continue to trend east with the axis of the heaviest rainfall, and now the heaviest is mostly east of IH-35. If the GFS and NAM are right, even Houston might miss out on the heavy rain.

You and NWS, at least the local office, appear to be in disagreement on this next storm system. They're siding with the Euro and have consistently called for 2-3" or more along and east of the I-35 corridor.

[South Texas Storms]

As I suspected, the latest models continue to trend east with the axis of the heaviest rainfall, and now the heaviest is mostly east of IH-35. If the GFS and NAM are right, even Houston might miss out on the heavy rain.

You and NWS, at least the local office, appear to be in disagreement on this next storm system. They're siding with the Euro and have consistently called for 2-3" or more along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Yeah we'll see Porta. I've just noticed a gradual eastward shift in the heaviest rainfall totals over the past few model runs. The Euro is currently the slowest solution and still has 1-3 inches along IH-35, but even it has gradually shifted eastward since yesterday. I'm just saying the trend isn't our friend right now if we want another soaking rain event in a few days.

[bubba hotep]

As I suspected, the latest models continue to trend east with the axis of the heaviest rainfall, and now the heaviest is mostly east of IH-35. If the GFS and NAM are right, even Houston might miss out on the heavy rain.

You and NWS, at least the local office, appear to be in disagreement on this next storm system. They're siding with the Euro and have consistently called for 2-3" or more along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Yeah we'll see Porta. I've just noticed a gradual eastward shift in the heaviest rainfall totals over the past few model runs. The Euro is currently the slowest solution and still has 1-3 inches along IH-35, but even it has gradually shifted eastward since yesterday. I'm just saying the trend isn't our friend right now if we want another soaking rain event in a few days.

Another thing with the changes, svr wx threat for Sunday across Texas seems to be on the uptick. Still lots to figure out with timing and orientation.

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago
Massive SOI Crash indicative of major pattern changes on way as winter will attack for first 3 weeks of March. El Nino coming on for
summer