
ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- jaguarjace
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ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
91L INVEST 170417 1200 32.7N 47.1W ATL 50 986


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Second Invest of the year and it's only April 17th! 



Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
weathaguyry wrote:This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.
Unless it is a immediate threat to land or the U.S. or is a borderline Tropical Cyclone the NHC seems to rarely awaken during the off-season for these things.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

It's in a fairly low shear environment
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- cycloneye
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ATL: ARLENE - Models
A large circle.


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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Haven't seen a storm floater put up yet. 

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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Very interesting, yet another invest and it's only mid-April! This is starting to get me to believe that we'll see much more activity in the first half of the season than there was last year, especially if El Niño develops in the fall.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Already has 50kt winds.


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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
First TWO of the year!


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- Vince_and_Grace_fan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The first HWRF run expect pretty good (subtrpical) structure, already tomorrow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=91L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2017041712&fh=0


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Wouldn't surprise me if we manage to get Arlene from this. Like the past 6-7 years the Subtropical Atlantic is the new MDR. 

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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
WOW! I can't believe that this is all happening so fast! I wonder if we'll see Arlene soon, I would have assumed that the NHC wouldn't bother with this like they didn't bother with the one in March, but I guess I was wrong!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
Extratropical at 18z.
AL, 91, 2017041718, , BEST, 0, 323N, 452W, 45, 987, EX
Location: 32.3°N 45.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 330 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 110 NM
AL, 91, 2017041718, , BEST, 0, 323N, 452W, 45, 987, EX
Location: 32.3°N 45.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 330 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 110 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
From Alicia Bentley's webpage.
I thought it was fun to track the PV anomaly from a central US cyclone last week march across the SE US and into the SW Atlantic before interacting with the midlatitude cyclone over the north-central Atlantic.

I thought it was fun to track the PV anomaly from a central US cyclone last week march across the SE US and into the SW Atlantic before interacting with the midlatitude cyclone over the north-central Atlantic.

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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%
This invest reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Ana from 2003. Similar location, exact same time, and it developed as a subtropical storm. It's listed as an analog here.


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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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