Texas Spring 2017

[Ntxw]

It's trying. But it may run out of gas before it gets here.

[Ntxw]

Big crash of the daily SOI. Usually spells a period of very heavy rain for the state a little down the road

10 Apr 2017 1011.86 1006.80 19.25 3.03 -1.33
11 Apr 2017 1010.11 1005.60 15.28 3.79 -1.26
12 Apr 2017 1009.51 1005.60 10.96 3.97 -1.13
13 Apr 2017 1008.80 1008.65 -16.15 3.22 -1.27
14 Apr 2017 1008.58 1011.00 -34.68 2.08 -1.53

April 20-22 might be a period to watch along with severe weather

[bubba hotep]

Monster storm this evening in the Panhandle!

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/853056306315272192

[Ntxw]

Monster storm this evening in the Panhandle!

The wedge it put down near Dimmit was huge. Probably the biggest I've seen this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz7AImzru5I

[bubba hotep]

Big crash of the daily SOI. Usually spells a period of very heavy rain for the state a little down the road

10 Apr 2017 1011.86 1006.80 19.25 3.03 -1.33
11 Apr 2017 1010.11 1005.60 15.28 3.79 -1.26
12 Apr 2017 1009.51 1005.60 10.96 3.97 -1.13
13 Apr 2017 1008.80 1008.65 -16.15 3.22 -1.27
14 Apr 2017 1008.58 1011.00 -34.68 2.08 -1.53

April 20-22 might be a period to watch along with severe weather

The SPC is on that time frame:



It will be interesting to watch this unfold. The GEFS has the MJO in P8 around then and that wouldn't seem to favor a big tornado outbreak. The GEFS AAM is a bit more favorable but it has a fast and low bias, so it probably won't end up in a favorable phase by then. The EPS is showing a very low amplitude MJO, which isn't as strong of a svr signal as a more amp wave during April/May. However, all the models may be projecting a CCKW onto the MJO phase space, so that might not be of much use in the end. It seems like some of the long range indicators are not indicating a tornado outbreak signal but there may still be plenty of svr wx. This could make for an interesting case study. It's just really hard to try and pin down svr wx at any distance, even more so than winter wx.

[bubba hotep]

That cell is Tornado warned again! and those areas to the north of Dimmit, TX are approaching 15" or rain!

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/853104548076040192

[Brent]

That Dimmit tornado was incredible and very surprising to me...

and yeah I'm really interested in next weekend's system. Could be one of the last real cold fronts for a few months. Models actually have some below normal temps for a couple days.

[bubba hotep]

I wonder what kind of rating this thing will end up with?

[Ntxw]

The GTG estimates >200mph suggested EF4 or EF5 but of course we know (El Reno 2013) unless it hit something substantial EF3.

Seeing as there was some damage, I'll guess the in between with EF4

[bubba hotep]

Tomorrow afternoon could be interesting if overnight storms in Oklahoma can kick an outflow boundary into N. TX

[bubba hotep]

Tomorrow afternoon could be interesting if overnight storms in Oklahoma can kick an outflow boundary into N. TX

The 12z Texas Tech 3k WRF also points to multiple rounds of storms firing in N. Texas in association with outflow boundaries over the next couple of days.

[JDawg512]

The GTG estimates >200mph suggested EF4 or EF5 but of course we know (El Reno 2013) unless it hit something substantial EF3.

Seeing as there was some damage, I'll guess the in between with EF4

That was an incredible tornado from a meteorological standpoint. It's interesting you mentioned El Reno because this is the first tornado since then that can compare in terms of structure in my opinion. That was the first thing that popped into my head when it reached it's peak was how eerily similar it looked.


As far as the weather around here is concerned, this rain miser is getting angry. Haven't had any rain. Going by today's EWX discussion, it doesn't look like the chances are that great over the next week. Monday's the best chance and even then it will have to do with the right timing and location. I want rain!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Happy Easter everyone! Rain chances will be returning to Texas later today through Tuesday as the next disturbance moves eastward across the state. Some models are indicating that a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the Rio Grande this evening and then track eastward across central Texas tonight. Other models are indicating that scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon through Tuesday across much of the state. So therefore, confidence on when it will rain is low, however it does look like much of the state will likely receive at least some rain over the next few days.

[Ntxw]

So far it turns out to be the case like El Reno with the storm the other night. Rating thus far of EF3. With it being a damage scale, if nothing in the way is built strong enough to support evidence thats what they went by.

[Ntxw]

Looks like some anomalous cool air should make it here by late week. 40s for mid to late april is pretty chilly.

[bubba hotep]

Watch out for the Panhandle but currently the best storm is down in the Red River Valley



 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/853709876052275208

[JDawg512]

Happy Easter.


I'm not as enthusiastic about rain chances through the end of the month. Sure some will get rain but others may not see much. It will be highly dependent on location since nothing jumps out as a wide spread coverage type scenario and in that context it's a sure bet some areas will get shafted.

Was just looking over some of the short range models. As far as Austin is concerned only a couple show rain hitting us. Most have it missing to the south. I'm gonna have to make some adjustments on my rain machine...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Seems like the NWS is struggling with our forecasts lately. The decent to high rain chances just really aren't panning out, at least for my area. We also haven't had any severe weather so far this spring, which is also strange.

[weatherdude1108]

Happy Easter.


I'm not as enthusiastic about rain chances through the end of the month. Sure some will get rain but others may not see much. It will be highly dependent on location since nothing jumps out as a wide spread coverage type scenario and in that context it's a sure bet some areas will get shafted.

Was just looking over some of the short range models. As far as Austin is concerned only a couple show rain hitting us. Most have it missing to the south. I'm gonna have to make some adjustments on my rain machine...

Yeah, what the ---- happened to our 60% rain chances today?? I saw it went down to 40% per NWS, and even 20% KXAN was saying for Saturday, which was 50%.
Evaporating before our eyes.

I am already thinking I am going to turn on my sprinkler system Saturday, which is my watering day, all dependent on how much (if any) rain we get this week. That MCV to our south is sucking away the energy from us.
We need to put some gas in that rain machine of yours!

Just....UGH.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy Easter.


I'm not as enthusiastic about rain chances through the end of the month. Sure some will get rain but others may not see much. It will be highly dependent on location since nothing jumps out as a wide spread coverage type scenario and in that context it's a sure bet some areas will get shafted.

Was just looking over some of the short range models. As far as Austin is concerned only a couple show rain hitting us. Most have it missing to the south. I'm gonna have to make some adjustments on my rain machine...

Yeah, what the ---- happened to our 60% rain chances today?? I saw it went down to 40% per NWS, and even 20% KXAN was saying for Saturday, which was 50%.
Evaporating before our eyes.

I am already thinking I am going to turn on my sprinkler system Saturday, which is my watering day, all dependent on how much (if any) rain we get this week. That MCV to our south is sucking away the energy from us.
We need to put some gas in that rain machine of yours!

Just....UGH.

Now hold on weatherdude...don't go jumping off a cliff just yet.

I think we'll start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later this morning and into the afternoon as daytime heating interacts with the MCV near our area. We weren't supposed to get rain last night anyway...the best chances were always with daytime heating today. Patience grasshopper