2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- cycloneye
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2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I am starting very early this annual thread for the models as important information about the upgrade to the new model that will suplant GFS.But it will be on 2018 for Paralell and 2019 for the new model.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/805838250032041984
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/805838250032041984
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Intertesting discussion about the improvements to the HWRF model.
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2016/12/1 ... er-review/
https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/810890337526882304
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2016/12/1 ... er-review/
https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/810890337526882304
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- weathaguyry
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Could this possibly be something subtropical going into the weekend? I would think not, but it did look at least somewhat interesting
GFS:
Euro:
GFS:
Euro:
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like everyone has there own funky system at 240
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Below is the complez timeframe for new upgrade to GFS in 2017.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823617408275390464
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823617408275390464
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
UKMET to be upgraded from 2017 thru 2019
One of the best models that did well in the 2016 season.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823611753653272576
One of the best models that did well in the 2016 season.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823611753653272576
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Is that subtropical development off the SE US coast the GFS and ECMWF are showing?
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- northjaxpro
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Should this feature develop in the next week, it should be far enough off the Southeast U.S. coast in which it should not pose any significant effects. Something to watch even if it is a mere curiosity for now. It is interesting to see such a feature this early on in the picture nonetheless.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just on a quick glance at the GFS image, 1000-500 mb thickness is decreasing towards the center, so probably non-tropical.
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
It's probably not happening in the way its depicted in the CMC, but the 12z was quite entertaining with regard to the Gulf of Mexico by throwing a subtropical/possibly tropical system in the mix. Just a pipe dream though. It originates from the Bay of Campeche here.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheAustinMan wrote:It's probably not happening in the way its depicted in the CMC, but the 12z was quite entertaining with regard to the Gulf of Mexico by throwing a subtropical/possibly tropical system in the mix. Just a pipe dream though. It originates from the Bay of Campeche here.
http://i.imgur.com/Npl1cwI.png
Wouldn't bet on it either but if other models show it it will probably be extratropical and be purely baroclinic
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Probably nothing to see here but both GFS and ECMWF are showing a weak low in Western Atlantic and Is not at very long range.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Ryan Maue about new GFS implementation:
New NOAA (USA) weather model (GFS) to be implemented in 2-months over objections of National Hurricane Center b/c of poor performance.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/838846950749392897
New NOAA (USA) weather model (GFS) to be implemented in 2-months over objections of National Hurricane Center b/c of poor performance.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/838846950749392897
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like NHC forecasters don't like so much the GFS latest upgrade.
http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurrican ... O3KZSn.Gqd
http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurrican ... O3KZSn.Gqd
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
New HMON that will replace the GFDL is coming very soon in time for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842029271501664256
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842029271501664256
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Wonder if tropicaltidbits.com will add HMON model runs?
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Wonder if tropicaltidbits.com will add HMON model runs?
It will be included to his site.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/842030384158281729
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
There is a solution to the regional models
Don't use the MU initial conditions and fields. Use the ECMWF
Don't use the MU initial conditions and fields. Use the ECMWF
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
@EricBlake12
#Hurricane track forecasting is an amazing success story over the past 4 decades thanks to model advances- Bravo @NWSEMC @ECMWF & others!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842055959136604163
#Hurricane track forecasting is an amazing success story over the past 4 decades thanks to model advances- Bravo @NWSEMC @ECMWF & others!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842055959136604163
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