WPAC: INVEST 91W

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170317 0600 7.0N 145.0E WPAC 15 1007

[euro6208]

A weak circulation was located to the southeast of Yap near 7N144E.
Models show this circulation weakening to just a trough by this
afternoon. The trough will slowly move west and low-level
convergence ahead of it will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to Palau and Yap this afternoon. The scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight at Yap
as the trough passes south of that location. The trough will be
west of Palau by Sunday afternoon, but low-level convergence in
its wake will prolong the scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Palau through Monday.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170318 0600 7.4N 136.9E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

EURO still mum on this. GFS however deepens this to 997 mb before landfall.

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170319 0600 8.8N 129.9E WPAC 15 1010

[1900hurricane]

91W is honestly not looking too bad right now. It has well consolidated vorticity mostly beneath somewhat consistent central convection and a good poleward outflow channel. It might not be closed to the south, but it certainly is close.

[1900hurricane]

With that said, I would not classify 91W now. I'd say the circulation is still open, and the best coalesced vorticity appears to be centered near 9*N, 129*E, a bit to the southwest of the best convective bits.

[1900hurricane]

Visible imagery clearly shows that 91W is open to the south.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 200932
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 10.7N

D. 126.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH 91W REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT FIX IS APPROACHING
LAND AND INTERACTION COULD DISRUPT THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL CENTER DOES
APPEAR TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FIX. 3 TENTHS BANDING
ON LOG SPIRAL GIVES DT=1.5. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170320 1200 10.3N 124.7E WPAC 20 1007

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170321 0000 13.0N 122.6E WPAC 20 1007

[euro6208]

POOF!