Severe Weather event East Texas / LA / Miss / Ala / GA - April 2 -3

[WeatherGuesser]

What's the Brownwood area like for population?

[Shoshana]

I've been reading as much as I can about tomorrow and the Austin/ Round Rock area (I35 corridor). I have to work and I'm trying to keep up with everything! And I'm worried about hail and my car...

I hope everyone stays safe!

[JDawg512]

That HRRR model still shows Austin not getting much rain let alone severe storms. As I mentioned in the Texas spring thread earlier, definetly don't want to see dangerous storms but would like some decent rainfall.

[cycloneye]

The 1z HRRR looks very bad.Hopefully,is wrong.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/848360955826360320

[cycloneye]

2z HRRR.I-10 will be the line to follow to see how Houston does on Sunday with this event.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/848366463010340864

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just coming to post it looks like it keeps most if not all development well north of the houston/Galveston and all of SW/South central la areas. Might see a decent shift north with the next severe outlook

[cycloneye]

00z sounding for Lufkin area looks prime for severe activity.

 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/848370467144691712

[EF-5bigj]

Tornado watch coming in the next few hours. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0396.html

[cycloneye]

Tornado watch coming in the next few hours. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0396.html

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-central and southwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
until 600 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...At first, a pair of thunderstorms moving out of Mexico
will pose a threat for large, damaging hail and severe gusts. With
time, additional storm development is expected on either side of the
international border, moving into an environment increasingly
favorable for a tornado or two as well. See SPC mesoscale
discussion 396 for initial meteorological reasoning.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to
45 miles east southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.

...Edwards

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/848377912625594368

[wxman22]

It kinda has become a question of which models do you go with? The GFS,EURO,CMC which have been consistently showing thunderstorms all the way into the coastal counties, or the higher resolution mesoscale models which have been consistently showing most of the activity staying north of I-10. Even the latest 0z GFS still shows thunderstorms all the way to the coast. And the 0z CMC also

[EF-5bigj]

Im not liking the discrete nature of the storms repeatedly showing up in the models.

[bubba hotep]

N. Texas storms could be setting up the mesoscale environment for tomorrow via outflow boundaries

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/848398866470772736

[Alyono]

Houston removed from moderate risk. Moderate risk much smaller. Wonder if this ends up a bust like the Dixie Alley forecast on Thursday

[South Texas Storms]

Houston removed from moderate risk. Moderate risk much smaller. Wonder if this ends up a bust like the Dixie Alley forecast on Thursday

Don't think so. Someone in the Ark-La-Tex area is likely going to get slammed. Possibly by a derecho.

[EF-5bigj]

I think it could still go high risk just in a smaller area.

[cycloneye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND MUCH OF EAST TEXAS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas
eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley today and into tonight.
A concentrated area of significant wind damage is likely near and
north of the I-20 corridor in east Texas and Louisiana. The risk
for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/damaging, will probably
maximize near and south of I-20 in Texas and Louisiana, along with
the threat for hail.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will evolve into an open wave and move from
northern Mexico/Far West TX eastward to the ArkLaTex by early Monday
morning. A broad area of surface low pressure over the Rio Grande
Valley will consolidate and develop northeast across central TX
during the day and be near the OK/AR border at the end of the
period. A maritime warm front will advance northward across the
northwest Gulf Coast region during the day as a cold front
accelerates eastward across central TX during the afternoon and into
LA during the overnight.

...Central TX eastward into the lower MS Valley...
A multi-hazard, likely multi-scenario forecast with intrinsic
complexity/uncertainty is seemingly evident for today into tonight.
Late Saturday evening surface analysis and radar imagery show rich
low-level moisture over the TX coast with a developing thunderstorm
cluster in the middle Rio Grande Valley. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over central TX. Severe
gusts/wind damage appears to be the predominate threat with the
early-day MCS. As the surface low deepens, a concurrent strong
low-level mass response will occur and the development of a 50-kt
LLJ by mid morning is expected. Strong low-level moist advection on
the nose of the LLJ will be favorable for a continuation of early
morning storms as the LLJ's terminus shifts eastward from
east-central TX into the ArkLaTex by mid-late afternoon. A
concentrated zone of higher probability wind potential may be
realized with a potential bowing system as increasing buoyancy
(1000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong shear lead to an intense bowing
MCS moving from TX into the ArkLaTex.

Coincident with the diurnal heating cycle, free warm sector
thunderstorm initiation is likely from east TX into LA on the
northern rim of the elevated mixed layer's stronger capping
inversion (north of Interstate 10). Persistent south-to-north
oriented confluence zones in the warm sector will serve as the
genesis areas with gradual thunderstorm/supercell development as
stronger updrafts penetrate the LFC---beginning as early as the late
morning and through the afternoon. A moderate to very unstable
boundary layer (MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg) is forecast from
eastern parts of TX into LA. Forecast soundings show large
hodographs (200-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) with strong effective shear of
at least 50-kt. It seems plausible several supercells may evolve
from this activity and pose a threat for tornadoes and large to very
large hail. A couple of strong/damaging tornadoes are possible.
The latest model guidance suggests thunderstorm coverage will be
less generally south of Interstate 10. Nonetheless, models show
isolated to widely scattered storms developing perhaps in
conjunction with stronger deep forcing for ascent.

During the evening and overnight over the lower MS Valley, storms
will likely spread into the region from the west. Increasing
moisture/buoyancy as the maritime front advances northward will
favor an organized severe storm risk continuing into the region.
Thunderstorms within the strong flow fields will conditionally
support the possibility for wind damage and tornadoes after dark.

..Smith/Gleason.. 04/02/2017

[cycloneye]

New Tornado Watch soon.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweathertoo/status/848487102761357312

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued.Includes Austin,San Antonio,College Station and Conroe just north of Houston.

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848489912949239808