Texas Spring 2017

[Texas Snowman]

@TxStormChasers - 833PM: Baseball size hail falling in Little Elm. Storm moving toward Frisco. #dfwwx

[Texas Snowman]

@northtxwx - 8:30 PM - COLLIN CO. - Trained spotter reporting golf ball size hail near Frisco.

[Texas Snowman]

@wfaaweather - Tracking the hail core...approximate arrival times of baseball size hail in Collin County. Either side of 380 best chances. #wfaaweather

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, near McAlester, Oklahoma...

@StephenNehrenz - 8:40pm: Tornado WARNING now for W Pittsburg Co. Strong rotation & possible very large hail - take cover! Live coverage now on @NewsOn6.

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile crossing of the Red Sea split in urban core metroplex. Rains and activity just to the north, and to the south. Zilch for Dallas and Tarrant counties

Basically every model run that I saw until I stopped looking showed east or ESE motion with storms but those storms have steadily moved NE all evening. While the storms that fired to the SW of DFW followed the more eastward motion. End result - storms miss Dallas and Tarrant.

[JDawg512]

Could see the southern tip of storms skirt the very northern edges of the Austin Metropolitan area.

[JDawg512]

Sure enough a storm has moved into Williamson County.

[Texas Snowman]

Round two....

[bubba hotep]

The major rain event that the models were showing with the next syatem has faded pretty fast. Looks like maybe an inch or so for most areas but not the flooding rains models were showing last week. Also, as of now, timing looks off and that should limit svr wx threat for the bulk of DFW.

[Ntxw]

The major rain event that the models were showing with the next syatem has faded pretty fast. Looks like maybe an inch or so for most areas but not the flooding rains models were showing last week. Also, as of now, timing looks off and that should limit svr wx threat for the bulk of DFW.

This has been the trend the past 60 days or so. Under-performing qpf events. The Nina-esque atmospheric conditions over parts of the tropical Pacific just won't cut it.

At least until a real WWB coupled with SOI will I buy into a heavy rain event for us. While we are waiting for rain, moderate drought is spreading north of I-20 and less than 1" event won't slow it down.

[Ntxw]

Looking at 850 u-wind the equatorial Pacific trades weaken but it looks like another burst near the dateline in early April. Far different than the what the CFSv2 was showing. If we don't start the pedal on El Nino, we're running out of time given the slow progression to see the Nino by summer and god forbid we pull another Nina or cold neutral. Without the Nino the lagging second year after Nina summers...are bad, even worse if drought spreads.

[srainhoutx]

The major rain event that the models were showing with the next syatem has faded pretty fast. Looks like maybe an inch or so for most areas but not the flooding rains models were showing last week. Also, as of now, timing looks off and that should limit svr wx threat for the bulk of DFW.

This has been the trend the past 60 days or so. Under-performing qpf events. The Nina-esque atmospheric conditions over parts of the tropical Pacific just won't cut it.

At least until a real WWB coupled with SOI will I buy into a heavy rain event for us. While we are waiting for rain, moderate drought is spreading north of I-20 and less than 1" event won't slow it down.

Your neighbors to the South are seeing relief from the dry weather. This week into the weekend looks very active along the I-10 Corridor from San Antonio into portions of Central, SE and East Texas extending into Louisiana where we may see rainfall totals approaching 6+ inches over the next 7 days. The Wednesday Storm System may bring all modes of severe weather across portions of SE and East Texas and the Weekend Storm System appears to have PW's near or slightly above 2 inches suggesting rainfall rate of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may be possible where stronger storms develop along and North of a Coastal wave and the potential of additional severe storms as a secondary 500mb disturbance rotates across the I-35 Corridor Saturday night into early next Monday.

[Ntxw]

Your neighbors to the South are seeing relief from the dry weather. This week into the weekend looks very active along the I-10 Corridor from San Antonio into portions of Central, SE and East Texas extending into Louisiana where we may see rainfall totals approaching 6+ inches over the next 7 days. The Wednesday Storm System may bring all modes of severe weather across portions of SE and East Texas and the Weekend Storm System appears to have PW's near or slightly above 2 inches suggesting rainfall rate of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may be possible where stronger storms develop along and North of a Coastal wave and the potential of additional severe storms as a secondary 500mb disturbance rotates across the I-35 Corridor Saturday night into early next Monday.

You guys have and I'm hopeful it will spread northward. I've made posts earlier in the month that the closer you are to the gulf coast the better off you will be and so far it has panned out that way.

[Brent]

Never expected average temps for my parents visit at the end of the work week... Maybe even some 40s in the morning away from the heat island? I mean what? I was prepared for 90s the way its been going.

Interested to see how next weekend trends... feel like we've been down this road before with a heavy rain event a week out that trends drier.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I hope all of you are safe with the storms up north. I need a washout of rain down here in SE texas. Going to start measuring the pollen fall like snow soon. Its everywhere and friday night .15" of rain wasnt enough. Hoping Wednesday we get much more rain.

[wxman22]

look at all the rain the GFS is showing over the weekend into early next week, it shows up to 10 inches of rain in East Texas fwiw

[aggiecutter]

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don't like to hear that at all.

[JDawg512]

We missed out the last two systems so this next one better at least drop an inch in my yard. We look to be in a good position for some impressive storms tomorrow evening. The nice slow rains we had earlier in the month seem like a distant memory. Its time for some wetness to occure!

[EF-5bigj]

I'm impressed with the amount of supercells right now and large hail.