2016 Cyclones Retirement
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Matthew's retired for certain after all the havoc it caused.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
If Nicole ends up being a major problem for Bermuda, she could be a candidate too.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
HurricaneRyan wrote:If Nicole ends up being a major problem for Bermuda, she could be a candidate too.
I'm starting to think that too, but we'll see how bad it is to know if Bermuda (via the UK) will decide to do such.
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- Kazmit
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
I like the name Marcus as a replacement for Matthew.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Going storm by storm, here is how I would consider the retirement prospects of the 2015 storms:
Hurricane Alex
Case FOR retirement: Meteorological freak of nature, hit the Azores
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal damage
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Bonnie
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm with modest impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Colin
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Danielle
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie and Colin
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Hurricane Earl
Case FOR retirement: Significant damage in Mexico and large loss of life
Case AGAINST retirement: Inconsistent retirement record
My probability of retirement: 40%
Verdict: (barely)
Tropical Storm Fiona
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Gaston
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts despite high intensity
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Hurricane Hermine
Case FOR retirement: Noticeable impact in an area of the coast not hit recently
Case AGAINST retirement: Low death toll, damage overall not very heavy
My probability of retirement: 20%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Ian
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Julia
Case FOR retirement: Some flooding and coastal impacts (more of a precursor)
Case AGAINST retirement: No fatalities, overall damage minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Karl
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Impact very minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Lisa
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Matthew
Case FOR retirement: Catastrophic damage and very high death toll in Haiti, severe damage in US, Bahamas and Cuba
Case AGAINST retirement: Not much of any
My probability of retirement: 98%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Nicole
Case FOR retirement: High intensity hit for Bermuda
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage far less than Fabian and even less than Fay or Gonzalo, no fatalities
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict:
Hurricane Otto
Case FOR retirement: Strong late season storm in an area that experiences few tropical cyclones; significant death toll
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not too extreme; little experience with cases in Panama/Costa Rica
My probability of retirement: 30%
Verdict:
Hurricane Alex
Case FOR retirement: Meteorological freak of nature, hit the Azores
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal damage
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Bonnie
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm with modest impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Colin
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Danielle
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie and Colin
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Hurricane Earl
Case FOR retirement: Significant damage in Mexico and large loss of life
Case AGAINST retirement: Inconsistent retirement record
My probability of retirement: 40%
Verdict: (barely)
Tropical Storm Fiona
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Gaston
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts despite high intensity
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Hurricane Hermine
Case FOR retirement: Noticeable impact in an area of the coast not hit recently
Case AGAINST retirement: Low death toll, damage overall not very heavy
My probability of retirement: 20%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Ian
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Julia
Case FOR retirement: Some flooding and coastal impacts (more of a precursor)
Case AGAINST retirement: No fatalities, overall damage minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Karl
Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Impact very minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:
Tropical Storm Lisa
Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Matthew
Case FOR retirement: Catastrophic damage and very high death toll in Haiti, severe damage in US, Bahamas and Cuba
Case AGAINST retirement: Not much of any
My probability of retirement: 98%
Verdict:
Major Hurricane Nicole
Case FOR retirement: High intensity hit for Bermuda
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage far less than Fabian and even less than Fay or Gonzalo, no fatalities
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict:
Hurricane Otto
Case FOR retirement: Strong late season storm in an area that experiences few tropical cyclones; significant death toll
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not too extreme; little experience with cases in Panama/Costa Rica
My probability of retirement: 30%
Verdict:
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Unless 90L turns into a bad Otto, the retirement candidates will remain the obvious Matthew - and Earl, Hermine and Nicole as candidates too
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Matthew - 100%
Catastrophic damage in Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, and United States. High death toll in Haiti and United States.
Otto - 80-90%
Torrential rains in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama. Fatalities in Costa Rica and Panama. First time hit for Costa Rica, and a basin crossing phenom.
Earl - 60-70%
High death toll and torrential rains in Belize and Mexico. (However Mexico is wishy washy on their retirement record)
Nicole - 40-50%
Unusual head on landfall for Bermuda, unusually long living. 1 direct fatality and storm disrupted the function of the nation.
Catastrophic damage in Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, and United States. High death toll in Haiti and United States.
Otto - 80-90%
Torrential rains in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama. Fatalities in Costa Rica and Panama. First time hit for Costa Rica, and a basin crossing phenom.
Earl - 60-70%
High death toll and torrential rains in Belize and Mexico. (However Mexico is wishy washy on their retirement record)
Nicole - 40-50%
Unusual head on landfall for Bermuda, unusually long living. 1 direct fatality and storm disrupted the function of the nation.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Matthew yes, the others have little chance.
No chance at all for Nicole. Not as bad as Gonzalo, which was not retired. Otto not enough deaths. Others have caused far worse and remain. Same with Earl
No chance at all for Nicole. Not as bad as Gonzalo, which was not retired. Otto not enough deaths. Others have caused far worse and remain. Same with Earl
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Updated my list. I'd give Otto a chance but by no means a slam dunk (in fact I wouldn't retire it).
Matthew is the only one I have the to, although Earl and Otto have some chance. Agreed Nicole won't be retired since it wasn't as bad as Gonzalo (or even Fay) from 2014.
As for the EPAC, almost certainly no retirements this year.
Matthew is the only one I have the to, although Earl and Otto have some chance. Agreed Nicole won't be retired since it wasn't as bad as Gonzalo (or even Fay) from 2014.
As for the EPAC, almost certainly no retirements this year.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
CrazyC83 wrote:Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?
When exactly did that form again? It was after Earl right? Fiona would've been the name for it. Which means that if that happened, Matthew would have been named Nicole.
Even if it didn't develop into a named storm, Matthew could've still been named Nicole if TD 8 developed. And of course, if both happened, Matthew would have been Otto.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
HurricaneRyan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?
When exactly did that form again? It was after Earl right? Fiona would've been the name for it. Which means that if that happened, Matthew would have been named Nicole.
Even if it didn't develop into a named storm, Matthew could've still been named Nicole if TD 8 developed. And of course, if both happened, Matthew would have been Otto.
Yep that is correct. I believe Fiona formed (in reality) just after that system.
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- DanieleItalyRm
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Good morning friends, what you intend to retreat? I do not understand..
Thanks,
Thanks,
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
Earl's chances have slightly been increased thanks to the TC report bringing the death toll up higher.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)
I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)
I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.
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- AJC3
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
CrazyC83 wrote:The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)
I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.
This proposal will get sunk. There is no way the RSMC (NHC) will agree to it.
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
CrazyC83 wrote:The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)
I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.
It is cat 2+ not major hurricane
6.4 The criteria which is proposed for retiring tropical cyclone names makes use of what is the current criteria, but adds the element of the wind field. The proposed criteria are as follows:
1. The Tropical Cyclone must be a hurricane with a sustained maximum 1-minute wind of 96 mph (154 kmh-1) or higher;
2. The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage;
3. Other special reasons.
It is still the most idiotic thing I have ever heard. They are saying a storm like Agnes or Irene should not be retired.
Yes, I have said many times we are too loose on retirement. However, storms like Allison should be retired before storms like Bret. And not retiring Agnes is as dumb as not retiring Nina (though an argument can be made that since Nina was not retired, NO storm should ever be retired)
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
as not retiring Nina (though an argument can be made that since Nina was not retired, NO storm should ever be retired)
What are you referring to? The 2016 supertyphoon Nina did result in both Nina (its name on the only-Philippines list) and Nock-ten (its name on the international western Pacific list) retired.
The 1957 Hurricane Nina that resulted in high winds in Honolulu didn't have its name officially retired, but that's a bit irrelevant since its not on the lists presently used in the Central Pacific, anyway.
The 1975 typhoon that caused huge loss of life in China because of a dam collapse is also moot since the western Pacific names have changed since then. And was China itself even using names for typhoons in 1975? If people in China weren't thinking of the storm as having the name Nina, there would be no reason for them to ask for its retirement.
And retirement has never been worldwide -- it only pertains to the particular "basin". So there is nothing that would prevent a storm near Australia from being named Katrina in the future -- or one in the Atlantic being named Nina, Tracy, or Marcia.
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- TheEuropean
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Re: 2016 Cyclones Retirement
When will we know which names of the 2016 season are retired?
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