SWIO: ENAWO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

MJO has returned to phase 2/3. Not surprised to see the enhanced convection return across the region.



Looks like this could be a fun one to track over the week.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Still unclassified at the time of posting. Sure looks TC now.

[kala]

WTIO30 FMEE 030702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20162017
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
2.A POSITION 2017/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/03 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2017/03/04 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFT TOWARDS A CURVED
BAND PATTERN THAT WRAPS 0.5° AROUND THE LLCC (A BIT MORE SOMETIMES).
PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA OF THIS MORNIG SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
ONLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEK-END, LEAVING THE SYSTEM DRIFTING
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ( A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE). IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE AVAILABLE MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A MORE ZONAL TRACK AND A DELAYED PARABOLIC TRACK, BRINGING
THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
AS THE LIGHT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD DISAPPEAR BY THIS EVENING, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED.
FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY TRACK OVER WATERS WITH HIGH
ENERGY CONTENT.
THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
WORST CASE SCENARII SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LANDFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

We have Enawo from Reunion.

1900hurricane, why don't you use Reunion's English advisories? No Google Translate required.



That forecast track is worryingly close to Madagascar now.

Also a fun fact: since Enawo's outermost closed isobar is at 1400 km (755 nmi), it is now larger than any Atlantic or East Pacific storm that has outermost closed isobar data (every storm since 2004 + a few before that)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtma20.fimp..txt, recovered at: 2017-03-03 0745Z

WTMA20 FIMP 030715

THE TROPICAL STROM WHICH WAS EVOLVING TO THE SOUTH OF AGALEGA
HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND HAS BEEN NAMED
'ENAWO' BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SEVICES AT 03/0600 UTC ON 03/03/2017.

AT 03/0600 UTC, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (ENAWO) 998 HPA
WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

SQUALLY WEATHER REACHING 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

JTWC 09S NINE 170303 0600 12.7S 56.8E SHEM 35 996

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 56.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 56.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.3S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030506Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERIES. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A
030506Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.0-2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH
TEMPS OBSERVED NEAR 30C. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NETR TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA WITH REDUCED VWS AND
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FOREWORD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
PATTERN, BETWEEN THE NETR TO THE EAST AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 36, THE NETR WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS THE STR
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN, WITH A
635 NM SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS AT TAU 120. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF
THESE TRACKERS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS POOR AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

This is posted for sheer entertainment value, but the 18Z GFS is doing its thing in blowing up 95S to a phenomenal intensity. This system certainly has plenty of potential (by far the most so far this season), but we're not going to see a Tip challenger in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Max intensity is almost certain to occur prior to crossing 20*S.

Obsolete Tip challenger? That was 38 years ago, Recon stopped in 1987. More like Haiyan, Nida, Angela or Cimaron or other Super Typhoons.

[wxman57]

Note that at 15Z, the GFS has the center 90nm east of the current location. The ECMWF has the center only about 10nm from the current position. Most EC ensembles take the center inland into northern Madagascar, while all GFS ensembles take it south to Reunion Island. Canadian ensembles are even east of the GFS. Since the EC initialized best, it may have the right idea of a westerly movement (vs. southerly) and into Madagascar. In that case, there would be less time to strengthen. The EC has the central pressure down to 960mb at landfall in Madagascar.

[mrbagyo]

developing dual outflow channel

[cycloneye]

Moderate Tropical Storm ENAWO up to 45kts.Forecast to make landfall or brush Madagascar as a intense cyclone.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.meteomadagascar.mg/cyclone

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO), this Saturday 04-03-2017 at 01h local
Displacement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
Pressure in the center: 998 HPA
Location: Sea 765 Km NORTHEAST ANTALAHA (12.8 ° S / 57.0 ° E)
Threatened areas:
Grain times up to 300 MN around the center in the WESTER semicircle and the SOUTH-EAST quadrant
Gale 35 KT and strong to very strong sea extending to 50 MN in the semicircle WEST
High 30 KT and strong to very strong sea extending up to 60 NM in the NORTH-EAST quadrant, up to 130 NM in the SOUTH-WEST quadrant and up to 150 NM in the NORTH-WEST quadrant
Strong gusts under grains.
Forecast: expected position and intensity:
At 12 o'clock for the 03/03/2017 at 18H: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
At 24H for 04/03/2017 at 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS pressure chamber.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Enawo might still be struggling with a dry air wrap based on microwave imagery.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

09S ENAWO 170304 1800 13.7S 56.9E SHEM 65 981

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[1900hurricane]

Dry air has helped to keep Enawo in check thus far, but if the dry air wrap can be closed off, current structure alludes to quick intensification.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/838453223967100929

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/838519259642810368

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 MAR 2017 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 14:01:35 S Lon : 54:01:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 958.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Enawo will move over even warmer water, more fuel to work with if the plot is correct.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 MAR 2017 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:59 S Lon : 53:20:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 954.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : EYE

centre temp has warmed sine the last post, will it go into +.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like dry air has been walled off fairly well now.