WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

As of 00Z, JMA has marked 92W as a Tropical Depression on their surface analysis.

WWJP25 RJTD 130000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 950 HPA
AT 50N 151E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 151E TO 51N 157E 43N 166E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 166E TO 40N 167E 35N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 166E TO 35N 160E 31N 152E 25N 144E 22N 136E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 51N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 150E 36N 160E
50N 160E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 30N 175E 25N 152E 30N 150E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 58N 172E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 134E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 30N 123E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 35N 180E EAST 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[1900hurricane]

92W's vorticity is goos, especially in the mid-levels, but ASCAT shows that there still is nothing more than a wave axis at the surface.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZAPR2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 134.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL. A 13/0046Z
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH A POORLY-DEFINED
CENTER AND A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN ELONGATED,
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU
REFLECT THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-
10 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1008MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP INCREASE OF 0.5MB. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT (GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING
WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT) AND SHOW A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Interesting read.

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 130302
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 9.7N

D. 135.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN .2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET=1.5 AND
PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

* HWRF 2017041300 *
* WP92 INVEST *

-------------------------------------------------- ---- STORM DATA -------------------------------------------- --------------

NTIME 022
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126
LAT (DEG) 7.4 8.1 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.3
LON (DEG) 134.3 132.7 131.7 130.4 129.4 128.5 127.7 127.1 126.3 125.6 125.0 123.8 122.6 121.3 120.0 118.5 117.3 116.7 116.2 116.1 115.8 115.9
MAXWIND (KT) 22 36 34 36 35 39 47 50 58 52 38 45 40 36 40 37 40 39 38 42 40 27
RMW (KM) 118 92 98 53 110 89 22 114 96 76 135 85 112 92 30 81 60 36 130 86 97 76
MIN_SLP (MB) 1010 1001 1005 1003 1005 1000 1000 994 994 991 998 1000 1005 1005 1005 1003 1001 999 1001 1000 1004 1003

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 134.5E TO 11.1N 126.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CORE CONVECTION. A 13/0700Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHERLY, INDICATIVE OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CIRCULATION, AND
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 0.5MB.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT (GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT) AND SHOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 130935

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (N OF PALAU)

B. 13/0850Z

C. 9.27N

D. 133.27E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT 1.0. MET/PT N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track position.

Location: 9.4°N 132.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 132123

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 13/2110Z

C. 10.31N

D. 130.78E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND DT ARE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1627Z 10.15N 131.23E AMS2
13/1742Z 10.40N 130.90E SSMI


MARTINEZ


TXPQ25 KNES 132058
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 13/2030Z

C. 9.6N

D. 130.9E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT-1.5 BASED ON .3+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 170414 0000 10.1N 130.4E WPAC 20 1009

[1900hurricane]

Getting closer, but not quite there yet.

[1900hurricane]

Based on Metop-A scatterometer and microwave data as well as trends in visible imagery, I think I might actually pull the trigger for a renumber at 06Z. I'd say 25 kt very near 10.1*N, 130.0*E.

[euro6208]

Indeed.

02W TWO 170414 0000 10.2N 130.6E WPAC 20 1005

02W is born.

[cycloneye]

It will not be the first named storm of 2017.Only a rainmaker for Visayas

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE, LIMITED BANDING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION (CURRENTLY, MSI INDICATES THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM). TD 02W MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILLIPINES AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER
TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 140924

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)

B. 14/0850Z

C. 10.46N

D. 129.11E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.5. CONVCN DISSIPATING SLIGHTLY, DT
UNREPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN


TXPQ25 KNES 140903
TCSWNP

A. 02W (NONAME)

B. 14/0830Z

C. 10.6N

D. 129.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]