2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Ssts are over rated waters always warm come June to support hurricane development. There goes the warm Atlantic many have been talking about
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/839494150403694595
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/839494150403694595
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
This has become a broken record for the Atlantic, with the MDR or Tropical Atlantic being hostile and unfavorable throughout the season. This has been an ongoing issue since the 2011 season.
Still too soon to say if the active-era has come to an end with yet another decent El Niño episode in the works just in time for the 2017 season. May not be till around 2020 until we can finally get the answer.
Still too soon to say if the active-era has come to an end with yet another decent El Niño episode in the works just in time for the 2017 season. May not be till around 2020 until we can finally get the answer.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
SFLcane, the North Atlantic basin is typically much more hostile for TC development from an environmental perspective than the eastern/western North Pacific basins. No surprise there. I think the major wild card in forecasts of the 2017 TC season is when and where a positive ENSO signal will establish itself. I would be surprised if the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific are both quiet throughout the season...
0 likes
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Alyono wrote:take a look at that Atlantic wide map. It does not match the GOM map. GOM SSTs have been well above average, which has lessened the fog season along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf map reflects that. The Atlantic wide map says the Gulf is COOLER than average
I think you were looking at the 7-day change in anomalies. So the Gulf cooled from it's relative anomalous state, but is still much warmer than normal. From what I see, the wide map still reflects an anomalously warm GoM.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.
Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf
Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf
1 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
SFLcane wrote:Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.
Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf
Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.
My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.
Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf
Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.
My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?
The PDO is a reflection, feedback loop of ENSO. The La Nina probably watered it down last season which was why most felt it was good to call for a more active season than the previous 3. The overall +PDO is an effect of the multiple years of El Nino since 2014 and will go negative if/and when more stronger push for a La Nina otherwise it will just hover neutral and warm. If there is another El Nino the PDO will likely spike.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Again ssts in my view are over ratted so many others factors come in play which as of now look horrid for 2017. Then again whats new.
Hopefully we get some interesting storms to see nhc's new products this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_p ... hanges.pdf
Last season was horridly slow until the PDO crashed in late September.
My question is what drives the PDO and what are the influences it has on the hurricane season one way or the other, and is it possible to predict what it will be ahead of time?
And even with the crash, we only had 3 named storms in the last 2 months and a week. Only 1 storm formed in October.
It's just that the three storms were Matthew, Nicole, Otto
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139715
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
The public update of the ECMWF MLSP March data for July,August and September is up and is very high pressures with dry air for North Atlantic and lower pressures and high instability for Pacific.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139715
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
SFLcane wrote:ugly luis....
Understandable that reaction.I sense you are not alone expressing about this.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Alyono wrote:Mega Hawaii season!
Wouldn't surprise me at all if the next Major Hurricane to hit the U.S. is on the Hawaiian Islands.
Seems after one average to slightly above average season in 2016 we are headed straight back to where we were in the several seasons prior to 2016, busy Pacific/dead Atlantic.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
SFLcane wrote:ugly luis....
I feel your pain SFLcane! Last season just wasn't enough excitement for one.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
- Posts: 1776
- Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I wonder, is that ECWMF pressure forecast showing what it does because "it presumes" that it will be correct in also developing a significant ENSO warm event? Perhaps one thing has something to do with another, I honestly do not know. Logic would dictate that if the ECWMF ENSO forecast is wrong (we won't know until a few months) then the ECMWF pressure forecast would also be wrong since the two would seemingly be related????
0 likes
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Alyono wrote:Mega Hawaii season!
How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)
0 likes
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
bg1 wrote:Alyono wrote:Mega Hawaii season!
How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)
from that pattern, I'd be more worried about storms forming to the SW and striking the more populated islands
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
bg1 wrote:Alyono wrote:Mega Hawaii season!
How will the Big Island escape landfalls this year? Can't wait to see! (Especially if we're going to have a boring Atlantic.)
Right?
In what other ways will models show a Hawaii hit and then back off in the last 48 hours? But in all seriousness, these past 3 years have been worrisome if not downright scary for Hawaii residents. Repeatedly having major hurricanes lurking 50 miles off shore of a group of population who are completely unprepared for a hurricane is no joke. Hope the 23 year streak of no hurricanes continues this season.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
The Atlantic MDR has had spike of above normal instability and it does look like a positive Atlantic tripole is setting up according to the NOAA charts so there is a few positives for the 2017 hurricane season, and the fact that it looks like we're heading for an El Nino but the atmosphere is just not cooperating but seems to be in a La Nina state and needs to switch it up for the El Nino not to be a madoki come summer
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139715
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/843849397548937216
The 7 day change map shows the cooling but is still March and things can change in the next few months.
First page of thread where daily update of graphics are posted
The 7 day change map shows the cooling but is still March and things can change in the next few months.
First page of thread where daily update of graphics are posted
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: HurricaneMaster_PR, islandgirl45, KirbyDude25 and 43 guests