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Some calculation west of kador looks iffy ,@1900hurricane for assessment chance plz.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
euro6208 wrote:The models especially EURO and GFS moves this towards the equator due to a strong high pressure associated with a large area of winds.
NWS expects more rains and winds for Yap and especially Palau.
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Some calculation west of kador looks iffy ,@1900hurricane for assessment chance plz.
Satellite imagery this afternoon showed a large area of showers and
thunderstorms south of Chuuk and Pohnpei. This area of showers is
occurring along and north of a surface trough. Models show a circulation
developing on the trough and moving across the western half of
Micronesia. At this time models keep the rain south of the Marianas.
Models do however hint at trade-wind convergence increasing over
the local area. This trade-wind convergence will increase clouds
and the chance of showers Wednesday. Some models hint at scattered
showers Wednesday afternoon through Friday. GFS is the model that
is depicting showers over the local area, while the ECMWF and
NAVGEM does not. With the model consensus as it is and with the
shower activity still far to the southeast will not add scattered
showers to the forecast at this time.
The GFS and ECMWF both depict a rainy pattern moving into Chuuk on
Tuesday and are in good agreement through Wednesday with a
circulation forming on the trough. On Thursday, the GFS takes the
circulation near Yap Thursday night and Friday, while the ECMWF
keeps the circulation south and moves it slowly toward Palau.
eventually being located south of Palau sometime on Wednesday. This
is a big departure from yesterday so models are not that stable on
this event. We need to keep both Palau and Yap up-to-date on the
evolving conditions.
A Near-equatorial trough stretched across western Micronesia south
of Palau and Yap. Activity along this trough will remain south of these
two locations through at least Wednesday night. The GFS and ECMWF
both depict a circulation forming on the trough. Both models are
in general agreement until Wednesday night. At that time they both
show the circulation southeast of Yap near 3N140E. After that
there are big differences in the model predictions. GFS briefly
breaks up the circulation into a trough before reforming the
circulation near Yap sometime on Thursday. ECMWF keeps the
circulation and moves it south of Palau late Friday. Either way,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at Palau
and Yap Thursday through Friday as the weather feature moves
across these two locations. If the GFS is correct than Palau could
get less rain than predicted. At this time the ECMWF seems more
realistic. Also wind directions from the ECMWF were followed as
the GFS seems too chaotic.
A buffer circulation has been lifting west-northwestward from 1N148E
over night and is near 4N146E this morning. This has caused the near-
equatorial trough connecting to it to also lift northward closer to
Koror. Expect isolated thunderstorms to continue near Koror with
scattered showers arriving by late this evening. Being farther north
of both the trough and circulation, fair conditions should hang on a
bit longer near Yap today. By early Thursday morning, convection
induced by converging winds near the northern periphery of the
circulation will spread over the island. There is somewhat better
agreement between the models regarding the future track of this
circulation. The GFS is still taking it north of Yap but a bit more
south at 12N. Both the ECMWF and NAVGEM are now also shifting the
circulation to near Yap at 10N. Still leaning toward the ECMWF and
NAVGEM, have altered the mid to long-range forecast for both Koror
and Yap to reflect this change. Introduced a period of variable
winds for Yap during the passage of the circulation center Thursday
night and Friday. Also shortened the duration of scattered showers
for Koror as they will be on the weaker southern side of the
circulation. Still do not expect significant development as upper-
level wind shear will remain a little strong thru Thursday. This
will be a potential heavy showers and gusty winds event, especially
for Yap thru Friday.
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