Texas Spring 2017

[Shoshana]

We're in Lewisville. There's a severe section of this storm pointing right at us. Too late to do anything about the car... sounds like we're getting hail!

Edited to add, we put moving pads on the car lol. Hail was smaller than it sounded, pea to grape size.

[bubba hotep]

Way more active night for DFW than I had anticipated. Luckily, no significant hail IMBY.

[Brent]

Way more active night for DFW than I had anticipated. Luckily, no significant hail IMBY.

Yeah I'm pretty surprised at how active the radar is too.

[South Texas Storms]

What a bust for south central Texas. Every model indicated widespread showers and storms moving across the region this morning and we have barely seen any activity develop. Very depressing.

[TexasF6]

Very disappointed in this bust. No good rains anywhere.....

[Ntxw]

DFW picked up a bit more rain overnight to about 3/4th's an inch total since yesterday. Heaviest total so far is down near Waco where some areas had over 3". Central and south Texas so far has been a bust

[weatherdude1108]

The forecast and models were all a complete bust(??). We got slightly over a quarter of an inch, and that was mostly in the 5 to 6pm hour with a heavy shower that rolled through. They said around Killeen they got 9.5 inches! Some got too much, some got almost nothing. That was the most hyped up forecast.

[Ntxw]

The forecast and models were all a complete bust(??). We got slightly over a quarter of an inch, and that was mostly in the 5 to 6pm hour with a heavy shower that rolled through. They said around Killeen they got 9.5 inches! Some got too much, some got almost nothing. That was the most hyped up forecast.

Unfortunately that's the nature of such forecast. It all depended on where the frontal boundary stalled. Areas outside gets very little. It's not a huge system with lift for everybody from upper support, but forcing along the boundary.

[Portastorm]

The forecast and models were all a complete bust(??). We got slightly over a quarter of an inch, and that was mostly in the 5 to 6pm hour with a heavy shower that rolled through. They said around Killeen they got 9.5 inches! Some got too much, some got almost nothing. That was the most hyped up forecast.

Unfortunately that's the nature of such forecast. It all depended on where the frontal boundary stalled. Areas outside gets very little. It's not a huge system with lift for everybody from upper support, but forcing along the boundary.

Last night's non-event was extraordinary to me in that I cannot recall very many times when ALL of the model guidance was off. The short-range, hi-res models ... the globals ... all of them busted badly for South Central Texas. Would make for a great case study I think.

[Tireman4]

The forecast and models were all a complete bust(??). We got slightly over a quarter of an inch, and that was mostly in the 5 to 6pm hour with a heavy shower that rolled through. They said around Killeen they got 9.5 inches! Some got too much, some got almost nothing. That was the most hyped up forecast.

Unfortunately that's the nature of such forecast. It all depended on where the frontal boundary stalled. Areas outside gets very little. It's not a huge system with lift for everybody from upper support, but forcing along the boundary.

Last night's non-event was extraordinary to me in that I cannot recall very many times when ALL of the model guidance was off. The short-range, hi-res models ... the globals ... all of them busted badly for South Central Texas. Would make for a great case study I think.

A paper, I would assume.

[bubba hotep]

The forecast and models were all a complete bust(??). We got slightly over a quarter of an inch, and that was mostly in the 5 to 6pm hour with a heavy shower that rolled through. They said around Killeen they got 9.5 inches! Some got too much, some got almost nothing. That was the most hyped up forecast.

Unfortunately that's the nature of such forecast. It all depended on where the frontal boundary stalled. Areas outside gets very little. It's not a huge system with lift for everybody from upper support, but forcing along the boundary.

Last night's non-event was extraordinary to me in that I cannot recall very many times when ALL of the model guidance was off. The short-range, hi-res models ... the globals ... all of them busted badly for South Central Texas. Would make for a great case study I think.

As Ntxw stated, it is always tricky when the main upper level energy races off to the NE leaving behind a weak cold front with no clear signs of focused forcing beyond the frontal boundary. We are all aware of the issues that the models have with trying to resolve frontal position, so that didn't help. The hi-res CAMs typically do better with frontal position. However, IIRC, they all had much more robust convection along the front than we saw. Since they overdid convection, they were probably too aggressive with cold pool development and frontal propagation. So the front didn't make it as far south as the models were showing.

[weatherdude1108]

We were severe warned for a little while there (office and house). Half dollar size hail. It fell apart as it approached thankfully.

My office is near the lobby. They were having training in the training room nearby. I heard some "Whooaaaaah" and "Wow!" comments. It was POURING down rain here at the office a few minutes ago.

I kid you not, there were at least 25 people in the lobby just staring out the window, like they were in a trance and just saw God in the flesh or something. They act like they've never seen heavy rain before.lol I just thought it was comical.

[weatherdude1108]

Unfortunately that's the nature of such forecast. It all depended on where the frontal boundary stalled. Areas outside gets very little. It's not a huge system with lift for everybody from upper support, but forcing along the boundary.

Last night's non-event was extraordinary to me in that I cannot recall very many times when ALL of the model guidance was off. The short-range, hi-res models ... the globals ... all of them busted badly for South Central Texas. Would make for a great case study I think.

As Ntxw stated, it is always tricky when the main upper level energy races off to the NE leaving behind a weak cold front with no clear signs of focused forcing beyond the frontal boundary. We are all aware of the issues that the models have with trying to resolve frontal position, so that didn't help. The hi-res CAMs typically do better with frontal position. However, IIRC, they all had much more robust convection along the front than we saw. Since they overdid convection, they were probably too aggressive with cold pool development and frontal propagation. So the front didn't make it as far south as the models were showing.

Yeah, I guess it does make it harder to try to pin down a forecast when there is no clear upper air support or the upper support departs, and just leaves left over boundaries, which have minds of their own given free reign, and subsequently wreak havoc on the forecast models.

[JDawg512]

My arch enemy, the Dry Miser, stuck some sort of barrier over South Austin Hospital and my neighborhood. Rain all around but little falling here. I'm assuming that will change but I'm not sure I'll get a whole lot. Too much for some, not enough for others..

[Tireman4]

It is all coming our way..oh yea......

US64 KHGX 111725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.AVIATION...
Overnight convection that was just north of the CWA is continuing
to sag south into the rest of the region at this time. Have added
the mention of TSRA in the TAFS based on current trends. Clearing
skies expected overnight and along with lighter winds/wet grounds
have kept with the mention of patchy fog toward sunrise tomorrow.
Going with SCT/BKN CU tomorrow afternoon, but likely VFR. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/

UPDATE...
Storms are continuing to track further south. Adjusted the
forecast to account for the radar trends as precip continues to
fill in just north of I-10. Bumped up PoPs to account for the
shower and thunderstorm development.

Hathaway

[Cpv17]

I'm not sure if I would call this event a bust. I just think that the rain is coming later than many expected for a lot of us I guess due to how slow the movement of the front has been. I-10 from Beaumont to San Antonio is lit up like a Christmas tree with storms right now. And they all said it would be over by noon in the Houston area lol looks like it's just getting started!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good solid showers here. Take it. Like Ntx taught us, we need to keep the grass green in this state. It will help keep high pressures from building up in the summer time! A good state wide soaker will help.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like we have more opportunities over the coming week for widespread rain (instead of a tench of an inch here and 9 inches a mile away) assuming the models are correct.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 111928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the
central plains through Texas to northern Mexico and a ridge to the
west. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Georgetown to
Pandale. The cold front will stall and dissipate across our CWA and
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight and Wednesday. Rain chances will retreat to the west
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A combination of moist low level flow and a series of upper level
disturbances will keep slight chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast each day through Friday. A more intense upper level trough
will swing through the central plains Saturday bringing a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Another upper
level trough will bring a chance for thunderstorms Monday.

[aggiecutter]

Very heavy rains last night and this morning in East and NE Texas, NW Louisiana, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas. Some places received up to 8" of rain. I received a little over 2" at my house.

[bubba hotep]

Very heavy rains last night and this morning in East and NE Texas, NW Louisiana, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas. Some places received up to 8" of rain. I received a little over 2" at my house.

This image should look even better with the next update!